{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4315750331","doi":"https://doi.org/10.6018/eglobal.521971","title":"El modelo Kermack-McKendrick en la propagaci\u00f3n de cepas COVID-19: Per\u00fa 2020-2021","display_name":"El modelo Kermack-McKendrick en la propagaci\u00f3n de cepas COVID-19: Per\u00fa 2020-2021","publication_year":2023,"publication_date":"2023-01-03","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4315750331","doi":"https://doi.org/10.6018/eglobal.521971"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.6018/eglobal.521971","doi":"https://doi.org/10.6018/eglobal.521971","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.6018/eglobal.521971","pdf_url":"https://revistas.um.es/eglobal/article/download/521971/332911","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210175345","display_name":"Enfermer\u00eda Global","issn_l":"1695-6141","issn":["1695-6141"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["doaj","fecyt-seal","norway-1","poland-20","russia-white-list-3","scielo"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310321098","host_organization_name":"University of Murcia","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310321098"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["University of Murcia"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Enfermer\u00eda Global","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"diamond","oa_url":"https://revistas.um.es/eglobal/article/download/521971/332911","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5063645421","display_name":"Josefrank Pernalete Lugo","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6625-1334","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6625-1334"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Josefrank Pernalete Lugo","raw_affiliation_strings":["Mount Scopus Journal"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6625-1334","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Mount Scopus Journal","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5012185204","display_name":"Ysaelen Odor Rossel","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3160-3106","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3160-3106"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210131015","display_name":"Universidad Nacional Experimental Francisco de Miranda","ror":"https://ror.org/02ybb5327","country_code":"VE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210131015"]}],"countries":["VE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ysaelen Odor Rossel","raw_affiliation_strings":["Universidad Nacional Experimental Francisco de Miranda, Punto Fijo, Venezuela"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3160-3106","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Universidad Nacional Experimental Francisco de Miranda, Punto Fijo, Venezuela","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210131015"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.3529,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":2,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.47852638,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":93},"biblio":{"volume":"22","issue":"1","first_page":"309","last_page":"336"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9940999746322632,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9940999746322632,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10482","display_name":"Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models","score":0.00559999980032444,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2604","display_name":"Applied Mathematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10118","display_name":"SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2725","display_name":"Infectious Diseases"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/covid-19","display_name":"COVID-19 pandemic","score":0.8709999918937683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sir-model","display_name":"SIR model","score":0.9490000009536743},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/kermack-mckendrick-model","display_name":"Kermack-McKendrick model","score":0.9100000262260437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/basic-reproduction-number","display_name":"basic reproduction number","score":0.8379999995231628},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/delta-variant","display_name":"Delta variant","score":0.9200000166893005},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/p-1-lineage","display_name":"P.1 lineage","score":0.7770000100135803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/epidemic-forecasting","display_name":"epidemic forecasting","score":0.5479999780654907},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/peru","display_name":"Peru","score":0.628000020980835},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/differential-equations","display_name":"differential equations","score":0.49399998784065247},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mitigation-measures","display_name":"mitigation measures","score":0.5759999752044678},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/vaccination","display_name":"vaccination","score":0.7409999966621399},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/epidemic-threshold","display_name":"epidemic threshold","score":0.32199999690055847}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C1627819","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2572354","display_name":"Epidemic model","level":3,"score":0.7881619930267334},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.721606433391571},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116675565","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3241045","display_name":"Outbreak","level":2,"score":0.6694561839103699},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C16683452","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7834601","display_name":"Transmissibility (structural dynamics)","level":4,"score":0.6113166809082031},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781254715","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q28454687","display_name":"Infection rate","level":2,"score":0.5895015001296997},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89623803","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12184","display_name":"Pandemic","level":5,"score":0.5762767791748047},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C761482","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q118093","display_name":"Transmission (telecommunications)","level":2,"score":0.5347790718078613},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3007834351","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q82069695","display_name":"Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)","level":5,"score":0.4879431128501892},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.44303369522094727},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3006700255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q81068910","display_name":"2019-20 coronavirus outbreak","level":3,"score":0.4417635500431061},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2989335485","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17130189","display_name":"Transmission rate","level":3,"score":0.4312765598297119},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2987315675","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1773974","display_name":"Disease control","level":2,"score":0.41378504037857056},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.36609694361686707},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.32985830307006836},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159047783","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7215","display_name":"Virology","level":1,"score":0.3282284736633301},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.3257138729095459},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.26714858412742615},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.2580186128616333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.15795555710792542},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.13554608821868896},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76155785","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q418","display_name":"Telecommunications","level":1,"score":0.11214885115623474},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.09972941875457764},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.0917707085609436},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.07552838325500488},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126322002","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11180","display_name":"Internal medicine","level":1,"score":0.0697660744190216},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C45799244","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q109968206","display_name":"Vibration isolation","level":3,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C198394728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3695508","display_name":"Vibration","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C141071460","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q40821","display_name":"Surgery","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.6018/eglobal.521971","doi":"https://doi.org/10.6018/eglobal.521971","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.6018/eglobal.521971","pdf_url":"https://revistas.um.es/eglobal/article/download/521971/332911","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210175345","display_name":"Enfermer\u00eda Global","issn_l":"1695-6141","issn":["1695-6141"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["doaj","fecyt-seal","norway-1","poland-20","russia-white-list-3","scielo"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310321098","host_organization_name":"University of Murcia","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310321098"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["University of Murcia"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Enfermer\u00eda Global","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:a234be9297734d339a037ba615186cba","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/a234be9297734d339a037ba615186cba","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Enfermer\u00eda Global, Vol 22, Iss 1 (2023)","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:hispana.mcu.es:61673512","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10201/129171","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196108","display_name":"Hispana","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.6018/eglobal.521971","doi":"https://doi.org/10.6018/eglobal.521971","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.6018/eglobal.521971","pdf_url":"https://revistas.um.es/eglobal/article/download/521971/332911","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210175345","display_name":"Enfermer\u00eda Global","issn_l":"1695-6141","issn":["1695-6141"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["doaj","fecyt-seal","norway-1","poland-20","russia-white-list-3","scielo"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310321098","host_organization_name":"University of Murcia","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310321098"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["University of Murcia"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Enfermer\u00eda Global","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.8560000061988831,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","display_name":"Good health and well-being"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4315750331.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4315750331.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":20,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2904067674","https://openalex.org/W3006320625","https://openalex.org/W3008294222","https://openalex.org/W3009468976","https://openalex.org/W3011660668","https://openalex.org/W3015648470","https://openalex.org/W3015935123","https://openalex.org/W3018858544","https://openalex.org/W3021905888","https://openalex.org/W3022002504","https://openalex.org/W3032098703","https://openalex.org/W3034509940","https://openalex.org/W3037867503","https://openalex.org/W3046253915","https://openalex.org/W3048670742","https://openalex.org/W3083353481","https://openalex.org/W3113074641","https://openalex.org/W3129485466","https://openalex.org/W4205643746","https://openalex.org/W4231014932"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4296510844","https://openalex.org/W3201010139","https://openalex.org/W3050563811","https://openalex.org/W4399465840","https://openalex.org/W3049085209","https://openalex.org/W7039567932","https://openalex.org/W3177468275","https://openalex.org/W7043851862","https://openalex.org/W3050933997","https://openalex.org/W4292054933"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Introduction:":[0],"The":[1,69,113,189],"SIR":[2,229,490],"epidemic":[3],"model":[4,29,46,146],"is":[5],"useful":[6],"for":[7,39,55,105,130],"measuring":[8],"the":[9,35,40,48,51,56,61,64,88,94,142,145,159,171,184,203,218],"rate":[10,115,137],"of":[11,13,19,30,34,37,47,50,66,71,116,127,144,154,191,205,220,222],"spread":[12,204],"COVID-19":[14,38,241,265,501],"strains":[15],"(B.1.617.2/P.1/C.37/B.1.621),":[16,242,502],"in":[17,63,193],"terms":[18],"epidemiological":[20],"threshold":[21,140],"R0":[22,164,248,412,508,646],"over":[23],"time.Objective:":[24],"To":[25],"evaluate":[26],"a":[27,125,249,360,423,466,495,523,543,587,594,625,654],"mathematical":[28,45],"differential":[31,44],"type,":[32],"typical":[33],"behavior":[36,49],"Peruvian":[41,57],"collective.Methods:":[42],"A":[43],"pandemic":[52],"was":[53,82,147],"developed":[54],"collective,":[58],"based":[59,92],"on":[60,93,198],"experience":[62],"control":[65,291],"Kermack\u2013McKendrick":[67],"infections.":[68],"number":[70],"susceptible":[72],"S,":[73,301],"infected":[74,136],"and":[75,79,99,139,207],"spreading":[76],"infection":[77,206],"I":[78,307,545],"recovered":[80],"R":[81,547],"estimated,":[83],"using":[84],"official":[85],"datasets":[86],"from":[87,120],"World":[89],"Health":[90],"Organization,":[91],"history":[95],"between":[96],"March":[97],"7":[98,565],"September":[100,109],"12,":[101],"2020":[102,340,573],"and;":[103],"projected":[104],"52":[106,344,577],"weeks":[107],"until":[108],"11,":[110],"2021.":[111,123,352,367,584,601],"Results:":[112],"lowest":[114],"infections":[117,192],"will":[118,173,186,195],"occur":[119],"April":[121],"3,":[122],"Evidencing":[124],"prognosis":[126],"lower":[128],"transmissibility":[129],"May":[131],"29,":[132],"2021":[133,380,613],"with":[134,152,158,217],"an":[135],"(\u03b2=0.08)":[138,386],"(R0=0.000),":[141],"accuracy":[143],"also":[148],"quantified":[149],"at":[150],"97.795%,":[151],"2.205%":[153],"average":[155,161],"percentage":[156],"error,":[157],"temporary":[160],"value":[162],"being":[163],"<1,":[165,413,647],"so":[166,183],"each":[167],"person":[168,178],"who":[169],"contracts":[170],"disease":[172],"infect":[174],"less":[175],"than":[176],"one":[177],"before":[179],"dying":[180],"or":[181],"recovering,":[182],"outbreak":[185],"disappear.":[187],"Conclusion:":[188],"curve":[190],"Peru":[194],"depend":[196],"directly":[197],"mitigation":[199],"measures":[200],"to":[201],"curb":[202],"predict":[208],"sustained":[209],"transmission":[210],"through":[211],"vaccination":[212],"against":[213],"covid-19":[214],"type":[215],"strains;":[216],"observance":[219],"people":[221],"preventive":[223],"measures.":[224],"Introducci\u00f3n:":[225],"El":[226],"modelo":[227,256,273,396,488,516,628],"epid\u00e9mico":[228,489],"es":[230],"\u00fatil":[231,492],"para":[232,266,281,374,454,493,522,576,608],"medir":[233,494],"la":[234,279,287,305,320,324,393,420,456,459,469,478],"velocidad":[235],"de":[236,238,245,258,278,286,292,299,314,316,319,323,332,337,339,349,351,357,364,366,371,377,379,384,403,425,429,442,449,452,458,468,480,483,497,505,519,529,533,537,553,559,566,570,572,581,583,589,596,598,600,605,610,612,617,637,658,662,681],"propagaci\u00f3n":[237,457],"las":[239,450,472,481,484],"cepas":[240,473],"en":[243,289,397,444],"t\u00e9rminos":[244],"umbral":[246,388],"epidemiol\u00f3gico":[247,507],"lo":[250,434],"largo":[251],"del":[252,262,264,276,327,362,395,475],"tiempo.Objetivo:":[253],"Evaluar":[254],"un":[255,272,369],"matem\u00e1tico":[257,274,517],"tipo":[259,474],"diferencial,":[260],"propio":[261],"comportamiento":[263,277],"el":[267,282,290,297,312,330,335,347,375,408,436,445],"colectivo":[268,283],"peruano.M\u00e9todos:":[269],"Se":[270,295],"desarroll\u00f3":[271],"diferencial":[275,518],"pandemia":[280],"peruano,":[284],"partiendo":[285,326],"experiencia":[288],"infecciones":[293],"Kermack\u2013McKendrick.":[294],"estim\u00f3":[296],"n\u00famero":[298,536],"susceptibles":[300],"infectados":[302,358,385,540],"y":[303,308,334,387,461],"diseminando":[304],"infecci\u00f3n":[306,460],"recuperados":[309,548],"R,":[310],"con":[311,381,400,477],"uso":[313],"conjuntos":[315,552],"datos":[317],"oficiales":[318],"Organizaci\u00f3n":[321],"Mundial":[322,558],"Salud,":[325],"hist\u00f3rico":[328,563],"entre":[329,564],"07":[331],"marzo":[333],"12":[336,569],"septiembre":[338,350],"y;":[341],"proyectado":[342],"durante":[343],"semanas":[345,578],"hasta":[346],"11":[348,580],"Resultados:":[353],"La":[354,440],"menor":[355,372,606],"tasa":[356,383],"ocurrir\u00e1":[359],"partir":[361,595],"3":[363,597],"abril":[365],"Evidenciando":[368,602],"pron\u00f3stico":[370],"transmisibilidad":[373],"29":[376,609],"mayo":[378],"una":[382,426,463],"(R0=0,000),":[389,622],"adem\u00e1s":[390],"se":[391],"cuantific\u00f3":[392],"exactitud":[394],"97,795":[398,632],"%,":[399,633],"2,205":[401,635],"%":[402,636],"error":[404],"porcentual":[405],"medio,":[406],"siendo":[407],"valor":[409,643],"promedio":[410],"temporal":[411,645],"as\u00ed":[414],"que":[415,418,435,586,649,652,667],"cada":[416,650],"persona":[417,427],"contrae":[419],"enfermedad":[421],"infectar\u00e1":[422,656],"menos":[424,657],"antes":[428,661,683],"morir":[430],"o":[431,642,668,674],"recuperarse,":[432],"por":[433],"brote":[437],"desaparecer\u00e1.":[438,670],"Conclusi\u00f3n:":[439],"curva":[441],"contagios":[443],"Per\u00fa":[446],"depender\u00e1":[447],"directamente":[448],"medidas":[451,485],"mitigaci\u00f3n":[453],"frenar":[455],"predecir":[462],"transmisi\u00f3n":[464],"sostenida":[465],"trav\u00e9s":[467],"vacunaci\u00f3n":[470],"contra":[471],"COVID-19;":[476],"observancia":[479],"personas":[482],"preventivas.":[486],"O":[487,535],"\u00e9":[491],"velocidade":[496],"propaga\u00e7\u00e3o":[498],"das":[499,677],"estirpes":[500,678],"em":[503,631],"termos":[504],"limiar":[506,621],"ao":[509],"longo":[510],"do":[511,627,686],"tempo.":[512],"Foi":[513],"desenvolvido":[514],"um":[515],"comportamento":[520,675],"pand\u00e9mico":[521],"popula\u00e7\u00e3o":[524],"peruana,":[525],"baseado":[526],"na":[527],"experi\u00eancia":[528],"controlo":[530],"da":[531,556,684],"infec\u00e7\u00e3o":[532,544,590,618],"Kermack-McKendrick.":[534],"S":[538],"suscept\u00edveis,":[539],"e":[541,546,568,574,620],"disseminando":[542],"foi":[549,629],"estimado":[550],"utilizando":[551],"dados":[554],"oficiais":[555],"Organiza\u00e7\u00e3o":[557],"Sa\u00fade,":[560],"come\u00e7ando":[561],"no":[562],"Mar\u00e7o":[567],"Setembro":[571,582],"projectado":[575],"at\u00e9":[579,679],"Explicando":[585],"taxa":[588,616],"mais":[591],"baixa":[592],"ocorrer\u00e1":[593],"Abril":[599],"uma":[603,615,659],"previs\u00e3o":[604],"transmissibilidade":[607],"Maio":[611],"com":[614,634],"(\u03b2=0,08)":[619],"al\u00e9m":[623],"disso":[624],"precis\u00e3o":[626],"quantificada":[630],"erro":[638],"percentual":[639],"m\u00e9dio,":[640],"sendo":[641],"m\u00e9dio":[644],"pelo":[648,666],"pessoa":[651,660],"contraia":[653],"doen\u00e7a":[655],"morrer":[663],"ou":[664],"recuperar,":[665],"surto":[669],"Os":[671],"resultados":[672],"contemplaram":[673],"din\u00e2mico":[676],"Novembro":[680],"2021,":[682],"chegada":[685],"omicron":[687],"(B.1.1.529).":[688]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-10T11:39:43.021295","created_date":"2023-01-13T00:00:00"}