{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4290632045","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2022.2090933","title":"When the levee breaks: A forecasting model of violent and nonviolent dissent","display_name":"When the levee breaks: A forecasting model of violent and nonviolent dissent","publication_year":2022,"publication_date":"2022-08-08","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4290632045","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2022.2090933"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1080/03050629.2022.2090933","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2022.2090933","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2022.2090933","pdf_url":"https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/03050629.2022.2090933?needAccess=true","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S194428652","display_name":"International Interactions","issn_l":"0305-0629","issn":["0305-0629","1547-7444"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-140","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547","https://openalex.org/P4310320449"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis","Informa"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Interactions","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/03050629.2022.2090933?needAccess=true","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5018543290","display_name":"Jonathan C. Pinckney","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8427-7423","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8427-7423"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I176802434","display_name":"United States Institute of Peace","ror":"https://ror.org/00m3wrz48","country_code":"US","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I176802434"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jonathan Pinckney","raw_affiliation_strings":["Program on Nonviolent Action, United States Institute of Peace"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8427-7423","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Program on Nonviolent Action, United States Institute of Peace","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I176802434"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5016347968","display_name":"Babak RezaeeDaryakenari","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4717-5409","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4717-5409"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I121797337","display_name":"Leiden University","ror":"https://ror.org/027bh9e22","country_code":"NL","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I121797337"]}],"countries":["NL"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Babak RezaeeDaryakenari","raw_affiliation_strings":["The Institute of Political Science, Leiden University"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4717-5409","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"The Institute of Political Science, Leiden University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I121797337"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5016347968"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I121797337"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":3.2259,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":12,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.92079038,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":93,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"48","issue":"5","first_page":"997","last_page":"1026"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10070","display_name":"Political Conflict and Governance","score":0.9984999895095825,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10070","display_name":"Political Conflict and Governance","score":0.9984999895095825,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12263","display_name":"Peacebuilding and International Security","score":0.00019999999494757503,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.00019999999494757503,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/conflict-prediction","display_name":"conflict prediction","score":0.7720000147819519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/armed-conflict","display_name":"armed conflict","score":0.7369999885559082},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/civil-war","display_name":"civil war","score":0.5260000228881836},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"machine learning","score":0.5839999914169312},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ensemble-forecasting","display_name":"ensemble forecasting","score":0.6690000295639038},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economic-development","display_name":"economic development","score":0.8050000071525574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cross-validation","display_name":"cross-validation","score":0.41499999165534973},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/algorithm-comparison","display_name":"algorithm comparison","score":0.6399999856948853},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/political-dynamics","display_name":"political dynamics","score":0.38100001215934753},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/structural-factors","display_name":"structural factors","score":0.6299999952316284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/armed-uprising","display_name":"armed uprising","score":0.3479999899864197},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/political-violence","display_name":"political violence","score":0.3160000145435333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/political-economy-of-conflict","display_name":"political economy of conflict","score":0.37299999594688416},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/political-economy-of-protest","display_name":"political economy of protest","score":0.3490000069141388}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C523173360","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1991663","display_name":"Dissent","level":3,"score":0.5906895399093628},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C94625758","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7163","display_name":"Politics","level":2,"score":0.4806762635707855},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3019338729","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q198","display_name":"Armed conflict","level":2,"score":0.4656226336956024},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.46210938692092896},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.3456743359565735},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.3427771329879761},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.18147915601730347},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.0899345874786377}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1080/03050629.2022.2090933","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2022.2090933","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2022.2090933","pdf_url":"https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/03050629.2022.2090933?needAccess=true","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S194428652","display_name":"International Interactions","issn_l":"0305-0629","issn":["0305-0629","1547-7444"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-140","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547","https://openalex.org/P4310320449"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis","Informa"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Interactions","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:48:y:2022:i:5:p:997-1026","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/03050629.2022.2090933","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:scholarlypublications.universiteitleiden.nl:item_3453388","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/suppl/10.1080/03050629.2022.2090933?scroll=top","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400850","display_name":"Leiden Repository (Leiden University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I121797337","host_organization_name":"Leiden University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I121797337"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"International Interactions","raw_type":"Article / Letter to editor"},{"id":"pmh:ul:oai:scholarlypublications.universiteitleiden.nl:item_3453388","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/1887/3453388","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401843","display_name":"Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1322597698","host_organization_name":"Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1322597698"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"International Interactions. Informa {UK} Limited","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1080/03050629.2022.2090933","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2022.2090933","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2022.2090933","pdf_url":"https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/03050629.2022.2090933?needAccess=true","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S194428652","display_name":"International Interactions","issn_l":"0305-0629","issn":["0305-0629","1547-7444"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-140","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547","https://openalex.org/P4310320449"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis","Informa"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Interactions","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.9200000166893005,"display_name":"Peace, justice, and strong institutions","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16"}],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4290632045.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4290632045.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":57,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1236486349","https://openalex.org/W1561432674","https://openalex.org/W1569519199","https://openalex.org/W1678356000","https://openalex.org/W1928361905","https://openalex.org/W1990878931","https://openalex.org/W1995850706","https://openalex.org/W2027832732","https://openalex.org/W2028760981","https://openalex.org/W2056512576","https://openalex.org/W2069251722","https://openalex.org/W2076602957","https://openalex.org/W2088385509","https://openalex.org/W2117564857","https://openalex.org/W2119886429","https://openalex.org/W2132054149","https://openalex.org/W2144960654","https://openalex.org/W2144981148","https://openalex.org/W2149289365","https://openalex.org/W2151780178","https://openalex.org/W2167872858","https://openalex.org/W2228857922","https://openalex.org/W2269038904","https://openalex.org/W2274978572","https://openalex.org/W2275632435","https://openalex.org/W2278972578","https://openalex.org/W2282016876","https://openalex.org/W2315460250","https://openalex.org/W2319803923","https://openalex.org/W2323505347","https://openalex.org/W2341941580","https://openalex.org/W2489258484","https://openalex.org/W2504519278","https://openalex.org/W2577331746","https://openalex.org/W2582861947","https://openalex.org/W2589271383","https://openalex.org/W2591386225","https://openalex.org/W2607094075","https://openalex.org/W2614996688","https://openalex.org/W2847947990","https://openalex.org/W2911964244","https://openalex.org/W2914509225","https://openalex.org/W2916209095","https://openalex.org/W2954947654","https://openalex.org/W3017867703","https://openalex.org/W3045567670","https://openalex.org/W3122027301","https://openalex.org/W3122074090","https://openalex.org/W3134131580","https://openalex.org/W3153301617","https://openalex.org/W4206732327","https://openalex.org/W4233197625","https://openalex.org/W4233782960","https://openalex.org/W4254910523","https://openalex.org/W4398265979","https://openalex.org/W4398707142","https://openalex.org/W4398850534"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2748952813","https://openalex.org/W2020668303","https://openalex.org/W4229908461","https://openalex.org/W4241808422","https://openalex.org/W2175503204","https://openalex.org/W4225300196","https://openalex.org/W164480699","https://openalex.org/W1550660973","https://openalex.org/W4241984191","https://openalex.org/W2002811607"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Forecasting":[0],"major":[1,98,187],"political":[2,143,188],"conflicts":[3,22,32,102],"is":[4,180],"a":[5,37,45,75,297,310,353,378,402,603],"long-time":[6],"interest":[7],"in":[8,55,86,167,173,214],"conflict":[9,166,196],"research.":[10],"However,":[11,190],"the":[12,60,87,91,104,174,203],"literature":[13,88,175],"thus":[14],"far":[15],"has":[16],"focused":[17],"almost":[18],"exclusively":[19],"on":[20,64,108,125],"armed":[21,99,163,195],"such":[23,42,133],"as":[24,134],"civil":[25],"wars.":[26],"Attempts":[27],"to":[28,35,40,59,150,169,209],"forecast":[29,41,194],"primarily":[30],"unarmed":[31,101,165,200],"have":[33],"yet":[34],"identify":[36],"model":[38,95],"able":[39],"uprisings":[43],"with":[44],"high":[46],"degree":[47],"of":[48,74,78,96,114,128,138,186],"accuracy.":[49],"This":[50,81,155],"thorny":[51],"forecasting":[52,66,79,94,121,153,212],"problem":[53],"may":[54],"part":[56],"be":[57],"due":[58],"literature\u2019s":[61],"heavy":[62],"focus":[63],"parametric":[65],"methods":[67,172],"and":[68,72,100,112,119,136,141,164,176],"relatively":[69],"rare":[70],"testing":[71],"comparison":[73,113,168],"wide":[76],"range":[77],"algorithms.":[80],"paper":[82],"addresses":[83],"these":[84],"gaps":[85],"by":[89,146],"developing":[90],"first":[92],"unified":[93],"both":[97,162],"at":[103],"country-year":[105],"level":[106],"based":[107],"extensive":[109],"training,":[110],"cross-validation,":[111],"eight":[115],"machine":[116],"learning":[117],"algorithms":[118,192],"five":[120],"ensembles.":[122],"We":[123],"draw":[124],"two":[126],"types":[127,663],"data:":[129],"slow-moving":[130],"structural":[131],"factors":[132],"geography":[135],"levels":[137],"economic":[139],"development":[140,208],"short-term":[142],"dynamics":[144],"captured":[145],"events":[147],"data":[148],"trends,":[149],"inform":[151,210],"our":[152,191],"models.":[154],"approach":[156],"significantly":[157,197],"improves":[158],"predictive":[159],"power":[160],"for":[161,183,205],"commonly":[170],"used":[171],"suggests":[177],"that":[178],"there":[179],"significant":[181],"room":[182],"improving":[184],"forecasts":[185],"conflicts.":[189],"still":[193],"better":[198],"than":[199],"conflict,":[201],"suggesting":[202],"need":[204],"continued":[206],"theory":[207],"future":[211],"efforts":[213,536,781],"this":[215],"area.El":[216],"poder":[217,427],"predecir":[218,264],"los":[219,252,305,344,350,392,411,414,432,437,443,464,476,480,495],"grandes":[220,345,465],"conflictos":[221,253,346,433,466,477],"pol\u00edticos":[222],"es":[223],"un":[224,274,282,456,508,559,635,764],"tema":[225],"que":[226,298,311,445,454,479,484,531,674,732,757],"interesa":[227],"desde":[228],"hace":[229],"tiempo":[230],"dentro":[231],"del":[232],"campo":[233],"de":[234,237,263,277,285,316,320,322,340,343,349,355,367,370,381,385,394,413,420,428,463,488,498,503,510,537,552,562,567,581,583,588,631,664,680,707,712,769,774,782],"la":[235,243,299,333,365,389,399,450,486,491,518,594,675,728,733,752,767],"investigaci\u00f3n":[236],"conflictos.":[238],"Sin":[239,468],"embargo,":[240,469],"hasta":[241],"ahora,":[242],"literatura":[244,300,334,451],"especializada":[245],"se":[246,301,446],"ha":[247],"centrado":[248],"casi":[249],"exclusivamente":[250],"en":[251,295,304,332,358,364,406,410,440,449,500,609],"armados,":[254,268,439,482],"como,":[255],"por":[256],"ejemplo,":[257],"las":[258,312,407,461],"guerras":[259],"civiles.":[260,534],"Los":[261],"intentos":[262],"conflictos,":[265],"principalmente":[266],"no":[267,270,351,438,481],"a\u00fan":[269],"han":[271],"podido":[272],"identificar":[273],"modelo":[275,338],"capaz":[276],"pronosticar":[278],"estos":[279],"levantamientos":[280],"con":[281,442],"alto":[283],"grado":[284],"precisi\u00f3n.":[286],"Este":[287,327,422],"azaroso":[288],"problema":[289],"para":[290,416,431,436,459,493],"realizar":[291],"predicciones":[292,462],"puede":[293],"deberse,":[294],"parte,":[296],"centra":[302],"mucho":[303,474],"m\u00e9todos":[306,444],"predictivos":[307],"param\u00e9tricos":[308],"y":[309,314,363,373,391,452],"pruebas":[313],"comparaciones":[315],"una":[317],"amplia":[318],"gama":[319],"algoritmos":[321,369,471],"predicci\u00f3n":[323,499],"son":[324],"relativamente":[325],"escasas.":[326],"art\u00edculo":[328],"aborda":[329],"estas":[330],"lagunas":[331],"desarrollando":[335,490],"el":[336,426],"primer":[337],"unificado":[339],"predicci\u00f3n,":[341,429],"tanto":[342,430],"armados":[347,352,434,478],"como":[348,388,398,435],"nivel":[354],"pa\u00eds-a\u00f1o,":[356],"basado":[357],"formaci\u00f3n":[359],"intensiva,":[360],"validaci\u00f3n":[361],"cruzada":[362],"comparaci\u00f3n":[366,441],"ocho":[368],"aprendizaje":[371],"autom\u00e1tico":[372],"cinco":[374],"conjuntos":[375],"predictivos.":[376],"Recurrimos":[377],"dos":[379],"tipos":[380],"datos:":[382],"factores":[383],"estructurales":[384],"evoluci\u00f3n":[386],"lenta,":[387],"geograf\u00eda":[390],"niveles":[393],"desarrollo":[395],"econ\u00f3mico,":[396],"as\u00ed":[397],"din\u00e1mica":[400],"pol\u00edtica":[401],"corto":[403],"plazo":[404],"plasmada":[405],"tendencias":[408],"registradas":[409],"datos":[412],"acontecimientos,":[415],"fundamentar":[417,494],"nuestros":[418,470],"modelos":[419],"predicci\u00f3n.":[421],"enfoque":[423],"mejora":[424],"significativamente":[425],"usan":[447],"habitualmente":[448],"sugiere":[453,485],"hay":[455],"margen":[457],"significativo":[458],"mejorar":[460],"pol\u00edticos.":[467],"siguen":[472],"prediciendo":[473],"mejor":[475],"lo":[483],"necesidad":[487],"seguir":[489],"teor\u00eda":[492],"futuros":[496],"esfuerzos":[497],"este":[501],"\u00e1mbito.L\u2019anticipation":[502],"conflits":[504,528,542,618,716,736,755,760],"politiques":[505,689,737],"majeurs":[506,619,738],"est":[507,522,569],"objet":[509],"recherche":[511],"d\u00e9j\u00e0":[512],"ancien.":[513],"Toutefois,":[514,744],"\u00e0":[515,573,593,605,670,690,776],"ce":[516,557,771,785],"jour,":[517],"litt\u00e9rature":[519,575],"sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9e":[520],"existante":[521],"presque":[523],"exclusivement":[524],"focalis\u00e9e":[525],"sur":[526,540,578,634,645,661,686,697],"les":[527,532,554,698,710,715,759,779],"arm\u00e9s,":[529,623,720],"tels":[530,673],"guerres":[533],"Les":[535],"pr\u00e9diction":[538,713],"portant":[539,644],"des":[541,579,617,667,687,695,735,754],"principalement":[543],"non":[544,622,719,761],"arm\u00e9s":[545,620,717,756,762],"requi\u00e8rent":[546],"donc":[547],"l\u2019identification":[548],"d\u2019un":[549,596],"mod\u00e8le":[550,613,632],"capable":[551],"pr\u00e9voir":[553],"soul\u00e8vements,":[555],"et":[556,592,626,641,650,685,730],"avec":[558],"haut":[560],"degr\u00e9":[561],"pr\u00e9cision.":[563],"Cet":[564,601],"\u00e9pineux":[565],"probl\u00e8me":[566],"pr\u00e9vision":[568,582,734,753,783],"probablement":[570],"partiellement":[571],"d\u00fb":[572],"une":[574,638,642],"fortement":[576],"ax\u00e9e":[577],"m\u00e9thodes":[580,724],"type":[584,630],"param\u00e9trique,":[585],"laissant":[586],"peu":[587],"place":[589],"au":[590],"test":[591],"comparaison":[595,643],"vaste":[597],"\u00e9ventail":[598],"d\u2019algorithmes":[599],"pr\u00e9dictifs.":[600,653],"article":[602],"vocation":[604],"combler":[606],"cette":[607],"lacune":[608],"d\u00e9veloppant":[610],"le":[611,678],"premier":[612],"pr\u00e9dictif":[614],"unifi\u00e9":[615],"pour":[616,714,751,758],"comme":[621,718],"par":[624,627,694,721],"pays":[625],"ann\u00e9e.":[628],"Ce":[629],"s\u2019appuie":[633],"entra\u00eenement":[636],"approfondi,":[637],"validation":[639],"crois\u00e9e":[640],"huit":[646],"algorithmes":[647,746],"d\u2019apprentissage":[648],"automatique":[649],"cinq":[651],"ensembles":[652],"Pour":[654],"informer":[655,778],"nos":[656,745],"mod\u00e8les,":[657],"nous":[658,659],"appuyons":[660],"deux":[662],"donn\u00e9es":[665,696],":":[666],"facteurs":[668],"structurels":[669],"\u00e9volution":[671],"lente,":[672],"g\u00e9ographie":[676],"ou":[677],"niveau":[679],"d\u00e9veloppement":[681],"\u00e9conomique,":[682],"d\u2019une":[683],"part,":[684],"dynamiques":[688],"court":[691],"terme,":[692],"illustr\u00e9es":[693],"tendances":[699],"\u00e9v\u00e9nementielles,":[700],"d\u2019autre":[701],"part.":[702],"Cette":[703],"approche":[704],"permet":[705],"d\u2019am\u00e9liorer":[706],"mani\u00e8re":[708,775],"significative":[709],"capacit\u00e9s":[711],"rapport":[722],"aux":[723],"habituellement":[725],"utilis\u00e9es":[726],"dans":[727,784],"litt\u00e9rature,":[729],"sugg\u00e8re":[731],"peut":[739],"encore":[740],"\u00eatre":[741],"consid\u00e9rablement":[742],"optimis\u00e9e.":[743],"restent":[747],"nettement":[748],"plus":[749],"performants":[750],";":[763],"constat":[765],"refl\u00e9tant":[766],"n\u00e9cessit\u00e9":[768],"poursuivre":[770],"travail":[772],"th\u00e9orique,":[773],"mieux":[777],"futurs":[780],"domaine.":[786]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-10-14T16:39:01.820549","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}