{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3172592264","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1093/imammb/dqab008","title":"Data assimilation of synthetic data as a novel strategy for predicting disease progression in alopecia areata","display_name":"Data assimilation of synthetic data as a novel strategy for predicting disease progression in alopecia areata","publication_year":2021,"publication_date":"2021-06-08","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3172592264","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1093/imammb/dqab008","mag":"3172592264","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34109398"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1093/imammb/dqab008","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1093/imammb/dqab008","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1093/imammb/dqab008","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210193328","display_name":"Mathematical Medicine and Biology A Journal of the IMA","issn_l":"1477-8599","issn":["1477-8599","1477-8602"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-c","jufo-1","medline","norway-1","poland-40","russia-white-list-1"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311648","host_organization_name":"Oxford University Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311648","https://openalex.org/P4310311647"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Oxford University Press","University of Oxford"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Mathematical Medicine and Biology: A Journal of the IMA","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5109506090","display_name":"NG Cogan","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I103163165","display_name":"Florida State University","ror":"https://ror.org/05g3dte14","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I103163165"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"NG Cogan","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Mathematics, Florida State University, 208 Love Building, Tallahassee, Fl 32306"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mathematics, Florida State University, 208 Love Building, Tallahassee, Fl 32306","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I103163165"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5051038295","display_name":"Feng Bao","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1302-8120","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1302-8120"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I103163165","display_name":"Florida State University","ror":"https://ror.org/05g3dte14","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I103163165"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Feng Bao","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Mathematics, Florida State University, 208 Love Building, Tallahassee, Fl 32306"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mathematics, Florida State University, 208 Love Building, Tallahassee, Fl 32306","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I103163165"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5082322510","display_name":"Ralf Paus","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3492-9358","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3492-9358"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I145608581","display_name":"University of Miami","ror":"https://ror.org/02dgjyy92","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I145608581"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I28407311","display_name":"University of Manchester","ror":"https://ror.org/027m9bs27","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I28407311"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210159460","display_name":"NIHR Manchester Biomedical Research Centre","ror":"https://ror.org/05njkjr15","country_code":"GB","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I34931013","https://openalex.org/I4210159460"]}],"countries":["GB","US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ralf Paus","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Dermatology and Cutaneous Surgery, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, FL, USA, Centre for Dermatology Research, University of Manchester, and NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, Manchester, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Dermatology and Cutaneous Surgery, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, FL, USA, Centre for Dermatology Research, University of Manchester, and NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, Manchester, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I145608581","https://openalex.org/I28407311","https://openalex.org/I4210159460"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5067060040","display_name":"A Dobr\u00e9va","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4686-7430","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4686-7430"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I137902535","display_name":"North Carolina State University","ror":"https://ror.org/04tj63d06","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I137902535"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I55732556","display_name":"Arizona State University","ror":"https://ror.org/03efmqc40","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I55732556"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Atanaska Dobreva","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Mathematical and Natural Sciences, Arizona State University - West Campus, Glendale, AZ 85306, USA, and Department of Mathematics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Mathematical and Natural Sciences, Arizona State University - West Campus, Glendale, AZ 85306, USA, and Department of Mathematics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I137902535","https://openalex.org/I55732556"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":6,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5109506090"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I103163165"],"apc_list":{"value":2422,"currency":"GBP","value_usd":3634},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":2.1953,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":13,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.86956105,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"38","issue":"3","first_page":"314","last_page":"332"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11167","display_name":"Hair Growth and Disorders","score":0.6240000128746033,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2748","display_name":"Urology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11167","display_name":"Hair Growth and Disorders","score":0.6240000128746033,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2748","display_name":"Urology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10482","display_name":"Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models","score":0.09510000050067902,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2739","display_name":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10466","display_name":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","score":0.04690000042319298,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/alopecia-areata","display_name":"alopecia areata","score":0.9950000047683716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-data-assimilation","display_name":"Bayesian data assimilation","score":0.8479999899864197},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/disease-progression-prediction","display_name":"disease progression prediction","score":0.8650000095367432},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/parameter-estimation","display_name":"parameter estimation","score":0.6710000038146973},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/synthetic-health-data","display_name":"synthetic health data","score":0.6039999723434448},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sparse-observations","display_name":"sparse observations","score":0.6859999895095825},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/noisy-measurements","display_name":"noisy measurements","score":0.8029999732971191},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/parameter-sensitivity","display_name":"parameter sensitivity","score":0.8600000143051147},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/personalized-treatment","display_name":"personalized treatment","score":0.8069999814033508}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777524370","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5075435","display_name":"Alopecia areata","level":2,"score":0.6879844665527344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.5602489113807678},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24552861","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2670177","display_name":"Data assimilation","level":2,"score":0.5396992564201355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.4920901656150818},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C23131810","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q818574","display_name":"Observational study","level":2,"score":0.42484188079833984},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.35723572969436646},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.35666215419769287},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11413529","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8366","display_name":"Algorithm","level":1,"score":0.3384334444999695},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.2625961899757385},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.24161973595619202},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.21570047736167908},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C16005928","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q171171","display_name":"Dermatology","level":1,"score":0.1397418975830078},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D000506","descriptor_name":"Alopecia Areata","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000506","descriptor_name":"Alopecia Areata","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000506","descriptor_name":"Alopecia Areata","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D001327","descriptor_name":"Autoimmune Diseases","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D001327","descriptor_name":"Autoimmune Diseases","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D001327","descriptor_name":"Autoimmune Diseases","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D001499","descriptor_name":"Bayes Theorem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D001499","descriptor_name":"Bayes Theorem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D001499","descriptor_name":"Bayes Theorem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D018450","descriptor_name":"Disease Progression","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D018450","descriptor_name":"Disease Progression","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D018450","descriptor_name":"Disease Progression","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false}],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1093/imammb/dqab008","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1093/imammb/dqab008","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1093/imammb/dqab008","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210193328","display_name":"Mathematical Medicine and Biology A Journal of the IMA","issn_l":"1477-8599","issn":["1477-8599","1477-8602"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-c","jufo-1","medline","norway-1","poland-40","russia-white-list-1"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311648","host_organization_name":"Oxford University Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311648","https://openalex.org/P4310311647"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Oxford University Press","University of Oxford"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Mathematical Medicine and Biology: A Journal of the IMA","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:34109398","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34109398","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Mathematical medicine and biology : a journal of the IMA","raw_type":"Journal Article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.4000000059604645,"display_name":"Good health and well-being","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3"}],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"score":0.7599999904632568,"display_name":"Good health and well-being","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320319990","display_name":"National Institute for Health and Care Research","ror":"https://ror.org/0187kwz08"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320333687","display_name":"Manchester Biomedical Research Centre","ror":"https://ror.org/05njkjr15"}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":40,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W577930631","https://openalex.org/W1501586228","https://openalex.org/W1522319528","https://openalex.org/W1564288260","https://openalex.org/W1927369601","https://openalex.org/W1965723351","https://openalex.org/W1965924746","https://openalex.org/W2006718988","https://openalex.org/W2007046555","https://openalex.org/W2014888532","https://openalex.org/W2041980962","https://openalex.org/W2098613108","https://openalex.org/W2104804806","https://openalex.org/W2131598171","https://openalex.org/W2134255235","https://openalex.org/W2138626150","https://openalex.org/W2158987262","https://openalex.org/W2167650860","https://openalex.org/W2234279119","https://openalex.org/W2748796244","https://openalex.org/W2767264103","https://openalex.org/W2767923804","https://openalex.org/W2768729488","https://openalex.org/W2773006631","https://openalex.org/W2883250479","https://openalex.org/W2890735266","https://openalex.org/W2891480552","https://openalex.org/W2914096765","https://openalex.org/W2921241202","https://openalex.org/W2964546405","https://openalex.org/W3008768481","https://openalex.org/W3033562173","https://openalex.org/W3098252040","https://openalex.org/W4211012025","https://openalex.org/W4245220598","https://openalex.org/W4285719527","https://openalex.org/W6674763107","https://openalex.org/W6677662848","https://openalex.org/W6725697330","https://openalex.org/W6747151232"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2961085424","https://openalex.org/W4306674287","https://openalex.org/W4224009465","https://openalex.org/W4286629047","https://openalex.org/W4306321456","https://openalex.org/W4285260836","https://openalex.org/W3046775127","https://openalex.org/W3170094116","https://openalex.org/W4205958290","https://openalex.org/W3107474891"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0],"goal":[1],"of":[2,5,87,100,141],"patient-specific":[3],"treatment":[4],"diseases":[6],"requires":[7],"a":[8,73,85],"connection":[9],"between":[10],"clinical":[11,108],"observations":[12],"with":[13,118,132,168],"models":[14,27],"that":[15,41,93,112,145,162],"are":[16,28,42,81],"able":[17],"to":[18,34,50,84,120],"accurately":[19],"predict":[20],"the":[21,61,66,79,88],"disease":[22,90],"progression.":[23],"Even":[24],"when":[25,60],"realistic":[26],"available,":[29],"it":[30],"is":[31,94,115],"very":[32],"difficult":[33],"parameterize":[35],"them":[36],"and":[37,138,155,178],"often":[38],"parameter":[39,123],"estimates":[40],"made":[43],"using":[44],"early":[45],"time":[46],"course":[47],"data":[48,75,80,105,164],"prove":[49],"be":[51],"highly":[52],"inaccurate.":[53],"Inaccuracies":[54],"can":[55],"cause":[56],"different":[57,133],"predictions,":[58],"especially":[59],"progression":[62],"depends":[63],"sensitively":[64],"on":[65],"parameters.":[67],"In":[68],"this":[69,146],"study,":[70],"we":[71,110,126,160],"apply":[72],"Bayesian":[74],"assimilation":[76],"method,":[77],"where":[78],"incorporated":[82],"sequentially,":[83],"model":[86],"autoimmune":[89],"alopecia":[91],"areata":[92],"characterized":[95],"by":[96],"distinct":[97],"spatial":[98],"patterns":[99],"hair":[101],"loss.":[102],"Using":[103],"synthetic":[104],"as":[106],"simulated":[107],"observations,":[109,152],"show":[111],"our":[113,163,169],"method":[114,147],"relatively":[116],"robust":[117],"respect":[119],"variations":[121],"in":[122,166],"estimates.":[124],"Moreover,":[125],"compare":[127],"convergence":[128],"rates":[129],"for":[130,150,175],"parameters":[131,154],"sensitivities,":[134],"varying":[135,139],"observational":[136],"times":[137],"levels":[140],"noise.":[142],"We":[143],"find":[144,161],"works":[148],"better":[149],"sparse":[151],"sensitive":[153],"noisy":[156],"observations.":[157],"Taken":[158],"together,":[159],"assimilation,":[165],"conjunction":[167],"biologically":[170],"inspired":[171],"model,":[172],"provides":[173],"directions":[174],"individualized":[176],"diagnosis":[177],"treatments.":[179]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-10-12T09:40:04.860316","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}