{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4366197463","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2304.06877","title":"Why Topological Data Analysis Detects Financial Bubbles?","display_name":"Why Topological Data Analysis Detects Financial Bubbles?","publication_year":2023,"publication_date":"2023-04-14","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4366197463","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2304.06877"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:arx:papers:2304.06877","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/pdf/2304.06877","pdf_url":"http://arxiv.org/pdf/2304.06877","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["arxiv","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2304.06877","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5001871878","display_name":"Samuel W. Akingbade","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6515-4073","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6515-4073"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Akingbade, Samuel W.","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5084028602","display_name":"Marian Gidea","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4248-9890","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4248-9890"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Gidea, Marian","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5035147353","display_name":"Matteo Manzi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5229-0746","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5229-0746"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Manzi, Matteo","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5079167196","display_name":"Vahid Nateghi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7343-3948","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7343-3948"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Nateghi, Vahid","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":3,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11270","display_name":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","score":0.5913000106811523,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11270","display_name":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","score":0.5913000106811523,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12536","display_name":"Topological and Geometric Data Analysis","score":0.34940001368522644,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1703","display_name":"Computational Theory and Mathematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13377","display_name":"Ecosystem dynamics and resilience","score":0.013299999758601189,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/topological-data-analysis","display_name":"topological data analysis","score":0.9919999837875366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/asset-bubbles","display_name":"asset price bubbles","score":0.9950000047683716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/early-warning-indicators","display_name":"early warning indicators","score":0.972000002861023},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/regime-shifts","display_name":"tipping points","score":0.9729999899864197},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/asset-price-dynamics","display_name":"asset price dynamics","score":0.6940000057220459},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bitcoin-price","display_name":"Bitcoin price","score":0.800000011920929},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/super-exponential-growth","display_name":"super-exponential growth","score":0.7049999833106995}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76178495","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4808784","display_name":"Asset (computer security)","level":2,"score":0.6497205495834351},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C16171025","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q863349","display_name":"Singularity","level":2,"score":0.5346393585205078},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C98184364","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1780131","display_name":"Argument (complex analysis)","level":2,"score":0.506311297416687},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C180205008","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q159190","display_name":"Amplitude","level":2,"score":0.4998962879180908},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C87040749","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q428971","display_name":"Power law","level":2,"score":0.48767173290252686},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C173801870","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q201413","display_name":"Heuristic","level":2,"score":0.48032012581825256},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4554169178009033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C19244329","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q208697","display_name":"Financial market","level":2,"score":0.4442325234413147},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C196298200","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q577705","display_name":"Critical point (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.4409513771533966},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C29825287","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1427940","display_name":"Warning system","level":2,"score":0.440387487411499},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.41887056827545166},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.3818609118461609},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121864883","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q677916","display_name":"Statistical physics","level":1,"score":0.3669213056564331},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.361491322517395},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.34062206745147705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10138342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43015","display_name":"Finance","level":1,"score":0.27404677867889404},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.24440458416938782},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134306372","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7754","display_name":"Mathematical analysis","level":1,"score":0.21625342965126038},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.21535363793373108},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.1886049211025238},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C38652104","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3510521","display_name":"Computer security","level":1,"score":0.1573309600353241},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C55493867","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7094","display_name":"Biochemistry","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185592680","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2329","display_name":"Chemistry","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76155785","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q418","display_name":"Telecommunications","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:arx:papers:2304.06877","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/pdf/2304.06877","pdf_url":"http://arxiv.org/pdf/2304.06877","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2304.06877","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/2304.06877","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2304.06877","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2304.06877","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2304.06877","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2304.06877","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2304.06877","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/2304.06877","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2304.06877","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4366197463.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4366197463.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":2,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W3203589299","https://openalex.org/W7036871427"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4389351441","https://openalex.org/W2581917360","https://openalex.org/W2952040755","https://openalex.org/W4414401868","https://openalex.org/W2597495304","https://openalex.org/W4226478288","https://openalex.org/W3119351731","https://openalex.org/W4413521445","https://openalex.org/W3210036786","https://openalex.org/W3112545626"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"We":[0,67],"present":[1],"a":[2,62,92],"heuristic":[3],"argument":[4,26],"for":[5],"the":[6,30,71,77,100],"propensity":[7],"of":[8,18,46,94],"Topological":[9],"Data":[10],"Analysis":[11],"(TDA)":[12],"to":[13],"detect":[14],"early":[15,81],"warning":[16,82],"signals":[17],"critical":[19,63],"transitions":[20],"in":[21,54,58,99],"financial":[22,39],"time":[23],"series.":[24],"Our":[25],"is":[27,74],"based":[28],"on":[29,91],"Log-Periodic":[31],"Power":[32],"Law":[33],"Singularity":[34],"(LPPLS)":[35],"model,":[36],"which":[37],"characterizes":[38],"bubbles":[40,98],"as":[41],"super-exponential":[42],"growth":[43],"(or":[44],"decay)":[45],"an":[47,85],"asset":[48],"price":[49],"superimposed":[50],"with":[51,76],"oscillations":[52],"increasing":[53],"frequency":[55],"and":[56,96],"decreasing":[57],"amplitude":[59],"when":[60],"approaching":[61],"transition":[64],"(tipping":[65],"point).":[66],"show":[68],"that":[69],"whenever":[70],"LPPLS":[72],"model":[73],"fitting":[75],"data,":[78],"TDA":[79],"generates":[80],"signals.":[83],"As":[84],"application,":[86],"we":[87],"illustrate":[88],"this":[89],"approach":[90],"sample":[93],"positive":[95],"negative":[97],"Bitcoin":[101],"historical":[102],"price.":[103]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-12T12:28:57.059296","created_date":"2023-04-19T00:00:00"}
