{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4317795293","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2218663120","title":"Non-equilibrium early-warning signals for critical transitions in ecological systems","display_name":"Non-equilibrium early-warning signals for critical transitions in ecological systems","publication_year":2023,"publication_date":"2023-01-23","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4317795293","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2218663120","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36689655","pmcid":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/9945981"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1073/pnas.2218663120","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2218663120","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2218663120","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S125754415","display_name":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences","issn_l":"0027-8424","issn":["0027-8424","1091-6490"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-a","doyens","erih-plus","jufo-3","ki-jl-3","medline","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320052","host_organization_name":"National Academy of Sciences","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320052"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["National Academy of Sciences"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2218663120","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5100620430","display_name":"Li Xu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4714-1279","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4714-1279"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I19820366","display_name":"Chinese Academy of Sciences","ror":"https://ror.org/034t30j35","country_code":"CN","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I19820366"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210092888","display_name":"Changchun Institute of Applied Chemistry","ror":"https://ror.org/00h52n341","country_code":"CN","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I19820366","https://openalex.org/I4210092888"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4391768190","display_name":"State Key Laboratory of Electroanalytical Chemistry","ror":"https://ror.org/02jjdbb85","country_code":"CN","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I19820366","https://openalex.org/I4210092888","https://openalex.org/I4391768190"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Li Xu","raw_affiliation_strings":["State Key Laboratory of Electroanalytical Chemistry, Changchun Institute of Applied Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun, Jilin 130022, P.R. China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4714-1279","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"State Key Laboratory of Electroanalytical Chemistry, Changchun Institute of Applied Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun, Jilin 130022, P.R. China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I19820366","https://openalex.org/I4210092888","https://openalex.org/I4391768190"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5038523871","display_name":"Denis Patterson","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4509-7294","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4509-7294"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I20089843","display_name":"Princeton University","ror":"https://ror.org/00hx57361","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I20089843"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4405268937","display_name":"High Meadows Environmental Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/02hgay921","country_code":"US","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4405268937"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Denis Patterson","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544","High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4509-7294","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I20089843"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I20089843","https://openalex.org/I4405268937"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5077712228","display_name":"Simon A. Levin","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8216-5639","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8216-5639"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I20089843","display_name":"Princeton University","ror":"https://ror.org/00hx57361","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I20089843"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4405268937","display_name":"High Meadows Environmental Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/02hgay921","country_code":"US","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4405268937"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Simon Asher Levin","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544","High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8216-5639","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I20089843"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I20089843","https://openalex.org/I4405268937"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5100346147","display_name":"Jin Wang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2841-4913","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2841-4913"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I59553526","display_name":"Stony Brook University","ror":"https://ror.org/05qghxh33","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I59553526"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Jin Wang","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Chemistry, Physics and Applied Mathematics, State University of New York, Stony Brook, NY 11794-3400"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Chemistry, Physics and Applied Mathematics, State University of New York, Stony Brook, NY 11794-3400","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I59553526"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":6,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5077712228","https://openalex.org/A5100346147"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I20089843","https://openalex.org/I4405268937","https://openalex.org/I59553526"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":8.7826,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":85,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.98865454,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":99,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":"120","issue":"5","first_page":"e2218663120","last_page":"e2218663120"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13377","display_name":"Ecosystem dynamics and resilience","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13377","display_name":"Ecosystem dynamics and resilience","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11520","display_name":"Advanced Thermodynamics and Statistical Mechanics","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3109","display_name":"Statistical and Nonlinear Physics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12643","display_name":"Sustainability and Ecological Systems Analysis","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2305","display_name":"Environmental Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/early-warning-indicators","display_name":"early warning indicators","score":0.8859999775886536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/regime-shifts","display_name":"tipping points","score":0.9990000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ecological-resilience","display_name":"ecosystem resilience","score":0.6299999952316284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/nonequilibrium-statistical-mechanics","display_name":"nonequilibrium statistical mechanics","score":0.8790000081062317},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/entropy-generation-rate","display_name":"entropy production rate","score":0.8529999852180481},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/nonequilibrium-free-energy","display_name":"nonequilibrium free energy","score":0.9679999947547913},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-irreversibility","display_name":"time irreversibility","score":0.9929999709129333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ecosystem-stability","display_name":"ecosystem stability","score":0.41600000858306885}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C74859849","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2466686","display_name":"Non-equilibrium thermodynamics","level":2,"score":0.8633395433425903},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C207282930","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5380811","display_name":"Entropy production","level":2,"score":0.7723497748374939},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121864883","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q677916","display_name":"Statistical physics","level":1,"score":0.6891497373580933},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C29825287","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1427940","display_name":"Warning system","level":2,"score":0.6547876000404358},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780893879","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7308372","display_name":"Regime shift","level":3,"score":0.6118135452270508},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C106301342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4117933","display_name":"Entropy (arrow of time)","level":2,"score":0.503361165523529},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.43863749504089355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18903297","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7150","display_name":"Ecology","level":1,"score":0.2509952485561371},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.24883657693862915},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C97355855","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11473","display_name":"Thermodynamics","level":1,"score":0.15500465035438538},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76155785","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q418","display_name":"Telecommunications","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C110872660","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37813","display_name":"Ecosystem","level":2,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D010825","descriptor_name":"Physics","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D013816","descriptor_name":"Thermodynamics","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D017753","descriptor_name":"Ecosystem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D019277","descriptor_name":"Entropy","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false}],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1073/pnas.2218663120","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2218663120","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2218663120","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S125754415","display_name":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences","issn_l":"0027-8424","issn":["0027-8424","1091-6490"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-a","doyens","erih-plus","jufo-3","ki-jl-3","medline","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320052","host_organization_name":"National Academy of Sciences","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320052"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["National Academy of Sciences"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:9945981","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/9945981","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmid:36689655","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36689655","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America","raw_type":"Journal Article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/:2474798","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2218663120","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400188","display_name":"Durham Research Online (Durham University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I190082696","host_organization_name":"Durham University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I190082696"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Journal Article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1073/pnas.2218663120","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2218663120","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2218663120","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S125754415","display_name":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences","issn_l":"0027-8424","issn":["0027-8424","1091-6490"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-a","doyens","erih-plus","jufo-3","ki-jl-3","medline","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320052","host_organization_name":"National Academy of Sciences","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320052"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["National Academy of Sciences"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G3342962000","display_name":"Collaborative Research: Consequences of Environmental Stochasticity for the Spatial Dynamics of Savanna-Forest Transitions","funder_award_id":"1951358","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","funder_display_name":"National Science Foundation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4142568783","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"11305176","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","funder_display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8776291396","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"21721003","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","funder_display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","display_name":"National Science Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/021nxhr62"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","ror":"https://ror.org/01h0zpd94"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":46,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1518291454","https://openalex.org/W1535321247","https://openalex.org/W1923514381","https://openalex.org/W1966316263","https://openalex.org/W1970283086","https://openalex.org/W1970779075","https://openalex.org/W1975816373","https://openalex.org/W1976523099","https://openalex.org/W1978586665","https://openalex.org/W1986706413","https://openalex.org/W1993386125","https://openalex.org/W2009400068","https://openalex.org/W2011303397","https://openalex.org/W2043882198","https://openalex.org/W2049168941","https://openalex.org/W2051313501","https://openalex.org/W2063854986","https://openalex.org/W2070159194","https://openalex.org/W2073560602","https://openalex.org/W2093456062","https://openalex.org/W2102787760","https://openalex.org/W2103948957","https://openalex.org/W2116199452","https://openalex.org/W2120386558","https://openalex.org/W2125789924","https://openalex.org/W2134761831","https://openalex.org/W2137088684","https://openalex.org/W2138540872","https://openalex.org/W2153268540","https://openalex.org/W2155418451","https://openalex.org/W2157658472","https://openalex.org/W2274815048","https://openalex.org/W2411171543","https://openalex.org/W2605503817","https://openalex.org/W2793370606","https://openalex.org/W2793970547","https://openalex.org/W2892348326","https://openalex.org/W2921112232","https://openalex.org/W2962938149","https://openalex.org/W3010588610","https://openalex.org/W3112214979","https://openalex.org/W3168787606","https://openalex.org/W3172623273","https://openalex.org/W3201535265","https://openalex.org/W4244139169","https://openalex.org/W4299870202"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2287843295","https://openalex.org/W7163322636","https://openalex.org/W1966512215","https://openalex.org/W2120386558","https://openalex.org/W2951485895","https://openalex.org/W7096607231","https://openalex.org/W2116199452","https://openalex.org/W4392131967","https://openalex.org/W2136498527","https://openalex.org/W7065506396"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Complex":[0],"systems":[1,62],"can":[2,35,127,163,182],"exhibit":[3],"sudden":[4],"transitions":[5,135,186],"or":[6],"regime":[7,41],"shifts":[8],"from":[9,47],"one":[10],"stable":[11],"state":[12],"to":[13,17,26,38,55,167,196],"another,":[14],"typically":[15],"referred":[16],"as":[18,51,75,93,129,149],"critical":[19,68,134,185],"transitions.":[20,69],"It":[21],"becomes":[22],"a":[23,28,40,52,144],"great":[24],"challenge":[25],"identify":[27],"robust":[29],"warning":[30,65,131,155,178],"sufficiently":[31,194],"early":[32,130,154,177,195],"that":[33],"action":[34],"be":[36,164],"taken":[37],"avert":[39,197],"shift.":[42],"We":[43,70,142],"employ":[44],"landscape-flux":[45],"theory":[46],"nonequilibrium":[48,77,86,95,103,109],"statistical":[49],"mechanics":[50],"general":[53,161],"framework":[54],"quantify":[56,71],"the":[57,72,76,81,85,89,94,102,117,169],"global":[58],"stability":[59],"of":[60,84,101,171],"ecological":[61,174],"and":[63,80,98,112,123,162,191],"provide":[64],"signals":[66,132,179],"for":[67,133,152],"average":[73],"flux":[74],"driving":[78],"force":[79],"dynamical":[82],"origin":[83,100],"transition":[87],"while":[88],"entropy":[90,107],"production":[91],"rate":[92],"thermodynamic":[96,99],"cost":[97],"transition.":[104],"Average":[105],"flux,":[106],"production,":[108],"free":[110],"energy,":[111],"time":[113,126],"irreversibility":[114],"quantified":[115],"by":[116],"difference":[118],"in":[119,125],"cross-correlation":[120],"functions":[121],"forward":[122],"backward":[124],"serve":[128],"much":[136],"earlier":[137,187],"than":[138,188],"other":[139,173],"conventional":[140],"predictors.":[141],"utilize":[143],"classical":[145],"shallow":[146],"lake":[147],"model":[148],"an":[150],"exemplar":[151],"our":[153],"prediction.":[156],"Our":[157],"proposed":[158,180],"method":[159],"is":[160],"readily":[165],"applied":[166],"assess":[168],"resilience":[170],"many":[172],"systems.":[175],"The":[176],"here":[181],"potentially":[183],"predict":[184],"established":[189],"methods":[190],"perhaps":[192],"even":[193],"catastrophic":[198],"shifts.":[199]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":28},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":28},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":19},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":10}],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2023-01-24T00:00:00"}