{"id":"https://openalex.org/W36123771","doi":null,"title":"How to Spot the Future","display_name":"How to Spot the Future","publication_year":2012,"publication_date":"2012-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W36123771","mag":"36123771"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"mag:36123771","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/articulo?codigo=3943110","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306534827","display_name":"Wired","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Wired","raw_type":null},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5017101467","display_name":"Thomas Eldon Goetz","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Thomas Eldon Goetz","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5017101467"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.8266,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":1,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.818298,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":93},"biblio":{"volume":"20","issue":"5","first_page":"152","last_page":"161"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14345","display_name":"Scientific Research and Philosophical Inquiry","score":0.7207000255584717,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1405","display_name":"Management of Technology and Innovation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14345","display_name":"Scientific Research and Philosophical Inquiry","score":0.7207000255584717,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1405","display_name":"Management of Technology and Innovation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13204","display_name":"Competitive and Knowledge Intelligence","score":0.08049999922513962,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1408","display_name":"Strategy and Management"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12659","display_name":"Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting","score":0.03959999978542328,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/future-forecasting","display_name":"future forecasting","score":0.5350000262260437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/foresight","display_name":"foresight","score":0.5210000276565552}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C64731932","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q371090","display_name":"Blind spot","level":2,"score":0.3513932526111603},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.27629733085632324},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.16205871105194092}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"mag:36123771","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/articulo?codigo=3943110","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306534827","display_name":"Wired","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Wired","raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":24,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1653524466","https://openalex.org/W1972763246","https://openalex.org/W1974200634","https://openalex.org/W1983214907","https://openalex.org/W2006744953","https://openalex.org/W2073569962","https://openalex.org/W2083596477","https://openalex.org/W2103219310","https://openalex.org/W2114053580","https://openalex.org/W2174797988","https://openalex.org/W2210882547","https://openalex.org/W2410027104","https://openalex.org/W2471702052","https://openalex.org/W2471812698","https://openalex.org/W2509295678","https://openalex.org/W2525209951","https://openalex.org/W2606684634","https://openalex.org/W2610481686","https://openalex.org/W2767195935","https://openalex.org/W2783060248","https://openalex.org/W2989847583","https://openalex.org/W3022509738","https://openalex.org/W4223600359","https://openalex.org/W4224299576"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2511256581","https://openalex.org/W3043962658","https://openalex.org/W249563434","https://openalex.org/W4245385033","https://openalex.org/W2050162717","https://openalex.org/W3083567357","https://openalex.org/W2018268371","https://openalex.org/W247778067","https://openalex.org/W1988810581","https://openalex.org/W4232190159"],"abstract_inverted_index":null,"counts_by_year":[{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-10-16T09:59:22.235173","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}