{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4285390723","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1162806/v2","title":"A new look at the anthropogenic global warming consensus: an econometric forecast based on the Arima Model of paleoclimate series.","display_name":"A new look at the anthropogenic global warming consensus: an econometric forecast based on the Arima Model of paleoclimate series.","publication_year":2022,"publication_date":"2022-07-14","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4285390723","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1162806/v2"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1162806/v2","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1162806/v2","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1162806/v2","pdf_url":"https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1162806/latest.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525896","display_name":"Research Square","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Research Square","raw_type":"posted-content"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["arxiv","crossref","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1162806/latest.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5018179548","display_name":"Gilmar Veriato Fluzer Santos","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I193876067","display_name":"Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paran\u00e1","ror":"https://ror.org/05ne20t07","country_code":"BR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I193876067"]}],"countries":["BR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Gilmar Veriato Fluzer Santos","raw_affiliation_strings":["Western Paran\u00e1 State University"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Western Paran\u00e1 State University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I193876067"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5050273753","display_name":"Lucas Gamalel Cordeiro","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I193876067","display_name":"Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paran\u00e1","ror":"https://ror.org/05ne20t07","country_code":"BR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I193876067"]}],"countries":["BR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Lucas Gamalel Cordeiro","raw_affiliation_strings":["Western Paran\u00e1 State University"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Western Paran\u00e1 State University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I193876067"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5046395212","display_name":"Cl\u00e1udio Ant\u00f4nio Rojo","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4484-9033","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4484-9033"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I193876067","display_name":"Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paran\u00e1","ror":"https://ror.org/05ne20t07","country_code":"BR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I193876067"]}],"countries":["BR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Claudio Antonio Rojo","raw_affiliation_strings":["Western Paran\u00e1 State University"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Western Paran\u00e1 State University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I193876067"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5032502233","display_name":"Edison Luiz Leismann","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4112-8241","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4112-8241"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I193876067","display_name":"Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paran\u00e1","ror":"https://ror.org/05ne20t07","country_code":"BR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I193876067"]}],"countries":["BR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Edison Luiz Leismann","raw_affiliation_strings":["Western Paran\u00e1 State University"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Western Paran\u00e1 State University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I193876067"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I193876067"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.9564999938011169,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.9564999938011169,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10017","display_name":"Geology and Paleoclimatology Research","score":0.032499998807907104,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13530","display_name":"Climate Change and Environmental Impact","score":0.004900000058114529,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/anthropogenic-climate-change","display_name":"anthropogenic climate change","score":0.9890000224113464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-change-projections","display_name":"climate change projections","score":0.718999981880188},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/paleoclimate","display_name":"paleoclimate","score":0.8859999775886536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/arima-model","display_name":"ARIMA model","score":0.972000002861023}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24338571","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2566298","display_name":"Autoregressive integrated moving average","level":3,"score":0.7939339876174927},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33683781","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q191069","display_name":"Paleoclimatology","level":3,"score":0.6624109745025635},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.6221603155136108},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5844597220420837},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132651083","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Climate change","level":2,"score":0.571790874004364},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143724316","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q312468","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","level":2,"score":0.509425699710846},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159877910","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2202883","display_name":"Autoregressive model","level":2,"score":0.4607011675834656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.36913561820983887},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.3638342618942261},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.33003541827201843},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.27624183893203735},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.2681286334991455},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.2639201581478119},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.23331019282341003},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.22109928727149963},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111368507","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43518","display_name":"Oceanography","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151730666","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7205","display_name":"Paleontology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1162806/v2","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1162806/v2","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1162806/v2","pdf_url":"https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1162806/latest.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525896","display_name":"Research Square","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Research Square","raw_type":"posted-content"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:arx:papers:2109.10419","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/pdf/2109.10419","pdf_url":"http://arxiv.org/pdf/2109.10419","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2109.10419","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/2109.10419","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2109.10419","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2109.10419","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2109.10419","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2109.10419","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1162806/v2","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1162806/v2","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1162806/v2","pdf_url":"https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1162806/latest.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525896","display_name":"Research Square","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Research Square","raw_type":"posted-content"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","score":1.0,"display_name":"Climate action"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4285390723.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4285390723.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":24,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W641945317","https://openalex.org/W1600607130","https://openalex.org/W1668280642","https://openalex.org/W1899062379","https://openalex.org/W1968215163","https://openalex.org/W2013974666","https://openalex.org/W2054167751","https://openalex.org/W2059175769","https://openalex.org/W2127050758","https://openalex.org/W2196672866","https://openalex.org/W2409747310","https://openalex.org/W2477834368","https://openalex.org/W2610782730","https://openalex.org/W2758644367","https://openalex.org/W2767934905","https://openalex.org/W2924516531","https://openalex.org/W2951988039","https://openalex.org/W2966446996","https://openalex.org/W3035651437","https://openalex.org/W3148110872","https://openalex.org/W4205383247","https://openalex.org/W4229539396","https://openalex.org/W4386111401","https://openalex.org/W6762158796"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4294147145","https://openalex.org/W4206777450","https://openalex.org/W3200546858","https://openalex.org/W1999982774","https://openalex.org/W2331293371","https://openalex.org/W4408431942","https://openalex.org/W4236248103","https://openalex.org/W7023656732","https://openalex.org/W1980172890","https://openalex.org/W7135175163"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"This":[1],"paper":[2],"aims":[3],"to":[4,86,88,100],"project":[5],"a":[6,11,66,71,77,93,110],"climate":[7],"change":[8],"scenario":[9],"using":[10],"stochastic":[12],"paleotemperature":[13],"time":[14],"series":[15],"model":[16,32,47],"and":[17,57,76,105],"compare":[18],"it":[19],"with":[20,83,116],"the":[21,42,46,54,62,89,101,107,121],"prevailing":[22],"consensus.":[23],"The":[24,38],"ARIMA":[25],"-":[26],"Autoregressive":[27],"Integrated":[28],"Moving":[29],"Average":[30],"Process":[31],"was":[33],"used":[34],"for":[35],"this":[36,84],"purpose.":[37],"results":[39],"show":[40],"that":[41],"parameter":[43],"estimates":[44],"of":[45,73,96],"were":[48],"below":[49],"what":[50],"is":[51],"established":[52],"by":[53,91],"anthropogenic":[55],"current":[56,102],"governmental":[58],"organs,":[59],"such":[60],"as":[61],"IPCC":[63],"(UN),":[64],"considering":[65],"100-year":[67],"scenario,":[68],"which":[69],"suggests":[70],"period":[72],"temperature":[74],"reduction":[75],"probable":[78],"cooling.":[79],"Thus,":[80],"we":[81],"hope":[82],"study":[85],"contribute":[87],"discussion":[90],"adding":[92],"statistical":[94],"element":[95],"paleoclimate":[97],"in":[98,109,114],"counterpoint":[99],"scientific":[103],"consensus":[104],"place":[106],"debate":[108],"long-term":[111],"historical":[112],"dimension,":[113],"line":[115],"other":[117],"existing":[118],"research":[119],"on":[120],"topic.":[122]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-10-16T09:59:22.235173","created_date":"2022-07-14T00:00:00"}