{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3206633747","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6522352","title":"Forecasting Confirmed Malaria Cases in Northwestern Province of Zambia: A Time Series Analysis Using 2014\u20132020 Routine Data","display_name":"Forecasting Confirmed Malaria Cases in Northwestern Province of Zambia: A Time Series Analysis Using 2014\u20132020 Routine Data","publication_year":2021,"publication_date":"2021-10-13","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3206633747","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6522352","mag":"3206633747"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1155/2021/6522352","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6522352","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6522352","pdf_url":"https://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/aph/2021/6522352.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210228992","display_name":"Advances in Public Health","issn_l":"2314-7784","issn":["2314-7784","2356-6868"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["doaj","jufo-1","poland-20","russia-white-list-3"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319869","host_organization_name":"Hindawi Publishing Corporation","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319869","https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Hindawi Publishing Corporation","Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Advances in Public Health","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/aph/2021/6522352.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5077444732","display_name":"Dhally M. Menda","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7789-1919","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7789-1919"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210166928","display_name":"Churches Health Assoication Of Zambia","ror":"https://ror.org/05s5km770","country_code":"ZM","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210166928"]}],"countries":["ZM"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Dhally M. Menda","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Health Programs, Churches Health Association of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7789-1919","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Health Programs, Churches Health Association of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210166928"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5074246364","display_name":"Mukumbuta Nawa","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2360-2752","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2360-2752"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4405260929","display_name":"Levy Mwanawasa Medical University","ror":"https://ror.org/04gd6vy83","country_code":"ZM","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4405260929"]}],"countries":["ZM"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mukumbuta Nawa","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Levy Mwanawasa Medical University, Lusaka, Zambia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Levy Mwanawasa Medical University, Lusaka, Zambia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4405260929"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5004260760","display_name":"Rosemary K. Zimba","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210166928","display_name":"Churches Health Assoication Of Zambia","ror":"https://ror.org/05s5km770","country_code":"ZM","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210166928"]}],"countries":["ZM"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Rosemary K. Zimba","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Health Programs, Churches Health Association of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Health Programs, Churches Health Association of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210166928"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5041786813","display_name":"Catherine M. Mulikita","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210166928","display_name":"Churches Health Assoication Of Zambia","ror":"https://ror.org/05s5km770","country_code":"ZM","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210166928"]}],"countries":["ZM"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Catherine M. Mulikita","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Health Programs, Churches Health Association of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Health Programs, Churches Health Association of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210166928"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5000560867","display_name":"Jim Mwandia","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0003-1633-2341","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0003-1633-2341"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210166928","display_name":"Churches Health Assoication Of Zambia","ror":"https://ror.org/05s5km770","country_code":"ZM","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210166928"]}],"countries":["ZM"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jim Mwandia","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Health Programs, Churches Health Association of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Health Programs, Churches Health Association of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210166928"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5065464362","display_name":"Henry Mwaba","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210166928","display_name":"Churches Health Assoication Of Zambia","ror":"https://ror.org/05s5km770","country_code":"ZM","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210166928"]}],"countries":["ZM"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Henry Mwaba","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Health Programs, Churches Health Association of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Health Programs, Churches Health Association of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210166928"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5061052437","display_name":"Karen Sichali Sichinga","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0004-1718-5432","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0004-1718-5432"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210166928","display_name":"Churches Health Assoication Of Zambia","ror":"https://ror.org/05s5km770","country_code":"ZM","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210166928"]}],"countries":["ZM"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Karen Sichinga","raw_affiliation_strings":["Churches Health Association of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Churches Health Association of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210166928"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5077444732"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210166928"],"apc_list":{"value":1000,"currency":"USD","value_usd":1000},"apc_paid":{"value":1000,"currency":"USD","value_usd":1000},"fwci":2.0546,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":23,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.85324043,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":96,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"2021","issue":null,"first_page":"1","last_page":"8"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10091","display_name":"Malaria Research and Control","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2739","display_name":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10091","display_name":"Malaria Research and Control","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2739","display_name":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10166","display_name":"Mosquito-borne diseases and control","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2739","display_name":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12402","display_name":"Travel-related health issues","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2739","display_name":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/malaria","display_name":"malaria","score":0.9300000071525574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/arima-model","display_name":"ARIMA model","score":0.5709999799728394},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/malaria-elimination","display_name":"malaria elimination","score":0.8600000143051147},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/district-health-information-system","display_name":"District Health Information System","score":0.7120000123977661}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778048844","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12156","display_name":"Malaria","level":2,"score":0.9308720231056213},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24338571","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2566298","display_name":"Autoregressive integrated moving average","level":3,"score":0.8874398469924927},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138816342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q189603","display_name":"Public health","level":2,"score":0.5435057282447815},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.5048633217811584},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.4868830740451813},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C99454951","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q932068","display_name":"Environmental health","level":1,"score":0.44693881273269653},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C82257358","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q895497","display_name":"Box\u2013Jenkins","level":4,"score":0.41962891817092896},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.3959254026412964},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C45355965","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1643441","display_name":"Socioeconomics","level":1,"score":0.3692842125892639},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.3412662148475647},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.2364683747291565},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.11912015080451965},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C203014093","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q101929","display_name":"Immunology","level":1,"score":0.10357174277305603},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159110408","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q121176","display_name":"Nursing","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1155/2021/6522352","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6522352","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6522352","pdf_url":"https://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/aph/2021/6522352.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210228992","display_name":"Advances in Public Health","issn_l":"2314-7784","issn":["2314-7784","2356-6868"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["doaj","jufo-1","poland-20","russia-white-list-3"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319869","host_organization_name":"Hindawi Publishing Corporation","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319869","https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Hindawi Publishing Corporation","Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Advances in Public Health","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:6aee9947272842eeb2d60820098fa515","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/6aee9947272842eeb2d60820098fa515","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Advances in Public Health, Vol 2021 (2021)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1155/2021/6522352","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6522352","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6522352","pdf_url":"https://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/aph/2021/6522352.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210228992","display_name":"Advances in Public Health","issn_l":"2314-7784","issn":["2314-7784","2356-6868"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["doaj","jufo-1","poland-20","russia-white-list-3"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319869","host_organization_name":"Hindawi Publishing Corporation","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319869","https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Hindawi Publishing Corporation","Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Advances in Public Health","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Good health and well-being","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","score":0.9391000270843506}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320307851","display_name":"Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria","ror":"https://ror.org/02gysew38"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320309475","display_name":"Northwestern University","ror":"https://ror.org/000e0be47"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3206633747.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3206633747.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":33,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1768920613","https://openalex.org/W1965771056","https://openalex.org/W2005115040","https://openalex.org/W2013668094","https://openalex.org/W2025695515","https://openalex.org/W2045544025","https://openalex.org/W2066078040","https://openalex.org/W2105978464","https://openalex.org/W2108107087","https://openalex.org/W2111001563","https://openalex.org/W2119523602","https://openalex.org/W2119863846","https://openalex.org/W2126217796","https://openalex.org/W2129782423","https://openalex.org/W2134252637","https://openalex.org/W2147110014","https://openalex.org/W2157822850","https://openalex.org/W2169147332","https://openalex.org/W2266475816","https://openalex.org/W2462010890","https://openalex.org/W2563955570","https://openalex.org/W2796772725","https://openalex.org/W2807597179","https://openalex.org/W2916289194","https://openalex.org/W2925992113","https://openalex.org/W2954593888","https://openalex.org/W3000149719","https://openalex.org/W3004382046","https://openalex.org/W3009521591","https://openalex.org/W3021277253","https://openalex.org/W3026293479","https://openalex.org/W3035946735","https://openalex.org/W3161129197"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7135070425","https://openalex.org/W2809846579","https://openalex.org/W2343238411","https://openalex.org/W4404147475","https://openalex.org/W2119523602","https://openalex.org/W7164946009","https://openalex.org/W4417276085","https://openalex.org/W2061095254","https://openalex.org/W7090923782","https://openalex.org/W7166878297"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Background.":[0],"Malaria":[1],"remains":[2],"a":[3,108,187],"significant":[4],"public":[5],"health":[6,40],"problem,":[7],"especially":[8],"in":[9,23,103,169,180,204],"resource-poor":[10],"settings.":[11],"We":[12],"aimed":[13],"to":[14,49,72,192,201,209],"forecast":[15,73],"the":[16,24,43,55,88,104,122,126,142,153,170,177,181,196,199],"year":[17,154,178],"2021":[18,179],"monthly":[19,35,74,109,133],"confirmed":[20,34,75,100,134,145,159,173],"malaria":[21,36,76,101,135,146,160,174,203],"cases":[22,37,77,102,136,147,161,175],"northwestern":[25,105,182],"province":[26,106],"of":[27,33,111,172],"Zambia.":[28],"Methods.":[29],"The":[30,130,157],"total":[31,143],"number":[32,171],"recorded":[38],"at":[39],"facilities":[41],"over":[42],"past":[44],"7-years":[45],"period":[46],"(January":[47],"2014":[48,94],"December":[50],"2020)":[51],"was":[52,70,84,121],"taken":[53],"from":[54],"District":[56],"Health":[57],"Information":[58],"System":[59],"version":[60,82],"2":[61],"(DHIS.2)":[62],"database.":[63],"Box\u2013Jenkins":[64],"autoregressive":[65],"integrated":[66],"moving":[67],"average":[68],"(ARIMA)":[69],"used":[71,85],"for":[78,86,152,176,189],"2021.":[79,155],"STATA":[80],"software":[81],"16":[83],"analyzing":[87],"time":[89],"series":[90],"data.":[91],"Results.":[92],"Between":[93],"and":[95,125,141,194],"2020,":[96],"there":[97,164,185],"were":[98,137,148],"3,795,541":[99],"with":[107],"mean":[110,132],"45,185":[112],"cases.":[113],"ARIMA":[114],"(2,":[115],"1,":[116,119],"2)":[117],"(0,":[118],"1)12":[120],"best":[123],"fit":[124],"most":[127],"parsimonious":[128],"model.":[129],"forecasted":[131,144,158],"60,284":[138],"(95%CI":[139,150],"30,969\u2013121,944),":[140],"723,413":[149],"371,626\u20131,463,322)":[151],"Conclusion.":[156],"suggest":[162],"that":[163],"will":[165],"be":[166,210],"an":[167],"increase":[168],"province.":[183],"Therefore,":[184],"is":[186,208],"need":[188],"concerted":[190],"efforts":[191],"prevent":[193],"eliminate":[195,202],"disease":[197],"if":[198],"goal":[200],"Zambia":[205],"by":[206],"2030":[207],"realized.":[211]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":4}],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2021-10-25T00:00:00"}
