{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4237008809","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w20807","title":"Quantifying Confidence","display_name":"Quantifying Confidence","publication_year":2014,"publication_date":"2014-12-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4237008809","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w20807"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.3386/w20807","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w20807","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w20807","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2809516038","display_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4322614461"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["National Bureau of Economic Research"],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","raw_type":"report"},"volume":null,"type":"report","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5045847271","display_name":"George-Marios Angeletos","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9269-5094","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9269-5094"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1321305853","display_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","ror":"https://ror.org/04grmx538","country_code":"US","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1321305853"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I136199984","display_name":"Harvard University","ror":"https://ror.org/03vek6s52","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I136199984"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I184942183","display_name":"University of Oslo","ror":"https://ror.org/01xtthb56","country_code":"NO","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I184942183"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I202697423","display_name":"University of Zurich","ror":"https://ror.org/02crff812","country_code":"CH","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I202697423"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I63966007","display_name":"Massachusetts Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/042nb2s44","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I63966007"]}],"countries":["CH","NO","US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"George-Marios Angeletos","raw_affiliation_strings":["BU, Harvard, LSE, MIT, UCL, the University of Zurich, the University of Oslo, the Norwegian Business School, the Minneapolis FRB, the 2013 Hydra Workshop, CRETE 2013, the 2013 Bank of England","Department of Economics, E52-530 MIT 77 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02139 and","NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"BU, Harvard, LSE, MIT, UCL, the University of Zurich, the University of Oslo, the Norwegian Business School, the Minneapolis FRB, the 2013 Hydra Workshop, CRETE 2013, the 2013 Bank of England","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I136199984","https://openalex.org/I184942183","https://openalex.org/I202697423"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Economics, E52-530 MIT 77 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02139 and","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I63966007"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1321305853"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5113845776","display_name":"Fabrice Collard","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0002-0396-7623","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0002-0396-7623"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1321305853","display_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","ror":"https://ror.org/04grmx538","country_code":"US","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1321305853"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I63966007","display_name":"Massachusetts Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/042nb2s44","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I63966007"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Fabrice Collard","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Economics, E52-530 MIT 77 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02139 and","NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Economics, E52-530 MIT 77 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02139 and","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I63966007"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1321305853"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5068502837","display_name":"Harris Dellas","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I118564535","display_name":"University of Bern","ror":"https://ror.org/02k7v4d05","country_code":"CH","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I118564535"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1321305853","display_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","ror":"https://ror.org/04grmx538","country_code":"US","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1321305853"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I63966007","display_name":"Massachusetts Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/042nb2s44","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I63966007"]}],"countries":["CH","US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Harris Dellas","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Economics, E52-530 MIT 77 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02139 and","NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138","University of Bern Departement Volkswirtschaftslehre Schanzeneckstrasse 1 CH-3001 Bern, Switzerland"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Economics, E52-530 MIT 77 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02139 and","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I63966007"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1321305853"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Bern Departement Volkswirtschaftslehre Schanzeneckstrasse 1 CH-3001 Bern, Switzerland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I118564535"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":3,"institutions_distinct_count":6,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":26,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.9667999744415283,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.9667999744415283,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12137","display_name":"Economic theories and models","score":0.027000000700354576,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11742","display_name":"Economic Theory and Policy","score":0.0020000000949949026,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/higher-order-beliefs","display_name":"higher-order beliefs","score":0.8679999709129333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/macroeconomic-models","display_name":"macroeconomic models","score":0.6880000233650208},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/business-cycle-volatility","display_name":"business cycle volatility","score":0.8429999947547913},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/nominal-rigidities","display_name":"nominal rigidities","score":0.8019999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/structural-shocks","display_name":"structural shocks","score":0.5879999995231628},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/short-term-economic-outlook","display_name":"short-term economic outlook","score":0.6439999938011169}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44249647","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q208498","display_name":"Confidence interval","level":2,"score":0.3440210819244385},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.3026820421218872},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.2699008584022522}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.3386/w20807","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w20807","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w20807","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2809516038","display_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4322614461"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["National Bureau of Economic Research"],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","raw_type":"report"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":43,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W67530504","https://openalex.org/W1481005446","https://openalex.org/W1482241473","https://openalex.org/W1505491408","https://openalex.org/W1557161846","https://openalex.org/W1972190631","https://openalex.org/W2000894765","https://openalex.org/W2026591027","https://openalex.org/W2057989832","https://openalex.org/W2077009797","https://openalex.org/W2078179103","https://openalex.org/W2087096517","https://openalex.org/W2089853409","https://openalex.org/W2097119464","https://openalex.org/W2110358590","https://openalex.org/W2132122237","https://openalex.org/W2159606735","https://openalex.org/W2162094858","https://openalex.org/W2163065315","https://openalex.org/W2168446738","https://openalex.org/W2169220472","https://openalex.org/W2335117859","https://openalex.org/W2338397157","https://openalex.org/W2597500132","https://openalex.org/W2902579296","https://openalex.org/W3023554814","https://openalex.org/W3121185954","https://openalex.org/W3121293400","https://openalex.org/W3122003031","https://openalex.org/W3122065104","https://openalex.org/W3122454653","https://openalex.org/W3122627340","https://openalex.org/W3123284319","https://openalex.org/W3124041832","https://openalex.org/W3125812377","https://openalex.org/W3147991643","https://openalex.org/W3152223742","https://openalex.org/W4245635266","https://openalex.org/W4289734477","https://openalex.org/W4299615550","https://openalex.org/W4300996190","https://openalex.org/W4362575130","https://openalex.org/W4403215685"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4289734477","https://openalex.org/W3042461290","https://openalex.org/W3124854667","https://openalex.org/W3124145685","https://openalex.org/W3113015192","https://openalex.org/W7133317963","https://openalex.org/W2156239197","https://openalex.org/W2051103249","https://openalex.org/W2972774321","https://openalex.org/W146647095"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"We":[0],"develop":[1],"a":[2,19,63,75,95,101],"tractable":[3],"method":[4],"for":[5,74,87],"augmenting":[6],"macroeconomic":[7],"models":[8,84],"with":[9],"autonomous":[10],"variation":[11],"in":[12,43,82],"higher-order":[13],"beliefs.We":[14],"use":[15],"this":[16,60],"to":[17],"accommodate":[18],"certain":[20],"type":[21,96],"of":[22,24,35,66,69,78,97],"waves":[23],"optimism":[25],"and":[26,92],"pessimism":[27],"that":[28,59,85,99],"can":[29],"be":[30],"interpreted":[31],"as":[32],"the":[33,40,44,48,54,70,79],"product":[34],"frictional":[36],"coordination":[37],"and,":[38],"unlike":[39],"one":[41],"featured":[42],"news":[45],"literature,":[46],"regards":[47],"short-term":[49],"economic":[50],"outlook":[51],"rather":[52],"than":[53],"medium-to":[55],"long-run":[56],"prospects.We":[57],"show":[58],"enrichment":[61],"provides":[62],"parsimonious":[64],"explanation":[65],"salient":[67],"features":[68],"data;":[71],"it":[72,93],"accounts":[73],"significant":[76],"fraction":[77],"businesscycle":[80],"volatility":[81],"estimated":[83],"allow":[86],"various":[88],"competing":[89],"structural":[90],"shocks;":[91],"captures":[94],"fluctuations":[98],"have":[100],"Keynesian":[102],"flavor":[103],"but":[104],"do":[105],"not":[106],"rely":[107],"on":[108],"nominal":[109],"rigidities.":[110]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":5}],"updated_date":"2026-10-12T09:40:04.860316","created_date":"2022-05-12T00:00:00"}