{"id":"https://openalex.org/W35037261","doi":null,"title":"The US Housing Bust and Soaring Oil Prices: What next for the world economy? CEPS Working Document No. 294/June 2008","display_name":"The US Housing Bust and Soaring Oil Prices: What next for the world economy? CEPS Working Document No. 294/June 2008","publication_year":2008,"publication_date":"2008-06-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W35037261","mag":"35037261"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:aei.pitt.edu:9318","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://aei.pitt.edu/9318/2/9318.pdf","pdf_url":"http://aei.pitt.edu/9318/2/9318.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401436","display_name":"Archive of European Integration (AEI) (University of Pittsburgh)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I170201317","host_organization_name":"University of Pittsburgh","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I170201317"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Working Paper"},"volume":null,"type":"report","is_traditional":false,"indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"http://aei.pitt.edu/9318/2/9318.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5070353003","display_name":"Daniel Gros","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2911-8235","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2911-8235"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Daniel Gros","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2911-8235","affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5080296797","display_name":"Cecilia Frale","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6973-1950","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6973-1950"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Cecilia Frale","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6973-1950","affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11059","display_name":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","score":0.3700999915599823,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11059","display_name":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","score":0.3700999915599823,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.30300000309944153,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10632","display_name":"Housing Market and Economics","score":0.21860000491142273,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/housing-bust","display_name":"housing bust","score":0.9160000085830688},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/housing-prices","display_name":"housing prices","score":0.8379999995231628},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/oil-prices","display_name":"oil prices","score":0.8989999890327454},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/output-gap","display_name":"output gap","score":0.8230000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/construction-investment","display_name":"construction investment","score":0.6159999966621399},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/us-economy","display_name":"United States economy","score":0.7409999966621399},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/european-economy","display_name":"European economy","score":0.8960000276565552},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economic-forecasting","display_name":"economic forecasting","score":0.4790000021457672},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/recession","display_name":"economic recession","score":0.32499998807907104},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/spain","display_name":"Spain","score":0.527999997138977},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/nordic-countries","display_name":"Nordic countries","score":0.48399999737739563},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/global-economy","display_name":"global economy","score":0.4309999942779541}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778929795","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17489160","display_name":"Bust","level":3,"score":0.7866404056549072},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C141441539","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1970908","display_name":"Boom","level":2,"score":0.6639841198921204},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.6354016065597534},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C27548731","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q88272","display_name":"Investment (military)","level":3,"score":0.535085141658783},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779079380","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q333495","display_name":"Falling (accident)","level":2,"score":0.48617738485336304},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C195742910","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q176494","display_name":"Recession","level":2,"score":0.48247602581977844},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136264566","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q159810","display_name":"Economy","level":1,"score":0.4663621187210083},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C110121322","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q865811","display_name":"Distribution (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.46178916096687317},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77265313","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q879844","display_name":"Rest (music)","level":2,"score":0.4258134365081787},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139719470","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39680","display_name":"Macroeconomics","level":1,"score":0.24282020330429077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.09401381015777588},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.08385613560676575},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C164705383","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10379","display_name":"Cardiology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C94625758","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7163","display_name":"Politics","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C87717796","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q146326","display_name":"Environmental engineering","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C99454951","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q932068","display_name":"Environmental health","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134306372","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7754","display_name":"Mathematical analysis","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:aei.pitt.edu:9318","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://aei.pitt.edu/9318/2/9318.pdf","pdf_url":"http://aei.pitt.edu/9318/2/9318.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401436","display_name":"Archive of European Integration (AEI) (University of Pittsburgh)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I170201317","host_organization_name":"University of Pittsburgh","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I170201317"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Working Paper"},{"id":"mag:35037261","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://aei.pitt.edu/9318/","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:aei.pitt.edu:9318","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://aei.pitt.edu/9318/2/9318.pdf","pdf_url":"http://aei.pitt.edu/9318/2/9318.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401436","display_name":"Archive of European Integration (AEI) (University of Pittsburgh)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I170201317","host_organization_name":"University of Pittsburgh","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I170201317"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Working Paper"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/8","score":0.48510000109672546,"display_name":"Decent work and economic growth"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W35037261.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W35037261.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":42,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1887624773","https://openalex.org/W1985868277","https://openalex.org/W1995843773","https://openalex.org/W2007991363","https://openalex.org/W2035484071","https://openalex.org/W2044551029","https://openalex.org/W2047274939","https://openalex.org/W2050696656","https://openalex.org/W2053062973","https://openalex.org/W2058512647","https://openalex.org/W2079563517","https://openalex.org/W2102277825","https://openalex.org/W2133585547","https://openalex.org/W2159675211","https://openalex.org/W2203960750","https://openalex.org/W2291140334","https://openalex.org/W2508170443","https://openalex.org/W2532167704","https://openalex.org/W2559588208","https://openalex.org/W2583172223","https://openalex.org/W2740430429","https://openalex.org/W2887296106","https://openalex.org/W2896056808","https://openalex.org/W2900569176","https://openalex.org/W2924850471","https://openalex.org/W2949550667","https://openalex.org/W2952198659","https://openalex.org/W2952275363","https://openalex.org/W2954902944","https://openalex.org/W2960885171","https://openalex.org/W2963756601","https://openalex.org/W2996021383","https://openalex.org/W3013601574","https://openalex.org/W3097145107","https://openalex.org/W3104537585","https://openalex.org/W3113867689","https://openalex.org/W3120356723","https://openalex.org/W3121328226","https://openalex.org/W3135615109","https://openalex.org/W3136918052","https://openalex.org/W3145969289","https://openalex.org/W6813094581"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2156352513","https://openalex.org/W7100014643","https://openalex.org/W4388230242","https://openalex.org/W3047322138","https://openalex.org/W7098409443","https://openalex.org/W4392104163","https://openalex.org/W3148003423","https://openalex.org/W1534428353","https://openalex.org/W7095590841","https://openalex.org/W4220806008"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0],"paper":[1],"estimates":[2],"the":[3,6,15,41,65,82,95,99,148,151,163,166,184,189,211,225,239],"impact":[4],"of":[5,61,81,98,103,122,130,150,213,227],"ongoing":[7],"housing":[8,53],"bust":[9],"and":[10,17,37,68,89,153],"oil":[11,186],"price":[12,25,187],"boom":[13],"on":[14],"US":[16,42,152,167],"European":[18,49,154,199],"economies.":[19],"It":[20],"finds":[21],"that":[22,92,162,174],"large":[23,48,215],"house":[24,175,230],"movements":[26],"(changes":[27],"in":[28,64,94,238],"construction":[29],"investment)":[30],"are":[31,77],"useful":[32],"to":[33,58,137,146,179,188,194,220,233],"predict":[34],"exceptionally":[35,157],"bad":[36,75,158],"good":[38,73],"times":[39,76],"for":[40,46,165,208],"economy,":[43],"but":[44],"not":[45,109],"most":[47,198],"countries.":[50,71],"In":[51],"Europe":[52],"market":[54],"developments":[55],"have":[56],"led":[57],"extreme":[59],"values":[60],"GDP,":[62],"mainly":[63],"UK,":[66],"Spain":[67],"some":[69],"Nordic":[70],"Exceptionally":[72],"or":[74],"defined":[78,117],"as":[79,118,235,237],"realisations":[80],"output":[83,140,216],"gap":[84,217],"(the":[85],"difference":[86],"between":[87],"actual":[88],"trend":[90],"GDP)":[91],"fall":[93,180,234],"%":[96,223],"tail":[97],"distribution.":[100],"Our":[101,142],"definition":[102],"a":[104,112,203,214],"\u2018bad":[105],"time\u2019":[106],"thus":[107],"does":[108],"necessarily":[110],"imply":[111],"recession,":[113],"which":[114],"is":[115,168],"officially":[116],"two":[119],"consecutive":[120],"quarters":[121],"falling":[123],"GDP":[124],"(and":[125],"employment).":[126],"A":[127],"prolonged":[128],"period":[129],"sub":[131],"par":[132],"growth":[133],"could":[134],"also":[135],"lead":[136],"an":[138],"equivalent":[139],"gap.":[141],"model":[143],"allows":[144],"us":[145],"estimate":[147],"probability":[149,164,193,212],"economies":[155],"experiencing":[156],"times.":[159],"We":[160],"find":[161,202],"over":[169,195,221],"50%":[170],"if":[171,229],"one":[172],"assumes":[173],"prices":[176,231],"will":[177,218],"continue":[178],"throughout":[181],"2008.":[182],"Adding":[183],"high":[185],"picture":[190],"increases":[191],"this":[192],"80%.":[196],"For":[197],"countries":[200],"we":[201],"much":[204,236],"lower":[205],"probability;":[206],"except":[207],"Spain,":[209],"where":[210],"rise":[219],"85":[222],"by":[224],"end":[226],"2008":[228],"were":[232],"US.":[240]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
