{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4236324401","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2196/preprints.19320","title":"Analysing and comparing the COVID-19 data: The closed cases of Hubei and South Korea, the dark March in Europe, the beginning of the outbreak in South America (Preprint)","display_name":"Analysing and comparing the COVID-19 data: The closed cases of Hubei and South Korea, the dark March in Europe, the beginning of the outbreak in South America (Preprint)","publication_year":2020,"publication_date":"2020-04-16","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4236324401","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2196/preprints.19320"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.2196/preprints.19320","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2196/preprints.19320","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2196/preprints.19320","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.2196/preprints.19320","any_repository_has_fulltext":null},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5069819416","display_name":"Stefano De Leo","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6276-073X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6276-073X"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Stefano De Leo","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5004580779","display_name":"Gabriel G. Maia","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6253-3123","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6253-3123"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Gabriel Gulak Maia","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5000882363","display_name":"Leonardo Solidoro","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0001-9147-445X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0001-9147-445X"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Leonardo Solidoro","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11819","display_name":"Data-Driven Disease Surveillance","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10482","display_name":"Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2604","display_name":"Applied Mathematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/covid-19","display_name":"COVID-19 pandemic","score":0.9620000123977661},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/alpha-factor","display_name":"alpha-factor","score":0.5879999995231628},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/outbreak-forecasting","display_name":"outbreak forecasting","score":0.4359999895095825},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/hubei","display_name":"Hubei Province","score":0.7440000176429749},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/south-korea","display_name":"South Korea","score":0.9990000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/european-countries","display_name":"European countries","score":0.6480000019073486},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/italy","display_name":"Italy","score":0.7620000243186951},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/lombardy","display_name":"Lombardy","score":0.9700000286102295},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/south-america","display_name":"South America","score":0.890999972820282},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/pandemic-comparison","display_name":"pandemic comparison","score":0.36800000071525574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/protective-measures","display_name":"protective measures","score":0.6460000276565552},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/normal-distribution-fitting","display_name":"normal distribution fitting","score":0.5049999952316284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/linear-model-fitting","display_name":"linear model fitting","score":0.4970000088214874}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116675565","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3241045","display_name":"Outbreak","level":2,"score":0.6907945871353149},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.6495456099510193},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.554037868976593},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43169469","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q580922","display_name":"Preprint","level":2,"score":0.5449931621551514},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780030769","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4968575","display_name":"Plateau (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.5332804322242737},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3007834351","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q82069695","display_name":"Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)","level":5,"score":0.4578688144683838},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.4377990961074829},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778067643","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q166507","display_name":"Interval (graph theory)","level":2,"score":0.42462635040283203},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.35217154026031494},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.2809123992919922},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.2033558189868927},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159047783","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7215","display_name":"Virology","level":1,"score":0.17725235223770142},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114614502","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q76592","display_name":"Combinatorics","level":1,"score":0.16736310720443726},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.1296600103378296},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.1138027012348175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.0979454517364502},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.09256589412689209},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142724271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7208","display_name":"Pathology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134306372","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7754","display_name":"Mathematical analysis","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.2196/preprints.19320","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2196/preprints.19320","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2196/preprints.19320","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.2196/preprints.19320","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2196/preprints.19320","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2196/preprints.19320","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","display_name":"Good health and well-being","score":0.6240000128746033}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320307856","display_name":"World Health Organization","ror":"https://ror.org/01f80g185"}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":2,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W3008884284","https://openalex.org/W4240682706"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3015969558","https://openalex.org/W1987409368","https://openalex.org/W4210608133","https://openalex.org/W3031202572","https://openalex.org/W3042192095","https://openalex.org/W3012756270","https://openalex.org/W3111620913","https://openalex.org/W3103488744","https://openalex.org/W3007549682","https://openalex.org/W3200073501"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"BACKGROUND":[0],"The":[1,111,250,301,328,350],"present":[2],"work":[3],"is":[4],"a":[5,31,50,64,78,169,225],"statistical":[6],"analysis":[7,252,329],"of":[8,15,38,45,55,80,88,113,123,140,180,187,193,205,224,258,274,283,303,309,330,339,347,387],"the":[9,13,36,42,53,85,92,103,114,120,124,127,137,141,151,175,184,191,194,202,216,240,255,272,281,284,291,307,313,324,331,340,348,354,365,374,385,388],"COVID-19":[10,89,259],"pandemic.":[11],"As":[12],"number":[14,37,54,186,273],"cases":[16,358],"worldwide":[17],"overtakes":[18],"one":[19],"million,":[20],"data":[21,76,237,246,251],"reveals":[22],"closed":[23],"outbreaks":[24],"in":[25,35,41,52,154,265,276,316,368],"Hubei":[26],"and":[27,90,109,145,344,353,371,381],"South":[28,146],"Korea,":[29],"with":[30,219,295],"new":[32],"slight":[33],"increase":[34],"infected":[39],"people":[40,210],"latter.":[43],"Both":[44],"these":[46],"countries":[47,129,264],"have":[48,83,100,199,288],"reached":[49],"plateau":[51],"Total":[56],"Confirmed":[57],"Cases":[58],"per":[59],"Million":[60],"(TCCpM)":[61],"residents,":[62],"suggesting":[63],"trend":[65],"to":[66,118,135,164,168,183,231,319,363,372],"be":[67,361],"followed":[68],"by":[69,214,233,378],"other":[70],"affected":[71],"regions.":[72],"OBJECTIVE":[73],"Using":[74],"Hubei's":[75],"as":[77,208,244,271],"basis":[79],"analysis,":[81],"we":[82,161,198,228,287],"studied":[84],"spreading":[86,203,256,386],"rate":[87,204,257],"modelled":[91],"epidemic":[93,342],"center":[94,192,343],"for":[95,107,262,312],"10":[96],"European":[97,128],"countries.":[98],"We":[99],"also":[101],"given":[102],"final":[104],"TCCpM":[105,152,217,275,285],"curves":[106,153,218],"Italy":[108],"Lombardia.":[110],"introduction":[112],"$\\boldsymbol{\\alpha}$-factor":[115],"allows":[116,306,335],"us":[117],"analyse":[119],"different":[121],"stages":[122],"outbreak,":[125],"compare":[126,373],"amongst":[130],"each":[131,166,181,277,369],"other,":[132],"and,":[133],"finally,":[134],"confront":[136],"initial":[138],"phase":[139],"disease":[142],"between":[143],"Europe":[144],"America.":[147],"METHODS":[148],"By":[149,172],"dividing":[150],"multiple":[155],"sections":[156],"spanning":[157],"short":[158],"time":[159,196,222,296],"frames":[160],"were":[162,229],"able":[163,230],"fit":[165],"section":[167,182],"linear":[170],"model.":[171],"pairing":[173],"then":[174],"angular":[176],"coefficient":[177],"(":[178],"factor)":[179],"total":[185],"confirmed":[188,357],"infections":[189],"at":[190],"corresponding":[195],"interval,":[197],"analysed":[200],"how":[201,239],"Covid-19":[206],"changes":[207,270],"more":[209,245,320],"are":[211],"infected.":[212],"Also,":[213],"modelling":[215,282],"an":[220,336],"asymmetrical":[221],"integral":[223],"Normal":[226],"Distribution,":[227],"study,":[232],"fitting":[234,241,292,333],"progressively":[235],"larger":[236],"ensembles,":[238],"parameters":[242,293,311,334],"change":[243],"becomes":[247],"available.":[248],"RESULTS":[249],"shows":[253],"that":[254,290],"increases":[260],"similarly":[261],"all":[263],"its":[266],"early":[267,337],"stage,":[268],"but":[269],"country":[278,370],"grows.":[279],"Regarding":[280],"curves,":[286],"found":[289],"oscillate":[294],"before":[297],"reaching":[298],"constant":[299],"values.":[300],"estimation":[302],"such":[304],"values":[305],"determination":[308],"better":[310],"model,":[314],"which":[315],"turn":[317],"leads":[318],"trustworthy":[321],"forecasts":[322],"on":[323,384],"pandemic":[325,366],"development.":[326],"CONCLUSIONS":[327],"oscillating":[332],"prediction":[338],"TCC,":[341],"standard":[345],"deviation":[346],"outbreak.":[349],"alpha":[351],"factor":[352],"recovered":[355],"over":[356],"ratio":[359],"can":[360],"used":[362],"understand":[364],"development":[367],"protective":[375],"measures":[376],"taken":[377],"local":[379],"authorities":[380],"their":[382],"impact":[383],"disease.":[389],"INTERNATIONAL":[390],"REGISTERED":[391],"REPORT":[392],"RR2-doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.06.20055327":[393]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-10-28T10:33:24.094632","created_date":"2022-05-12T00:00:00"}
