{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3183873151","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2021.1934476","title":"Integration of Internet search data to predict tourism trends using spatial-temporal XGBoost composite model","display_name":"Integration of Internet search data to predict tourism trends using spatial-temporal XGBoost composite model","publication_year":2021,"publication_date":"2021-07-05","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3183873151","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2021.1934476","mag":"3183873151"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1080/13658816.2021.1934476","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2021.1934476","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2021.1934476","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210181446","display_name":"International Journal of Geographical Information Systems","issn_l":"0269-3798","issn":["0269-3798","1362-3087"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["dongbi-b","poland-100"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547","https://openalex.org/P4310320449"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis","Informa"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Geographical Information Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5022748364","display_name":"Junfeng Kang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9887-4632","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9887-4632"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I140172145","display_name":"University of Connecticut","ror":"https://ror.org/02der9h97","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I140172145"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4510145","display_name":"Jiangxi University of Science and Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/03q0t9252","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4510145"]}],"countries":["CN","US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Junfeng Kang","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Geography, University of Connecticut, Connecticut, USA","School of Civil and Surveying & Mapping Engineering, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou, China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9887-4632","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Geography, University of Connecticut, Connecticut, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I140172145"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Civil and Surveying & Mapping Engineering, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4510145"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5060844183","display_name":"Xingyu Guo","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4710-3659","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4710-3659"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4510145","display_name":"Jiangxi University of Science and Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/03q0t9252","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4510145"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I927504317","display_name":"Nanchang Hangkong University","ror":"https://ror.org/0369pvp92","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I927504317"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Xingyu Guo","raw_affiliation_strings":["Library, Nanchang Hangkong University, Nanchang, China","School of Civil and Surveying & Mapping Engineering, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou, China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4710-3659","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Library, Nanchang Hangkong University, Nanchang, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I927504317"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Civil and Surveying & Mapping Engineering, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4510145"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5071698217","display_name":"Lei Fang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8902-1817","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8902-1817"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I24943067","display_name":"Fudan University","ror":"https://ror.org/013q1eq08","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I24943067"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Lei Fang","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai, China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8902-1817","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I24943067"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5108701898","display_name":"Xiangrong Wang","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I24943067","display_name":"Fudan University","ror":"https://ror.org/013q1eq08","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I24943067"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Xiangrong Wang","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I24943067"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5046545909","display_name":"Zhengqiu Fan","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2908-811X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2908-811X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I24943067","display_name":"Fudan University","ror":"https://ror.org/013q1eq08","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I24943067"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zhengqiu Fan","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I24943067"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5071698217"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I24943067"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":2.6279,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":31,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.89904933,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":96,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"36","issue":"2","first_page":"236","last_page":"252"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.6484000086784363,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.6484000086784363,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10055","display_name":"Diverse Aspects of Tourism Research","score":0.1371999979019165,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1409","display_name":"Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11980","display_name":"Human Mobility and Location-Based Analysis","score":0.07129999995231628,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3313","display_name":"Transportation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/web-search-data","display_name":"internet search data","score":0.9860000014305115},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/baidu-index","display_name":"Baidu Index","score":0.9430000185966492},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/spatial-autocorrelation","display_name":"spatial autocorrelation","score":0.8600000143051147},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/spatial-heterogeneity","display_name":"spatial heterogeneity","score":0.906000018119812},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/spatial-clustering","display_name":"spatial clustering","score":0.6359999775886536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/weighted-moving-average","display_name":"weighted moving average","score":0.847000002861023},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/lagged-effects","display_name":"lagged effects","score":0.5519999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/beijing-tourism","display_name":"Beijing tourism","score":0.7239999771118164}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18918823","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q49389","display_name":"Tourism","level":2,"score":0.6775052547454834},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C110875604","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q75","display_name":"The Internet","level":2,"score":0.6201000809669495},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.5100646615028381},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2522767166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2374463","display_name":"Data science","level":1,"score":0.4818081259727478},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.4392697513103485},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C58640448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q42515","display_name":"Cartography","level":1,"score":0.4325825273990631},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.41813552379608154},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C148383697","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1781695","display_name":"Regional science","level":1,"score":0.37684863805770874},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136764020","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q466","display_name":"World Wide Web","level":1,"score":0.3416082262992859},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C23123220","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q816826","display_name":"Information retrieval","level":1,"score":0.32056868076324463},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1080/13658816.2021.1934476","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2021.1934476","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2021.1934476","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210181446","display_name":"International Journal of Geographical Information Systems","issn_l":"0269-3798","issn":["0269-3798","1362-3087"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["dongbi-b","poland-100"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547","https://openalex.org/P4310320449"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis","Informa"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Geographical Information Science","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/11","display_name":"Sustainable cities and communities","score":0.5142999887466431}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G5746364853","display_name":"\u73af\u5883\u56e0\u5b50\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0b\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u8f68\u9053\u4ea4\u901a\u7ad9\u70b9\u5468\u8fb9\u6162\u884c\u4ea4\u901a\u4e8b\u6545\u53d1\u751f\u673a\u5236\u4e0e\u9884\u6d4b\u2014\u2014\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6d77\u4e3a\u4f8b","funder_award_id":"41701462","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","funder_display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8474396823","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"No. 41301423","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","funder_display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G90744941","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"No. 2018M641926","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321543","funder_display_name":"China Postdoctoral Science Foundation"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","ror":"https://ror.org/01h0zpd94"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321543","display_name":"China Postdoctoral Science Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/0426zh255"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":41,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W766443707","https://openalex.org/W1491394602","https://openalex.org/W1971794754","https://openalex.org/W1973749534","https://openalex.org/W1992347171","https://openalex.org/W2006746888","https://openalex.org/W2007066203","https://openalex.org/W2010134746","https://openalex.org/W2012471518","https://openalex.org/W2016500599","https://openalex.org/W2030606122","https://openalex.org/W2034636363","https://openalex.org/W2038642139","https://openalex.org/W2067284569","https://openalex.org/W2070036769","https://openalex.org/W2083106364","https://openalex.org/W2086074129","https://openalex.org/W2086700681","https://openalex.org/W2092553756","https://openalex.org/W2098584872","https://openalex.org/W2131586477","https://openalex.org/W2144326231","https://openalex.org/W2154291363","https://openalex.org/W2178225550","https://openalex.org/W2295598076","https://openalex.org/W2324562510","https://openalex.org/W2400682180","https://openalex.org/W2464243336","https://openalex.org/W2586297576","https://openalex.org/W2590038026","https://openalex.org/W2591744545","https://openalex.org/W2610700150","https://openalex.org/W2784208206","https://openalex.org/W2792986592","https://openalex.org/W2884741544","https://openalex.org/W2940246297","https://openalex.org/W2982339828","https://openalex.org/W2995261589","https://openalex.org/W2997546860","https://openalex.org/W3047836639","https://openalex.org/W4234681626"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2884741544","https://openalex.org/W3087708055","https://openalex.org/W3205735187","https://openalex.org/W3026455504","https://openalex.org/W2024158228","https://openalex.org/W4403534816","https://openalex.org/W7134923432","https://openalex.org/W2220307330","https://openalex.org/W2186491895","https://openalex.org/W4366979818"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Tourism":[0],"trend":[1],"prediction":[2,13,174],"facilitates":[3],"estimation":[4],"of":[5,132],"tourism":[6,12,26,44,110,127],"investment":[7],"and":[8,20,28,42,83,113,147,157,196],"revenue.":[9],"Studies":[10],"on":[11,17,51],"have":[14],"primarily":[15],"relied":[16],"linear":[18],"models":[19],"historical":[21],"visitors;":[22],"however,":[23],"relationships":[24],"between":[25,109],"trends":[27,45],"their":[29],"factors":[30,37],"may":[31,184],"be":[32],"nonlinear.":[33],"This":[34],"study":[35,59],"constructed":[36],"from":[38,163],"internet":[39,111],"search":[40,71,112],"data":[41,64],"predicted":[43],"using":[46,98],"a":[47],"spatiotemporal":[48,120,149,167],"framework":[49],"based":[50],"the":[52,70,99,106,118,133,137,143,148,166,172],"extreme":[53],"gradient":[54],"boosting":[55],"(XGBoost)":[56],"method.":[57],"The":[58,73,93,129,176],"first":[60],"sorted":[61],"Baidu":[62],"index":[63],"that":[65,180],"is":[66],"computed":[67],"by":[68],"weighting":[69],"frequency.":[72],"spatial":[74,81,144,190,194,197],"cluster":[75],"analysis":[76,86],"was":[77,87],"conducted":[78],"to":[79,90,104,124,161],"incorporate":[80],"characteristics,":[82],"principal":[84],"component":[85],"further":[88],"performed":[89],"identify":[91],"factors.":[92],"next":[94],"step":[95],"derived":[96],"variables":[97],"weighted":[100],"moving":[101,140],"average":[102,141],"method":[103],"reduce":[105],"lag":[107],"effect":[108],"actual":[114],"behavior.":[115],"We":[116],"applied":[117],"proposed":[119],"XGBoost":[121,135,145,150,168],"composite":[122,151,169],"model":[123,152,170],"predict":[125],"Beijing\u2019s":[126],"trends.":[128],"R2":[130],"scores":[131],"simple":[134],"model,":[136,142,146],"autoregressive":[138],"integrated":[139],"were":[153],"0.517,":[154],"0.625,":[155],"0.791,":[156],"0.940,":[158],"respectively.":[159],"Compared":[160],"predictions":[162],"different":[164],"models,":[165],"has":[171],"best":[173],"ability.":[175],"findings":[177],"also":[178],"suggest":[179],"machine":[181],"learning":[182],"methods":[183],"not":[185],"perform":[186],"well":[187],"without":[188],"considering":[189],"properties,":[191],"such":[192],"as":[193],"autocorrelation":[195],"heterogeneity.":[198]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":4}],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2021-08-02T00:00:00"}