{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4294368287","doi":"https://doi.org/10.17615/g1xd-0k64","title":"Could widespread use of antiviral treatment curb the COVID-19 pandemic? A modeling study","display_name":"Could widespread use of antiviral treatment curb the COVID-19 pandemic? A modeling study","publication_year":2022,"publication_date":"2022-09-03","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4294368287","doi":"https://doi.org/10.17615/g1xd-0k64"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:cdr.lib.unc.edu:h989rc85k","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.17615/g1xd-0k64","pdf_url":"https://doi.org/10.17615/g1xd-0k64","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401075","display_name":"Carolina Digital Repository (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I114027177","host_organization_name":"University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I114027177"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"BMC Infectious Diseases, 22(1)","raw_type":"Article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.17615/g1xd-0k64","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5091507463","display_name":"Elizabeth R. Brown","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4286-2111","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4286-2111"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I114027177","display_name":"University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill","ror":"https://ror.org/0130frc33","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I114027177"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Brown, E.R.","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill","School of Medicine, Institute for Global Health and Infectious Disease"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I114027177"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Medicine, Institute for Global Health and Infectious Disease","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5045849416","display_name":"Laura Matrajt","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4495-7245","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4495-7245"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I114027177","display_name":"University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill","ror":"https://ror.org/0130frc33","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I114027177"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Matrajt, L.","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill","School of Medicine, Institute for Global Health and Infectious Disease"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I114027177"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Medicine, Institute for Global Health and Infectious Disease","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5058788810","display_name":"Dobromir Dimitrov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2842-5436","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2842-5436"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I114027177","display_name":"University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill","ror":"https://ror.org/0130frc33","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I114027177"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Dimitrov, D.","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill","School of Medicine, Institute for Global Health and Infectious Disease"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I114027177"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Medicine, Institute for Global Health and Infectious Disease","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5050864343","display_name":"Holly Janes","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3237-984X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3237-984X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I114027177","display_name":"University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill","ror":"https://ror.org/0130frc33","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I114027177"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Janes, H.","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill","School of Medicine, Institute for Global Health and Infectious Disease"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I114027177"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Medicine, Institute for Global Health and Infectious Disease","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5024262342","display_name":"Myron S. Cohen","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5917-9664","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5917-9664"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I114027177","display_name":"University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill","ror":"https://ror.org/0130frc33","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I114027177"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Cohen, M.S.","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill","School of Medicine, Institute for Global Health and Infectious Disease"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I114027177"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Medicine, Institute for Global Health and Infectious Disease","institution_ids":[]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I114027177"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.09500863,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9911999702453613,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9911999702453613,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10482","display_name":"Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models","score":0.005499999970197678,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2739","display_name":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10118","display_name":"SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research","score":0.0015999999595806003,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2725","display_name":"Infectious Diseases"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/covid-19","display_name":"COVID-19 pandemic","score":0.9959999918937683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sars-cov-2","display_name":"SARS-CoV-2","score":0.9359999895095825},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/antiviral-therapy","display_name":"antiviral therapy","score":0.9860000014305115},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/treatment-initiation-timing","display_name":"treatment initiation timing","score":0.7710000276565552},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/covid-19-mortality","display_name":"COVID-19 mortality","score":0.7369999885559082},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/hospitalization","display_name":"hospitalization","score":0.8270000219345093},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/transmission-reduction","display_name":"transmission reduction","score":0.7770000100135803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/vaccination","display_name":"vaccination","score":0.5120000243186951},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/agent-based-modeling","display_name":"agent-based modeling","score":0.6480000019073486},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/pandemic-mitigation","display_name":"pandemic mitigation","score":0.5350000262260437}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89623803","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12184","display_name":"Pandemic","level":5,"score":0.841719388961792},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.8130001425743103},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3006700255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q81068910","display_name":"2019-20 coronavirus outbreak","level":3,"score":0.664341926574707},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3007834351","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q82069695","display_name":"Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)","level":5,"score":0.6245214343070984},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159047783","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7215","display_name":"Virology","level":1,"score":0.46540743112564087},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778137277","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q16532287","display_name":"Betacoronavirus","level":5,"score":0.4126822352409363},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.36468011140823364},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116675565","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3241045","display_name":"Outbreak","level":2,"score":0.11079156398773193},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.09661921858787537},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.0858076810836792},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126322002","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11180","display_name":"Internal medicine","level":1,"score":0.05541244149208069}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:cdr.lib.unc.edu:h989rc85k","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.17615/g1xd-0k64","pdf_url":"https://doi.org/10.17615/g1xd-0k64","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401075","display_name":"Carolina Digital Repository (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I114027177","host_organization_name":"University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I114027177"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"BMC Infectious Diseases, 22(1)","raw_type":"Article"},{"id":"doi:10.17615/g1xd-0k64","doi":"https://doi.org/10.17615/g1xd-0k64","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.17615/g1xd-0k64","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S7407051488","display_name":"UNC Libraries","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article-journal"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:cdr.lib.unc.edu:h989rc85k","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.17615/g1xd-0k64","pdf_url":"https://doi.org/10.17615/g1xd-0k64","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401075","display_name":"Carolina Digital Repository (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I114027177","host_organization_name":"University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I114027177"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"BMC Infectious Diseases, 22(1)","raw_type":"Article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","score":1.0,"display_name":"Good health and well-being"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4372991418","display_name":"RAPID: A comparative online simulation tool for COVID-19 vaccine allocation","funder_award_id":"2210382","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","funder_display_name":"National Science Foundation"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","display_name":"National Science Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/021nxhr62"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4294368287.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4294368287.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3153544070","https://openalex.org/W6902162394","https://openalex.org/W4399902554","https://openalex.org/W6939032917","https://openalex.org/W6939782168","https://openalex.org/W4405061254","https://openalex.org/W4283527530","https://openalex.org/W4400021764","https://openalex.org/W6939498046","https://openalex.org/W6977320051"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Background:":[0],"Despite":[1],"the":[2,34,45,50,124,155,212,221],"development":[3],"of":[4,29,49,52,65,110,117,126,132,165,171,186,215],"safe":[5],"and":[6,62,73,82,84,101,112,129,162,217,277,279],"effective":[7,9,25],"vaccines,":[8],"treatments":[10,54,261],"for":[11],"COVID-19":[12,30,127,253,275],"disease":[13],"are":[14],"still":[15],"urgently":[16],"needed.":[17],"Several":[18],"antiviral":[19,53,77,86,102,115,152,178,218,245,260],"drugs":[20],"have":[21,226],"shown":[22],"to":[23,43,154,190,198,203,251],"be":[24,248],"in":[26,55,104,143,240,268],"reducing":[27,80,89,105],"progression":[28],"disease.":[31],"Methods:":[32],"In":[33],"present":[35],"work,":[36],"we":[37,94],"use":[38,51],"an":[39],"agent-based":[40],"mathematical":[41],"model":[42,148,236],"assess":[44],"potential":[46,85],"population":[47,232],"impact":[48,230],"four":[56],"countries":[57],"with":[58,270],"different":[59],"demographic":[60],"structure":[61],"current":[63],"levels":[64],"vaccination":[66,216,222],"coverage:":[67],"Kenya,":[68],"Mexico,":[69],"United":[70],"States":[71],"(US)":[72],"Belgium.":[74],"We":[75],"analyzed":[76],"effects":[78,87],"on":[79,88,231],"hospitalization":[81],"death,":[83],"transmission.":[90,233,284],"For":[91],"each":[92],"country,":[93],"varied":[95],"daily":[96,137],"treatment":[97,116,153,179,200,246],"initiation":[98],"rate":[99,223],"(DTIR)":[100],"effect":[103,214],"transmission":[106],"(AVT).":[107],"Results:":[108],"Irrespective":[109],"location":[111],"AVT,":[113],"widespread":[114],"symptomatic":[118,135],"adult":[119,134],"infections":[120,136,196],"(20%":[121],"DTIR)":[122],"prevented":[123],"majority":[125],"deaths,":[128],"recruiting":[130],"6%":[131],"all":[133,144],"reduced":[138],"mortality":[139],"by":[140],"over":[141,169],"20%":[142],"countries.":[145],"Furthermore,":[146],"our":[147,235],"projected":[149],"that":[150,176,238,259],"targeting":[151],"oldest":[156],"age":[157],"group":[158],"(65":[159],"years":[160],"old":[161],"older,":[163],"DTIR":[164],"20%)":[166],"can":[167,247,262,272,280],"prevent":[168],"30%":[170],"deaths.":[172,254],"Our":[173,209],"results":[174,210,257],"suggest":[175,258],"early":[177],"(as":[180],"soon":[181],"as":[182,220],"possible":[183],"after":[184,206],"inception":[185],"infection)":[187],"is":[188],"needed":[189],"mitigate":[191,252],"transmission,":[192],"preventing":[193],"50%":[194],"more":[195],"compared":[197],"late":[199],"(started":[201],"3":[202],"5":[204],"days":[205],"symptoms":[207],"onset).":[208],"highlight":[211],"synergistic":[213],"treatment:":[219],"increases,":[224],"antivirals":[225],"a":[227,264],"larger":[228],"relative":[229],"Finally,":[234],"projects":[237],"even":[239],"highly":[241],"vaccinated":[242],"populations,":[243],"adding":[244],"extremely":[249],"helpful":[250],"Conclusions:":[255],"These":[256],"become":[263],"strategic":[265],"tool":[266],"that,":[267],"combination":[269],"vaccination,":[271],"significantly":[273],"reduce":[274],"hospitalizations":[276],"deaths":[278],"help":[281],"control":[282],"SARS-CoV-2":[283]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-10-16T09:59:22.235173","created_date":"2022-09-03T00:00:00"}