{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3196288346","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500008597","title":"Forecasting forecaster accuracy: Contributions of past performance and individual differences","display_name":"Forecasting forecaster accuracy: Contributions of past performance and individual differences","publication_year":2021,"publication_date":"2021-03-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3196288346","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500008597","mag":"3196288346"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1017/s1930297500008597","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500008597","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500008597","pdf_url":"https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/914F973B8C6A9CDCD3F1EA7CF17048D2/S1930297500008597a.pdf/div-class-title-forecasting-forecaster-accuracy-contributions-of-past-performance-and-individual-differences-div.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S179575189","display_name":"Judgment and Decision Making","issn_l":"1930-2975","issn":["1930-2975"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-b","erih-plus","fnege-3","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311721","host_organization_name":"Cambridge University Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311721","https://openalex.org/P4310311702"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Cambridge University Press","University of Cambridge"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Judgment and Decision Making","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/914F973B8C6A9CDCD3F1EA7CF17048D2/S1930297500008597a.pdf/div-class-title-forecasting-forecaster-accuracy-contributions-of-past-performance-and-individual-differences-div.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5072313032","display_name":"Mark Himmelstein","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8681-0482","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8681-0482"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I164389053","display_name":"Fordham University","ror":"https://ror.org/03qnxaf80","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I164389053"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Mark Himmelstein","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Psychology, Fordham University"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8681-0482","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Psychology, Fordham University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I164389053"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5046014908","display_name":"Pavel Dimitrov Atanasov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9963-7225","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9963-7225"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Pavel Atanasov","raw_affiliation_strings":["Pytho LLC"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9963-7225","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Pytho LLC","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5063869991","display_name":"David V. Budescu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9613-0317","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9613-0317"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I164389053","display_name":"Fordham University","ror":"https://ror.org/03qnxaf80","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I164389053"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"David V. Budescu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Psychology, Fordham University"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9613-0317","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Psychology, Fordham University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I164389053"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5072313032"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I164389053"],"apc_list":{"value":3550,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3550},"apc_paid":{"value":3550,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3550},"fwci":2.7548,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":29,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.90489104,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":93,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"16","issue":"2","first_page":"323","last_page":"362"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9452999830245972,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9452999830245972,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.02410000003874302,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.0071000000461936,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecasting-skills","display_name":"forecasting skills","score":0.7929999828338623},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/past-performance","display_name":"past performance","score":0.8640000224113464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/individual-differences","display_name":"individual differences","score":0.8989999890327454},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/intelligence","display_name":"intelligence","score":0.8809999823570251},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/item-response-theory","display_name":"item response theory","score":0.722000002861023},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/classical-test-theory","display_name":"classical test theory","score":0.9679999947547913},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/wisdom-of-crowds","display_name":"wisdom of crowds","score":0.7839999794960022},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/out-of-sample-forecasting","display_name":"out-of-sample forecasting","score":0.699999988079071}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5958253741264343},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C170061395","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5468164","display_name":"Forecast skill","level":2,"score":0.5436136722564697},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C106934330","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1971873","display_name":"Trait","level":2,"score":0.5272323489189148},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C198531522","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q485146","display_name":"Sample (material)","level":2,"score":0.5122658610343933},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.49537527561187744},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.40697821974754333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.3397514522075653},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.24758246541023254},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.11079111695289612},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43617362","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q170050","display_name":"Chromatography","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185592680","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2329","display_name":"Chemistry","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199360897","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9143","display_name":"Programming language","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":5,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1017/s1930297500008597","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500008597","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500008597","pdf_url":"https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/914F973B8C6A9CDCD3F1EA7CF17048D2/S1930297500008597a.pdf/div-class-title-forecasting-forecaster-accuracy-contributions-of-past-performance-and-individual-differences-div.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S179575189","display_name":"Judgment and Decision Making","issn_l":"1930-2975","issn":["1930-2975"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-b","erih-plus","fnege-3","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311721","host_organization_name":"Cambridge University Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311721","https://openalex.org/P4310311702"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Cambridge University Press","University of Cambridge"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Judgment and Decision Making","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:cup:judgdm:v:16:y:2021:i:2:p:323-362_4","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1930297500008597/type/journal_article","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:jdm:journl:v:16:y:2021:i:2:p:323-362","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://journal.sjdm.org/20/200313b/jdm200313b.html","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:51652de5bae34bf4a0a9666853fb7187","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/51652de5bae34bf4a0a9666853fb7187","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Judgment and Decision Making, Vol 16, Iss 2, Pp 323-362 (2021)","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:8f3f09157bf64427b5db4b29dc0ae3dd","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/8f3f09157bf64427b5db4b29dc0ae3dd","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Judgment and Decision Making, Vol 16, Pp 323-362 (2021)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1017/s1930297500008597","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500008597","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500008597","pdf_url":"https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/914F973B8C6A9CDCD3F1EA7CF17048D2/S1930297500008597a.pdf/div-class-title-forecasting-forecaster-accuracy-contributions-of-past-performance-and-individual-differences-div.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S179575189","display_name":"Judgment and Decision Making","issn_l":"1930-2975","issn":["1930-2975"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-b","erih-plus","fnege-3","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311721","host_organization_name":"Cambridge University Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311721","https://openalex.org/P4310311702"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Cambridge University Press","University of Cambridge"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Judgment and Decision Making","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/study-designs/observational-study","display_name":"Observational Study"}],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G5066118652","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"2017-17071900005","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320333051","funder_display_name":"Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320312530","display_name":"Office of the Director of National Intelligence","ror":"https://ror.org/01v3fsc55"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320333051","display_name":"Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity","ror":"https://ror.org/01v3fsc55"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337349","display_name":"NIH Office of the Director","ror":"https://ror.org/00fj8a872"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3196288346.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3196288346.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":53,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1951724000","https://openalex.org/W1964052265","https://openalex.org/W1964085834","https://openalex.org/W1965828932","https://openalex.org/W1982343866","https://openalex.org/W1988488214","https://openalex.org/W2006942639","https://openalex.org/W2007423920","https://openalex.org/W2009415795","https://openalex.org/W2011746718","https://openalex.org/W2025720061","https://openalex.org/W2028076981","https://openalex.org/W2039065426","https://openalex.org/W2047634553","https://openalex.org/W2048921251","https://openalex.org/W2054321977","https://openalex.org/W2056418346","https://openalex.org/W2059894954","https://openalex.org/W2073241381","https://openalex.org/W2085175893","https://openalex.org/W2085900183","https://openalex.org/W2097137621","https://openalex.org/W2103703342","https://openalex.org/W2106279477","https://openalex.org/W2108920669","https://openalex.org/W2111202739","https://openalex.org/W2131472525","https://openalex.org/W2144753591","https://openalex.org/W2149618074","https://openalex.org/W2154028987","https://openalex.org/W2158515176","https://openalex.org/W2161080627","https://openalex.org/W2162452541","https://openalex.org/W2165949980","https://openalex.org/W2330163396","https://openalex.org/W2338897066","https://openalex.org/W2342281051","https://openalex.org/W2510801419","https://openalex.org/W2527361991","https://openalex.org/W2604390721","https://openalex.org/W2610342981","https://openalex.org/W2612340948","https://openalex.org/W2626685770","https://openalex.org/W2767112097","https://openalex.org/W2886489920","https://openalex.org/W2893743957","https://openalex.org/W2914742482","https://openalex.org/W2965169245","https://openalex.org/W2968475444","https://openalex.org/W2989682635","https://openalex.org/W3014457339","https://openalex.org/W3123031510","https://openalex.org/W4249332350"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4322757618","https://openalex.org/W4404471047","https://openalex.org/W2149618074","https://openalex.org/W7096183560","https://openalex.org/W7118710015","https://openalex.org/W7124748423","https://openalex.org/W4379164480","https://openalex.org/W4387865337","https://openalex.org/W3014457339","https://openalex.org/W4251734639"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"A":[1],"growing":[2],"body":[3],"of":[4,21,47,97,139,156,171,180],"research":[5],"indicates":[6,64],"that":[7],"forecasting":[8,51,84,113],"skill":[9,85,114],"is":[10,149],"a":[11,18,48],"unique":[12],"and":[13,77,186],"stable":[14],"trait:":[15],"forecasters":[16,35],"with":[17],"track":[19],"record":[20],"high":[22],"accuracy":[23],"tend":[24],"to":[25,62,101],"maintain":[26],"this":[27,39],"record.":[28],"But":[29],"how":[30],"does":[31],"one":[32],"identify":[33],"skilled":[34],"effectively?":[36],"We":[37],"address":[38],"question":[40,102],"using":[41,70],"data":[42,126],"collected":[43],"during":[44,131],"two":[45],"seasons":[46],"longitudinal":[49],"geopolitical":[50],"tournament.":[52],"Our":[53,104],"first":[54],"analysis,":[55],"which":[56],"compares":[57],"psychometric":[58,151],"traits":[59,152],"assessed":[60],"prior":[61],"forecasting,":[63],"intelligence":[65],"consistently":[66],"predicts":[67],"accuracy.":[68,173],"Next,":[69],"methods":[71,108,117],"adapted":[72],"from":[73],"classical":[74],"test":[75],"theory":[76],"item":[78],"response":[79],"theory,":[80],"we":[81,134,175],"model":[82],"latent":[83],"based":[86],"on":[87,183],"the":[88,95,125,132,136,168,177],"forecasters\u2019":[89],"past":[90,146,165],"accuracy,":[91],"while":[92],"accounting":[93],"for":[94,193],"timing":[96],"their":[98,187],"forecasts":[99],"relative":[100,137],"resolution.":[103],"results":[105,182],"suggest":[106],"these":[107,181],"perform":[109],"better":[110],"at":[111,127],"assessing":[112],"than":[115],"simpler":[116],"employed":[118],"by":[119],"many":[120],"previous":[121],"studies.":[122],"By":[123],"parsing":[124],"different":[128],"time":[129],"points":[130],"competitions,":[133],"assess":[135],"importance":[138],"each":[140],"information":[141,148,162],"source":[142],"over":[143],"time.":[144],"When":[145],"performance":[147,166,191],"limited,":[150],"are":[153],"useful":[154],"predictors":[155],"future":[157,172],"performance,":[158],"but,":[159],"as":[160],"more":[161],"becomes":[163,167],"available,":[164],"stronger":[169],"predictor":[170],"Finally,":[174],"demonstrate":[176],"predictive":[178],"validity":[179],"out-of-sample":[184],"data,":[185],"utility":[188],"in":[189],"producing":[190],"weights":[192],"wisdom-of-crowds":[194],"aggregations.":[195]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2021-08-30T00:00:00"}
