{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4200533772","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0007123421000478","title":"Commodity Shocks and Incumbency Effects","display_name":"Commodity Shocks and Incumbency Effects","publication_year":2021,"publication_date":"2021-12-17","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4200533772","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0007123421000478"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1017/s0007123421000478","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0007123421000478","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0007123421000478","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S95691132","display_name":"British Journal of Political Science","issn_l":"0007-1234","issn":["0007-1234","1469-2112"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a-star","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","erih-plus","jufo-3","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311721","host_organization_name":"Cambridge University Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311721","https://openalex.org/P4310311702"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Cambridge University Press","University of Cambridge"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"British Journal of Political Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5038249218","display_name":"Lucas M. Novaes","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3998-875X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3998-875X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I52977244","display_name":"Insper","ror":"https://ror.org/02nmavx05","country_code":"BR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I52977244"]}],"countries":["BR"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Lucas M. Novaes","raw_affiliation_strings":["Insper Institute of Education and Research"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Insper Institute of Education and Research","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I52977244"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5041519379","display_name":"Luis Schiumerini","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1303-347X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1303-347X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I107639228","display_name":"University of Notre Dame","ror":"https://ror.org/00mkhxb43","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I107639228"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Luis Schiumerini","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Political Science, University of Notre Dame, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1303-347X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Political Science, University of Notre Dame, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I107639228"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5038249218","https://openalex.org/A5041519379"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I107639228","https://openalex.org/I52977244"],"apc_list":{"value":3255,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3255},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":4.0261,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":14,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.93586372,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"52","issue":"4","first_page":"1689","last_page":"1708"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10108","display_name":"Electoral Systems and Political Participation","score":0.9189000129699707,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10108","display_name":"Electoral Systems and Political Participation","score":0.9189000129699707,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11823","display_name":"Natural Resources and Economic Development","score":0.028200000524520874,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10777","display_name":"Politics and Society in Latin America","score":0.010499999858438969,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/incumbency-advantage","display_name":"incumbency advantage","score":0.828000009059906},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/agricultural-commodity-prices","display_name":"agricultural commodity prices","score":0.9269999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/local-elections","display_name":"local elections","score":0.7020000219345093},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/voter-evaluations","display_name":"voter evaluations","score":0.3019999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/local-economic-growth","display_name":"local economic growth","score":0.8130000233650208},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/rural-municipalities","display_name":"rural municipalities","score":0.6190000176429749},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/brazilian-municipalities","display_name":"Brazilian municipalities","score":0.5910000205039978},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/candidate-quality","display_name":"candidate quality","score":0.35199999809265137}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.7841826677322388},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779439359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q317088","display_name":"Commodity","level":2,"score":0.7384359836578369},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777673361","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5281228","display_name":"Disadvantage","level":2,"score":0.7369398474693298},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C66912227","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2138712","display_name":"Regression discontinuity design","level":2,"score":0.6438820362091064},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C98184364","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1780131","display_name":"Argument (complex analysis)","level":2,"score":0.533836305141449},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776035688","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1606558","display_name":"Affect (linguistics)","level":2,"score":0.5175275206565857},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2993018946","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q488732","display_name":"Price shock","level":2,"score":0.5061449408531189},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2775987171","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q192797","display_name":"Elite","level":3,"score":0.4912814497947693},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C556758197","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q580018","display_name":"Monetary economics","level":1,"score":0.43526166677474976},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C94625758","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7163","display_name":"Politics","level":2,"score":0.4160863161087036},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C34447519","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q179522","display_name":"Market economy","level":1,"score":0.18999043107032776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185592680","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2329","display_name":"Chemistry","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C55493867","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7094","display_name":"Biochemistry","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41895202","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8162","display_name":"Linguistics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142724271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7208","display_name":"Pathology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1017/s0007123421000478","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0007123421000478","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0007123421000478","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S95691132","display_name":"British Journal of Political Science","issn_l":"0007-1234","issn":["0007-1234","1469-2112"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a-star","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","erih-plus","jufo-3","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311721","host_organization_name":"Cambridge University Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311721","https://openalex.org/P4310311702"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Cambridge University Press","University of Cambridge"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"British Journal of Political Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:52:y:2022:i:4:p:1689-1708_11","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0007123421000478/type/journal_article","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.8046000003814697,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16","display_name":"Peace, justice, and strong institutions"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":52,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W48222220","https://openalex.org/W141060239","https://openalex.org/W157449371","https://openalex.org/W237324340","https://openalex.org/W1531142403","https://openalex.org/W1537287213","https://openalex.org/W1568967997","https://openalex.org/W1599146809","https://openalex.org/W1962095932","https://openalex.org/W1990889500","https://openalex.org/W2048898131","https://openalex.org/W2108895929","https://openalex.org/W2112994583","https://openalex.org/W2115020880","https://openalex.org/W2116913953","https://openalex.org/W2117089757","https://openalex.org/W2124298601","https://openalex.org/W2129928678","https://openalex.org/W2136733706","https://openalex.org/W2136771439","https://openalex.org/W2143006433","https://openalex.org/W2161217898","https://openalex.org/W2161788312","https://openalex.org/W2168060994","https://openalex.org/W2177717590","https://openalex.org/W2184241896","https://openalex.org/W2282237924","https://openalex.org/W2302627606","https://openalex.org/W2399145468","https://openalex.org/W2531121890","https://openalex.org/W2590043485","https://openalex.org/W2739451208","https://openalex.org/W2741012409","https://openalex.org/W2751918566","https://openalex.org/W2805334636","https://openalex.org/W2887857005","https://openalex.org/W2889746181","https://openalex.org/W2904445711","https://openalex.org/W2919385521","https://openalex.org/W2943305979","https://openalex.org/W2967738298","https://openalex.org/W2991387462","https://openalex.org/W3001971188","https://openalex.org/W3121188030","https://openalex.org/W3123568397","https://openalex.org/W3125891105","https://openalex.org/W3125902036","https://openalex.org/W4213382287","https://openalex.org/W4243664401","https://openalex.org/W4252537643","https://openalex.org/W4254598986","https://openalex.org/W4398614734"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4410421786","https://openalex.org/W2270297770","https://openalex.org/W4415773449","https://openalex.org/W7074646975","https://openalex.org/W1517878455","https://openalex.org/W3037012488","https://openalex.org/W7120768091","https://openalex.org/W7100805164","https://openalex.org/W2095589149","https://openalex.org/W4410420858"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"Why":[1],"do":[2,116],"incumbents":[3,38,55],"enjoy":[4],"an":[5],"electoral":[6,52],"advantage":[7],"in":[8,17,26,43,62,72,87,107,126,132],"some":[9],"political":[10],"settings":[11],"but":[12],"suffer":[13],"from":[14],"a":[15,21,66,76],"disadvantage":[16],"others?":[18],"We":[19,58],"propose":[20],"novel":[22],"explanation":[23],"linking":[24],"variation":[25,71],"incumbency":[27,104],"effects":[28],"with":[29,75],"exogenous":[30,68],"commodity":[31,44,73,114,145],"shocks.":[32],"While":[33],"voters":[34],"attempt":[35],"to":[36],"sanction":[37],"for":[39],"economic":[40,155],"performance,":[41],"changes":[42,125],"prices":[45,74],"affect":[46,147],"their":[47,103,151],"evaluations":[48,149],"and":[49],"condition":[50],"the":[51,88,95,127],"fortunes":[53],"of":[54,70,90,97,129],"vis-\u00e0-vis":[56],"challengers.":[57],"test":[59],"our":[60],"argument":[61],"Brazilian":[63],"municipalities,":[64],"combining":[65],"plausibly":[67],"measure":[69],"close":[77],"election":[78],"regression":[79],"discontinuity":[80],"design.":[81],"Our":[82],"results":[83],"show":[84],"that":[85,113,144],"increases":[86],"price":[89],"agricultural":[91],"commodities":[92],"greatly":[93],"enhance":[94],"prospects":[96],"incumbents,":[98],"while":[99],"negative":[100],"shocks":[101,115,146],"exacerbate":[102],"disadvantage,":[105],"especially":[106],"rural":[108],"municipalities.":[109],"Further":[110],"investigation":[111],"suggests":[112],"not":[117],"operate":[118],"via":[119],"voter":[120,133],"learning":[121],"about":[122],"candidate":[123],"quality,":[124],"pool":[128],"candidates,":[130],"shifts":[131],"preferences,":[134],"or":[135],"strategic":[136],"elite":[137],"investments.":[138],"Instead,":[139],"we":[140],"find":[141],"suggestive":[142],"evidence":[143],"voters'":[148],"through":[150],"effect":[152],"on":[153],"local":[154],"growth.":[156]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-13T13:42:25.865203","created_date":"2021-12-31T00:00:00"}