{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4295028396","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.09.05.22279174","title":"The National COVID-19 Epi Model (NCEM): Estimating cases, admissions and deaths in South Africa","display_name":"The National COVID-19 Epi Model (NCEM): Estimating cases, admissions and deaths in South Africa","publication_year":2022,"publication_date":"2022-09-09","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4295028396","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.09.05.22279174"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1101/2022.09.05.22279174","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.09.05.22279174","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.09.05.22279174","pdf_url":"https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2022/09/09/2022.09.05.22279174.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S3005729997","display_name":"medRxiv","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315909"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press"],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"medRxiv","raw_type":"posted-content"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2022/09/09/2022.09.05.22279174.full.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5031015772","display_name":"Sheetal Prakash Silal","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3007-5383","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3007-5383"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I157614274","display_name":"University of Cape Town","ror":"https://ror.org/03p74gp79","country_code":"ZA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I157614274"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I40120149","display_name":"University of Oxford","ror":"https://ror.org/052gg0110","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]}],"countries":["GB","ZA"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Sheetal Prakash Silal","raw_affiliation_strings":["Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK","Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (MASHA), Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3007-5383","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (MASHA), Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I157614274"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5046535690","display_name":"Juliet R.C. Pulliam","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3314-8223","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3314-8223"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I26092322","display_name":"Stellenbosch University","ror":"https://ror.org/05bk57929","country_code":"ZA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I26092322"]}],"countries":["ZA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Juliet R.C. Pulliam","raw_affiliation_strings":["South African DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3314-8223","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"South African DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I26092322"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5031952967","display_name":"Gesine Meyer\u2010Rath","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0439-381X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0439-381X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I111088046","display_name":"Boston University","ror":"https://ror.org/05qwgg493","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I111088046"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I192619145","display_name":"University of the Witwatersrand","ror":"https://ror.org/03rp50x72","country_code":"ZA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I192619145"]}],"countries":["US","ZA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Gesine Meyer-Rath","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA","Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office, Department of Internal Medicine, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0439-381X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I111088046"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office, Department of Internal Medicine, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I192619145"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5040982145","display_name":"Lise Jamieson","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2354-4580","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2354-4580"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I192619145","display_name":"University of the Witwatersrand","ror":"https://ror.org/03rp50x72","country_code":"ZA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I192619145"]}],"countries":["ZA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Lise Jamieson","raw_affiliation_strings":["Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office, Department of Internal Medicine, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office, Department of Internal Medicine, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I192619145"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5091815735","display_name":"Brooke E Nichols","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4682-4999","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4682-4999"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I111088046","display_name":"Boston University","ror":"https://ror.org/05qwgg493","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I111088046"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1281389954","display_name":"FIND","ror":"https://ror.org/05tcsqz68","country_code":"CH","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1281389954"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I192619145","display_name":"University of the Witwatersrand","ror":"https://ror.org/03rp50x72","country_code":"ZA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I192619145"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2802928900","display_name":"Amsterdam UMC Location University of Amsterdam","ror":"https://ror.org/03t4gr691","country_code":"NL","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2802928900","https://openalex.org/I4210151833"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210151833","display_name":"Amsterdam University Medical Centers","ror":"https://ror.org/05grdyy37","country_code":"NL","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210151833"]}],"countries":["CH","NL","US","ZA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Brooke E Nichols","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA","Department of Medical Microbiology, Amsterdam University Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands","Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics, Geneva, Switzerland","Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office, Department of Internal Medicine, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4682-4999","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I111088046"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Medical Microbiology, Amsterdam University Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2802928900","https://openalex.org/I4210151833"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics, Geneva, Switzerland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1281389954"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office, Department of Internal Medicine, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I192619145"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5021877512","display_name":"Jared Norman","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5692-999X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5692-999X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I157614274","display_name":"University of Cape Town","ror":"https://ror.org/03p74gp79","country_code":"ZA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I157614274"]}],"countries":["ZA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jared Norman","raw_affiliation_strings":["Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (MASHA), Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5692-999X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (MASHA), Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I157614274"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5068274886","display_name":"Rachel Hounsell","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1393-4294","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1393-4294"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I157614274","display_name":"University of Cape Town","ror":"https://ror.org/03p74gp79","country_code":"ZA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I157614274"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I40120149","display_name":"University of Oxford","ror":"https://ror.org/052gg0110","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]}],"countries":["GB","ZA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Rachel Hounsell","raw_affiliation_strings":["Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK","Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (MASHA), Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (MASHA), Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I157614274"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5001256289","display_name":"Saadiyah Mayet","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8408-1394","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8408-1394"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I157614274","display_name":"University of Cape Town","ror":"https://ror.org/03p74gp79","country_code":"ZA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I157614274"]}],"countries":["ZA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Saadiyah Mayet","raw_affiliation_strings":["Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (MASHA), Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (MASHA), Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I157614274"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5064563319","display_name":"Frank Kagoro","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4608-7167","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4608-7167"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I157614274","display_name":"University of Cape Town","ror":"https://ror.org/03p74gp79","country_code":"ZA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I157614274"]}],"countries":["ZA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Frank Kagoro","raw_affiliation_strings":["Collaborating Centre for Optimising Antimalarial Therapy, Division of Clinical Pharmacology, Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4608-7167","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Collaborating Centre for Optimising Antimalarial Therapy, Division of Clinical Pharmacology, Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I157614274"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5014104423","display_name":"Harry Moultrie","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9722-0699","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9722-0699"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I107920810","display_name":"National Health Laboratory Service","ror":"https://ror.org/00znvbk37","country_code":"ZA","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I107920810"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4387155312","display_name":"National Institute for Communicable Diseases","ror":"https://ror.org/007wwmx82","country_code":"ZA","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4387155312"]}],"countries":["ZA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Harry Moultrie","raw_affiliation_strings":["National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), a division of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9722-0699","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), a division of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I107920810","https://openalex.org/I4387155312"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":5,"institutions_distinct_count":10,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5031015772"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I157614274","https://openalex.org/I40120149"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10482","display_name":"Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2739","display_name":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13032","display_name":"COVID-19 Prevention and Impact","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/covid-19","display_name":"COVID-19 pandemic","score":0.9430000185966492},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/compartmental-epidemic-model","display_name":"compartmental epidemic model","score":0.7599999904632568},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/spatially-explicit-model","display_name":"spatially explicit model","score":0.6539999842643738},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/seir-model","display_name":"SEIR model","score":0.699999988079071},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/hospitalization","display_name":"hospitalization","score":0.8240000009536743},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/covid-19-mortality","display_name":"COVID-19 mortality","score":0.8889999985694885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/healthcare-resource-planning","display_name":"healthcare resource planning","score":0.7250000238418579},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/public-health-and-social-measures","display_name":"public health and social measures","score":0.8040000200271606},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/behavioral-heterogeneity","display_name":"behavioral heterogeneity","score":0.8450000286102295},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/model-updating","display_name":"model updating","score":0.5130000114440918},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/south-africa","display_name":"South Africa","score":0.6589999794960022}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.5372040271759033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780889827","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10756188","display_name":"Treasury","level":2,"score":0.5303343534469604},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.5272813439369202},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778137410","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2732820","display_name":"Government (linguistics)","level":2,"score":0.5246265530586243},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138816342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q189603","display_name":"Public health","level":2,"score":0.44133296608924866},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C761482","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q118093","display_name":"Transmission (telecommunications)","level":2,"score":0.4322890043258667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.4066666066646576},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.3870914876461029},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.2607722282409668},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.1518513262271881},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.1477043330669403},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76155785","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q418","display_name":"Telecommunications","level":1,"score":0.1062641441822052},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159110408","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q121176","display_name":"Nursing","level":1,"score":0.09761399030685425},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41895202","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8162","display_name":"Linguistics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142724271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7208","display_name":"Pathology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1101/2022.09.05.22279174","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.09.05.22279174","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.09.05.22279174","pdf_url":"https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2022/09/09/2022.09.05.22279174.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S3005729997","display_name":"medRxiv","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315909"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press"],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"medRxiv","raw_type":"posted-content"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1101/2022.09.05.22279174","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.09.05.22279174","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.09.05.22279174","pdf_url":"https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2022/09/09/2022.09.05.22279174.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S3005729997","display_name":"medRxiv","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315909"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press"],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"medRxiv","raw_type":"posted-content"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.9391000270843506,"display_name":"Good health and well-being","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3"}],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"score":0.75,"display_name":"Reduced inequalities","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/10"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G3820903925","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"72067419CA00004","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320310979","funder_display_name":"U.S. President\u2019s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4329070378","display_name":"EVIDENCE IS A PROGRAM OF APPLIED RESEARCH AND EVALUATION, INCLUDING COST AND COST EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS, COST MODELING, AND EPIDEMIOLOGICAL ANALYSIS, AIMED AT ASSISTING THE GOVERNMENT OF SOUTH AFRICA TO ACHIEVE THE GOALS OF ITS NATIONAL STRATEGIC PLAN ON HIV, TB AND STIS 2017-2022, NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL 90-90-90 TARGETS, AND PEPFAR OBJECTIVES.","funder_award_id":"72067419CA00004","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306115","funder_display_name":"United States Agency for International Development"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4448095186","display_name":"Wits Health Consortium (Pty) Ltd - to conduct costing and modeling activities for supporting crucial decisions in South Africa and elsewhere on the prioritized targeting of COVID-19 ...","funder_award_id":"INV-035464","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306137","funder_display_name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8607076755","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"GN: 2114236/Z/18Z","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320311904","funder_display_name":"Wellcome Trust"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306115","display_name":"United States Agency for International Development","ror":"https://ror.org/01n6e6j62"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306137","display_name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/0456r8d26"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320310979","display_name":"U.S. President\u2019s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief","ror":"https://ror.org/025g6sc95"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320311904","display_name":"Wellcome Trust","ror":"https://ror.org/029chgv08"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320671","display_name":"National Research Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/05s0g1g46"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4295028396.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4295028396.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":11,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2619381903","https://openalex.org/W2790333118","https://openalex.org/W2828070783","https://openalex.org/W2902439619","https://openalex.org/W2914753720","https://openalex.org/W3038826393","https://openalex.org/W3109596041","https://openalex.org/W3128171059","https://openalex.org/W4294541781","https://openalex.org/W4376959028","https://openalex.org/W4382932357"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4366819626","https://openalex.org/W4387013993","https://openalex.org/W4382932357","https://openalex.org/W3026473869","https://openalex.org/W3027693882","https://openalex.org/W3111979986","https://openalex.org/W6903879953","https://openalex.org/W7130844470","https://openalex.org/W7162082326","https://openalex.org/W7111143837"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"Background":[1],"In":[2],"March":[3],"2020":[4],"the":[5,61,72,75,92,95,98,111,119,135,166,187,194,224,232,252,256,272,292,296,312],"South":[6,65,123,277],"African":[7],"COVID-19":[8,18,45,117],"Modelling":[9],"Consortium":[10],"was":[11,67,168],"formed":[12],"to":[13,32,40,82,109,172,181,212,221,231,246,262,270,275],"support":[14],"government":[15],"planning":[16],"for":[17,134],"cases":[19],"and":[20,37,86,113,143,146,152,156,162,178,189,197,209,223,237,249,251,280,285,289,305,316],"related":[21],"healthcare.":[22],"Models":[23],"were":[24,242],"developed":[25,51,101],"jointly":[26],"by":[27],"local":[28,84,247,268,318],"disease":[29],"modelling":[30,319],"groups":[31],"estimate":[33,110],"cases,":[34],"resource":[35,309],"needs":[36,88,254],"deaths":[38],"due":[39],"COVID-19.":[41],"Methods":[42],"The":[43,125,259],"National":[44,195],"Epi":[46],"Model":[47],"(NCEM)":[48],"while":[49],"initially":[50],"as":[52,206],"a":[53,103,128,201,264,300],"deterministic":[54],"compartmental":[55,106],"model":[56,108,126,167,213,273],"of":[57,64,74,78,89,94,116,122,138,148,176,192,203,226,234,255,267,287,291,308,314],"SARS-Cov-2":[58],"transmission":[59,107],"in":[60,80,154,186,200,229,244,303],"nine":[62],"provinces":[63],"Africa,":[66],"adapted":[68],"several":[69,170],"times":[70,171],"over":[71],"course":[73],"first":[76,96],"wave":[77],"infection":[79],"response":[81,245],"emerging":[83],"data":[85,248,269,288],"changing":[87,253],"government.":[90],"By":[91],"end":[93],"wave,":[97],"NCEM":[99,260],"had":[100],"into":[102],"stochastic,":[104],"spatially-explicit":[105],"total":[112],"reported":[114],"incidence":[115],"across":[118],"52":[120],"districts":[121],"Africa.":[124],"adopted":[127],"generalised":[129],"Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed":[130],"structure":[131,214],"that":[132],"accounted":[133],"clinical":[136],"profile":[137],"SARS-COV-2":[139],"(asymptomatic,":[140],"mild,":[141],"severe":[142],"critical":[144],"cases)":[145],"avenues":[147],"treatment":[149],"access":[150,220],"(outpatient,":[151],"hospitalisation":[153],"non-ICU":[155],"ICU":[157],"wards).":[158],"Results":[159],"Between":[160],"end-March":[161],"early":[163],"September":[164],"2020,":[165],"updated":[169],"generate":[173],"new":[174],"sets":[175],"projections":[177],"scenario":[179],"analyses":[180],"be":[182],"shared":[183],"with":[184,295],"planners":[185],"national":[188],"provincial":[190],"Departments":[191],"Health,":[193],"Treasury":[196],"other":[198],"partners":[199],"variety":[202],"formats":[204],"such":[205],"presentations,":[207],"reports":[208],"dashboards.":[210],"Updates":[211],"included":[215],"finer":[216],"spatial":[217],"granularity,":[218],"limited":[219],"treatment,":[222],"inclusion":[225],"behavioural":[227],"heterogeneity":[228],"relation":[230],"adoption":[233],"Public":[235],"Health":[236],"Social":[238],"Measures.":[239],"These":[240],"updates":[241],"made":[243],"knowledge":[250],"planners.":[257],"Conclusions":[258],"attempted":[261],"incorporate":[263],"high":[265],"level":[266],"contextualise":[271],"appropriately":[274],"address":[276],"Africa\u2019s":[278],"population":[279],"health":[281,297],"system":[282,298],"characteristics.":[283],"Origin":[284],"contextualisation":[286],"understanding":[290],"population\u2019s":[293],"interaction":[294],"played":[299],"vital":[301],"role":[302],"producing":[304],"updating":[306],"estimates":[307],"needs,":[310],"demonstrating":[311],"importance":[313],"harnessing":[315],"developing":[317],"capacity.":[320]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-10-27T15:51:10.671819","created_date":"2022-09-09T00:00:00"}
