{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4254407532","doi":"https://doi.org/10.17016/feds.2019.077","title":"Effective Lower Bound Risk","display_name":"Effective Lower Bound Risk","publication_year":2019,"publication_date":"2019-11-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4254407532","doi":"https://doi.org/10.17016/feds.2019.077"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.17016/feds.2019.077","doi":"https://doi.org/10.17016/feds.2019.077","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.17016/feds.2019.077","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210212089","display_name":"Finance and Economics Discussion Series","issn_l":"1936-2854","issn":["1936-2854","2767-3898"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"public-domain","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/public-domain","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Finance and Economics Discussion Series","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"diamond","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.17016/feds.2019.077","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5066547626","display_name":"Timothy Hills","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I57206974","display_name":"New York University","ror":"https://ror.org/0190ak572","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I57206974"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Timothy S. Hills","raw_affiliation_strings":["New York University"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"New York University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I57206974"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5018167077","display_name":"Taisuke Nakata","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6295-8757","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6295-8757"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1317239608","display_name":"Federal Reserve","ror":"https://ror.org/05fk5tr28","country_code":"US","type":"other","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1317239608"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2802905149","display_name":"Federal Reserve Board of Governors","ror":"https://ror.org/00v448643","country_code":"US","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1317239608","https://openalex.org/I2802905149"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Taisuke Nakata","raw_affiliation_strings":["Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6295-8757","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1317239608","https://openalex.org/I2802905149"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5049923191","display_name":"Sebastian Schmidt","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0006-6700-0437","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0006-6700-0437"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I153515283","display_name":"European Central Bank","ror":"https://ror.org/00ajckn66","country_code":"DE","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1320481043","https://openalex.org/I153515283"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sebastian Schmidt","raw_affiliation_strings":["European Central Bank"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0006-6700-0437","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"European Central Bank","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I153515283"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":4.2906,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":13,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.94682695,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":97},"biblio":{"volume":"2019","issue":"77","first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.9990000128746033,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.9990000128746033,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12137","display_name":"Economic theories and models","score":0.0006000000284984708,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11742","display_name":"Economic Theory and Policy","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/effective-lower-bound","display_name":"effective lower bound","score":0.984000027179718},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/tail-risk","display_name":"tail risk","score":0.7149999737739563},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/inflation-expectations","display_name":"inflation expectations","score":0.7440000176429749},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/inflation-targeting","display_name":"inflation targeting","score":0.6320000290870667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/natural-rate-of-interest","display_name":"natural rate of interest","score":0.6629999876022339},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/great-recession","display_name":"Great Recession","score":0.7400000095367432},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/monetary-policy","display_name":"monetary policy","score":0.6000000238418579},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/steady-state-inflation","display_name":"steady-state inflation","score":0.328000009059906}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.7616294026374817},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C200941418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q273508","display_name":"Inflation (cosmology)","level":2,"score":0.722355306148529},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C195742910","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q176494","display_name":"Recession","level":2,"score":0.6902474164962769},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C556758197","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q580018","display_name":"Monetary economics","level":1,"score":0.6651087403297424},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126285488","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q178476","display_name":"Monetary policy","level":2,"score":0.5752336382865906},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2992071073","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q154510","display_name":"Great recession","level":2,"score":0.47917094826698303},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77553402","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q13222579","display_name":"Upper and lower bounds","level":2,"score":0.4499465227127075},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154815372","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1140421","display_name":"Real interest rate","level":3,"score":0.4268772602081299},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2993702802","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q35865","display_name":"Inflation rate","level":3,"score":0.4180831015110016},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185824701","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1193759","display_name":"Inflation targeting","level":3,"score":0.41400039196014404},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.3225124478340149},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139719470","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39680","display_name":"Macroeconomics","level":1,"score":0.26870352029800415},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165556158","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q83937","display_name":"Keynesian economics","level":1,"score":0.20667552947998047},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.06293267011642456},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.06154817342758179},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33332235","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q18362","display_name":"Theoretical physics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134306372","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7754","display_name":"Mathematical analysis","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.17016/feds.2019.077","doi":"https://doi.org/10.17016/feds.2019.077","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.17016/feds.2019.077","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210212089","display_name":"Finance and Economics Discussion Series","issn_l":"1936-2854","issn":["1936-2854","2767-3898"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"public-domain","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/public-domain","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Finance and Economics Discussion Series","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.17016/feds.2019.077","doi":"https://doi.org/10.17016/feds.2019.077","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.17016/feds.2019.077","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210212089","display_name":"Finance and Economics Discussion Series","issn_l":"1936-2854","issn":["1936-2854","2767-3898"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"public-domain","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/public-domain","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Finance and Economics Discussion Series","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":63,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W397627134","https://openalex.org/W1480317529","https://openalex.org/W1480915473","https://openalex.org/W1493734964","https://openalex.org/W1525964042","https://openalex.org/W1564406252","https://openalex.org/W1578180415","https://openalex.org/W1826307119","https://openalex.org/W1975063543","https://openalex.org/W2007826575","https://openalex.org/W2056834170","https://openalex.org/W2079141744","https://openalex.org/W2093418366","https://openalex.org/W2096198430","https://openalex.org/W2100015211","https://openalex.org/W2102798401","https://openalex.org/W2103591784","https://openalex.org/W2104165247","https://openalex.org/W2107923926","https://openalex.org/W2136651935","https://openalex.org/W2136798818","https://openalex.org/W2146873931","https://openalex.org/W2154801578","https://openalex.org/W2156993613","https://openalex.org/W2160763275","https://openalex.org/W2187262782","https://openalex.org/W2194467784","https://openalex.org/W2216766328","https://openalex.org/W2272326785","https://openalex.org/W2283476100","https://openalex.org/W2314681954","https://openalex.org/W2533610003","https://openalex.org/W2625833932","https://openalex.org/W2763510222","https://openalex.org/W2782866127","https://openalex.org/W2890498949","https://openalex.org/W2902682292","https://openalex.org/W2905156138","https://openalex.org/W2906721377","https://openalex.org/W2908051527","https://openalex.org/W2945752813","https://openalex.org/W2965589955","https://openalex.org/W2969634111","https://openalex.org/W3034727719","https://openalex.org/W3110257319","https://openalex.org/W3121206565","https://openalex.org/W3121286023","https://openalex.org/W3121773797","https://openalex.org/W3122124077","https://openalex.org/W3122315261","https://openalex.org/W3122355376","https://openalex.org/W3122519499","https://openalex.org/W3122613467","https://openalex.org/W3123374514","https://openalex.org/W3123970111","https://openalex.org/W3124099783","https://openalex.org/W3124237670","https://openalex.org/W3125331647","https://openalex.org/W3125497144","https://openalex.org/W3125993486","https://openalex.org/W3147847592","https://openalex.org/W4288890862","https://openalex.org/W4296974713"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2283476100","https://openalex.org/W2549820171","https://openalex.org/W2980686675","https://openalex.org/W3022677895","https://openalex.org/W2155295035","https://openalex.org/W7095596932","https://openalex.org/W2592933360","https://openalex.org/W7112645037","https://openalex.org/W7096735315","https://openalex.org/W4318262052"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Even":[0],"when":[1],"the":[2,15,18,25,53,59,64,70,84,94,104,108,126],"policy":[3,19],"rate":[4,20,72],"is":[5],"currently":[6],"not":[7],"constrained":[8,23],"by":[9,30,63,76],"its":[10],"effective":[11],"lower":[12],"bound":[13],"(ELB),":[14],"possibility":[16],"that":[17,58,92],"will":[21],"become":[22],"in":[24,34,111],"future":[26,35,129],"lowers":[27],"today's":[28],"inflation":[29,36,67,95],"creating":[31],"tail":[32,60],"risk":[33,61],"and":[37,118],"thus":[38],"reducing":[39],"expected":[40],"inflation.":[41],"In":[42],"an":[43],"empirically":[44],"rich":[45],"model":[46,90],"calibrated":[47],"to":[48,68,120],"match":[49],"key":[50],"features":[51],"of":[52,73,125,128],"U.S.":[54],"economy,":[55],"we":[56],"find":[57],"induced":[62],"ELB":[65,130],"causes":[66],"undershoot":[69],"target":[71,96],"2":[74],"percent":[75],"as":[77,79],"much":[78],"50":[80],"basis":[81],"points":[82],"at":[83],"economy's":[85],"risky":[86],"steady":[87],"state.":[88],"Our":[89],"suggests":[91],"achieving":[93],"may":[97],"be":[98],"more":[99],"difficult":[100],"now":[101],"than":[102],"before":[103],"Great":[105],"Recession,":[106],"if":[107],"likely":[109],"decline":[110],"long-run":[112],"neutral":[113],"rates":[114],"has":[115],"led":[116],"households":[117],"firms":[119],"revise":[121],"up":[122],"their":[123],"estimate":[124],"frequency":[127],"events.":[131]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-11-03T10:50:19.383937","created_date":"2022-05-12T00:00:00"}