{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4281853559","doi":"https://doi.org/10.12688/hrbopenres.13525.1","title":"Projecting future health and service use among older people in Ireland: an overview of a dynamic microsimulation model in The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA)","display_name":"Projecting future health and service use among older people in Ireland: an overview of a dynamic microsimulation model in The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA)","publication_year":2022,"publication_date":"2022-03-21","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4281853559","doi":"https://doi.org/10.12688/hrbopenres.13525.1","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36262382","pmcid":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/9554695"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.12688/hrbopenres.13525.1","doi":"https://doi.org/10.12688/hrbopenres.13525.1","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.12688/hrbopenres.13525.1","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210186582","display_name":"HRB Open Research","issn_l":"2515-4826","issn":["2515-4826"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["doaj","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320357","host_organization_name":"Faculty of 1000","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320357","https://openalex.org/P4310320547"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Faculty of 1000","Taylor & Francis"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"HRB Open Research","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.12688/hrbopenres.13525.1","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5007607755","display_name":"Peter May","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8501-6500","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8501-6500"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I205274468","display_name":"Trinity College Dublin","ror":"https://ror.org/02tyrky19","country_code":"IE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205274468"]}],"countries":["IE"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Peter May","raw_affiliation_strings":["Centre for Health Policy and Management, Trinity College Dublin, 3-4 Foster Place, Dublin, D2","The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing, Trinity College Dublin, Pearse Street, Dublin, D2"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8501-6500","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Centre for Health Policy and Management, Trinity College Dublin, 3-4 Foster Place, Dublin, D2","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I205274468"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing, Trinity College Dublin, Pearse Street, Dublin, D2","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I205274468"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5051943172","display_name":"Charles E. M. Normand","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0885-5754","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0885-5754"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I183935753","display_name":"King's College London","ror":"https://ror.org/0220mzb33","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I124357947","https://openalex.org/I183935753"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I205274468","display_name":"Trinity College Dublin","ror":"https://ror.org/02tyrky19","country_code":"IE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205274468"]}],"countries":["GB","IE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Charles Normand","raw_affiliation_strings":["Centre for Health Policy and Management, Trinity College Dublin, 3-4 Foster Place, Dublin, D2","Cicely Saunders Institute, King's College London, Denmark Hill, London, SE1 1UL"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0885-5754","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Centre for Health Policy and Management, Trinity College Dublin, 3-4 Foster Place, Dublin, D2","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I205274468"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Cicely Saunders Institute, King's College London, Denmark Hill, London, SE1 1UL","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I183935753"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5105008630","display_name":"Soraya Matthews","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I205274468","display_name":"Trinity College Dublin","ror":"https://ror.org/02tyrky19","country_code":"IE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205274468"]}],"countries":["IE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Soraya Matthews","raw_affiliation_strings":["Centre for Health Policy and Management, Trinity College Dublin, 3-4 Foster Place, Dublin, D2"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Centre for Health Policy and Management, Trinity College Dublin, 3-4 Foster Place, Dublin, D2","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I205274468"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5027947710","display_name":"Rose Anne Kenny","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9336-8124","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9336-8124"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I205274468","display_name":"Trinity College Dublin","ror":"https://ror.org/02tyrky19","country_code":"IE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205274468"]}],"countries":["IE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Rose Anne Kenny","raw_affiliation_strings":["The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing, Trinity College Dublin, Pearse Street, Dublin, D2"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9336-8124","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing, Trinity College Dublin, Pearse Street, Dublin, D2","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I205274468"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5037807756","display_name":"Rom\u00e1n Romero\u2010Ortu\u00f1o","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3882-7447","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3882-7447"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I205274468","display_name":"Trinity College Dublin","ror":"https://ror.org/02tyrky19","country_code":"IE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205274468"]}],"countries":["IE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Roman Romero-Ortuno","raw_affiliation_strings":["Global Brain Health Institute, Trinity College Dublin, Lloyd Institute, Dublin, D2","The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing, Trinity College Dublin, Pearse Street, Dublin, D2"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3882-7447","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Global Brain Health Institute, Trinity College Dublin, Lloyd Institute, Dublin, D2","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I205274468"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing, Trinity College Dublin, Pearse Street, Dublin, D2","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I205274468"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5086722669","display_name":"Bryan Tysinger","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8497-3664","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8497-3664"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1174212","display_name":"University of Southern California","ror":"https://ror.org/03taz7m60","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1174212"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Bryan Tysinger","raw_affiliation_strings":["Leonard D. Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, 90007"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8497-3664","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Leonard D. Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, 90007","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1174212"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":3,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5007607755"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I205274468"],"apc_list":{"value":859,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":926},"apc_paid":{"value":859,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":926},"fwci":5.8409,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":15,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.96013688,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":93,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"5","issue":null,"first_page":"21","last_page":"21"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12011","display_name":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","score":0.4749000072479248,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12011","display_name":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","score":0.4749000072479248,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14509","display_name":"demographic modeling and climate adaptation","score":0.32839998602867126,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12811","display_name":"Aging, Health, and Disability","score":0.1103999987244606,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2739","display_name":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/population-aging","display_name":"population aging","score":0.7860000133514404},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/older-adults","display_name":"older adults","score":0.7919999957084656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/health-projections","display_name":"health projections","score":0.6899999976158142},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/microsimulation-model","display_name":"microsimulation model","score":0.7639999985694885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/serious-illness","display_name":"serious illness","score":0.5329999923706055},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/functional-limitations","display_name":"functional limitations","score":0.7590000033378601},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mortality","display_name":"mortality","score":0.828000009059906},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/chronic-disease","display_name":"chronic disease","score":0.7519999742507935},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/health-policy","display_name":"health policy","score":0.5090000033378601},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ireland","display_name":"Ireland","score":0.49900001287460327}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780015235","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1934035","display_name":"Microsimulation","level":2,"score":0.6569318771362305},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C13774568","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q439112","display_name":"Population ageing","level":3,"score":0.6371819972991943},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.5192856192588806},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780623531","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9142","display_name":"Irish","level":2,"score":0.46599280834198},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160735492","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q31207","display_name":"Health care","level":2,"score":0.44417625665664673},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.3755798935890198},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C74909509","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10387","display_name":"Gerontology","level":1,"score":0.3470498323440552},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C50522688","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q189833","display_name":"Economic growth","level":1,"score":0.21871858835220337},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.20120203495025635},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.1930508017539978},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.14989960193634033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.0755515992641449},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C22212356","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q775325","display_name":"Transport engineering","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41895202","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8162","display_name":"Linguistics","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":5,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.12688/hrbopenres.13525.1","doi":"https://doi.org/10.12688/hrbopenres.13525.1","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.12688/hrbopenres.13525.1","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210186582","display_name":"HRB Open Research","issn_l":"2515-4826","issn":["2515-4826"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["doaj","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320357","host_organization_name":"Faculty of 1000","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320357","https://openalex.org/P4310320547"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Faculty of 1000","Taylor & Francis"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"HRB Open Research","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"doi:10.12688/hrbopenres.13525.2","doi":"https://doi.org/10.12688/hrbopenres.13525.2","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.12688/hrbopenres.13525.2","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210186582","display_name":"HRB Open Research","issn_l":"2515-4826","issn":["2515-4826"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["doaj","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320357","host_organization_name":"Faculty of 1000","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320357","https://openalex.org/P4310320547"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Faculty of 1000","Taylor & Francis"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"HRB Open Research","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:9554695","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/9554695","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"HRB Open Res","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmid:36262382","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36262382","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"HRB open research","raw_type":"Journal Article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:329f0c295e2e41aa87b7887e668f9193","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/329f0c295e2e41aa87b7887e668f9193","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"HRB Open Research, Vol 5 (2022)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.12688/hrbopenres.13525.1","doi":"https://doi.org/10.12688/hrbopenres.13525.1","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.12688/hrbopenres.13525.1","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210186582","display_name":"HRB Open Research","issn_l":"2515-4826","issn":["2515-4826"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["doaj","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320357","host_organization_name":"Faculty of 1000","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320357","https://openalex.org/P4310320547"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Faculty of 1000","Taylor & Francis"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"HRB Open Research","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.9074000120162964,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","display_name":"Good health and well-being"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G3446146039","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"ARPP-A-2018-005","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320312041","funder_display_name":"Health Research Board"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4910413386","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"ARPP/2018/A/005","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320312041","funder_display_name":"Health Research Board"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G6460590643","display_name":"Center for Advancing Sociodemographic and Economic Study of Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias (CeASES-ADRD)","funder_award_id":"P30AG066589","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337337","funder_display_name":"National Institute on Aging"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320312041","display_name":"Health Research Board","ror":"https://ror.org/003hb2249"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337337","display_name":"National Institute on Aging","ror":"https://ror.org/049v75w11"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":37,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1201749067","https://openalex.org/W1509021578","https://openalex.org/W1972478855","https://openalex.org/W2030918129","https://openalex.org/W2032698104","https://openalex.org/W2108417554","https://openalex.org/W2122522567","https://openalex.org/W2142200670","https://openalex.org/W2160272053","https://openalex.org/W2208766244","https://openalex.org/W2265414365","https://openalex.org/W2302487047","https://openalex.org/W2342170604","https://openalex.org/W2612827606","https://openalex.org/W2765980821","https://openalex.org/W2801488206","https://openalex.org/W2801689578","https://openalex.org/W2886436699","https://openalex.org/W2909583947","https://openalex.org/W2917734912","https://openalex.org/W2946486402","https://openalex.org/W2992636566","https://openalex.org/W2992723765","https://openalex.org/W3011871543","https://openalex.org/W3034413737","https://openalex.org/W3041607194","https://openalex.org/W3092258160","https://openalex.org/W3118430251","https://openalex.org/W3125847184","https://openalex.org/W3152427767","https://openalex.org/W3157866821","https://openalex.org/W3159767223","https://openalex.org/W3167487219","https://openalex.org/W4210783498","https://openalex.org/W4226213786","https://openalex.org/W4254696051","https://openalex.org/W7045147197"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W6906467387","https://openalex.org/W4226213786","https://openalex.org/W7052090121","https://openalex.org/W4403872563","https://openalex.org/W7065250473","https://openalex.org/W2945804775","https://openalex.org/W4413453173","https://openalex.org/W4403177143","https://openalex.org/W7074670245","https://openalex.org/W1114216002"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Background:":[0],"Demographic":[1],"ageing":[2],"is":[3,171,195],"a":[4,50,232],"population":[5,57,122,183],"health":[6,21,107,237,265],"success":[7],"story":[8],"but":[9,215],"poses":[10],"unprecedented":[11],"policy":[12,251,278],"challenges":[13,289],"in":[14,42,62,127,137,140,155,179,244,272],"the":[15,56,64,117,120,141,172,182,199,256],"21st":[16],"century.":[17],"Policymakers":[18],"must":[19],"prepare":[20],"systems,":[22],"economies":[23],"and":[24,40,60,110,146,151,154,162,191,205,221,230,238,260,266,283],"societies":[25],"for":[26,55,157,219],"these":[27,169,281],"challenges.":[28],"Policy":[29],"choices":[30],"can":[31],"be":[32,213],"usefully":[33],"informed":[34],"by":[35],"models":[36,88],"that":[37,235],"evaluate":[38,275],"outcomes":[39,240],"trade-offs":[41],"advance":[43],"under":[44],"different":[45,97],"scenarios.":[46],"Methods:":[47],"We":[48,82,112,208,227],"developed":[49,229],"dynamic":[51],"demographic-economic":[52],"microsimulation":[53,233],"model":[54,234,254],"aged":[58],"50":[59],"over":[61],"Ireland:":[63],"Irish":[65,76],"Future":[66,246],"Older":[67],"Adults":[68],"Model":[69],"(IFOAM).":[70],"Our":[71],"principal":[72],"dataset":[73],"was":[74],"The":[75,164,185,253],"Longitudinal":[77],"Study":[78],"on":[79,287],"Ageing":[80],"(TILDA).":[81],"employed":[83],"first-order":[84],"Markovian":[85],"competing":[86],"risks":[87],"to":[89,96,123,197,212,262,274,280,284],"estimate":[90,124],"transition":[91,114],"probabilities":[92,115],"of":[93,100,119,143,168,176,188,202,223,258],"TILDA":[94],"participants":[95],"outcomes:":[98],"diagnosis":[99],"serious":[101,149],"diseases,":[102],"functional":[103,152,206],"limitations,":[104],"risk-modifying":[105],"behaviours,":[106],"care":[108,159],"use":[109],"mortality.":[111],"combined":[113],"with":[116,148,291],"characteristics":[118],"stock":[121],"biennial":[125],"changes":[126],"outcome":[128],"state.":[129],"Results:":[130],"IFOAM":[131],"projections":[132],"estimated":[133],"large":[134],"annual":[135],"increases":[136,170],"total":[138],"deaths,":[139],"number":[142,175],"people":[144,178,243,271],"living":[145],"dying":[147],"illness":[150],"impairment,":[153],"demand":[156],"hospital":[158],"between":[160],"2018":[161],"2040.":[163],"most":[165,224],"important":[166],"driver":[167],"rising":[173],"absolute":[174],"older":[177,189,242,270],"Ireland":[180],"as":[181],"ages.":[184],"increasing":[186],"proportion":[187],"old":[190,193],"oldest":[192],"citizens":[194],"projected":[196],"increase":[198],"average":[200],"prevalence":[201],"chronic":[203],"conditions":[204],"limitations.":[207],"deemed":[209],"internal":[210],"validity":[211],"good":[214],"lacked":[216],"external":[217],"benchmarks":[218],"validation":[220],"corroboration":[222],"outcomes.":[225],"Conclusion:":[226],"have":[228],"validated":[231],"projects":[236],"related":[239],"among":[241,269],"Ireland.":[245],"research":[247],"should":[248],"address":[249],"identified":[250],"questions.":[252],"enhances":[255],"capacity":[257],"researchers":[259],"policymakers":[261],"quantitatively":[263],"forecast":[264],"economic":[267],"dynamics":[268],"Ireland,":[273],"ex":[276],"ante":[277],"responses":[279],"dynamics,":[282],"collaborate":[285],"internationally":[286],"global":[288],"associated":[290],"demographic":[292],"ageing.":[293]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-10-30T12:39:25.321706","created_date":"2022-06-13T00:00:00"}