{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3125690486","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09668130120060224","title":"Economists, Soviet Growth Slowdown and the Collapse","display_name":"Economists, Soviet Growth Slowdown and the Collapse","publication_year":2001,"publication_date":"2001-07-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3125690486","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09668130120060224","mag":"3125690486"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1080/09668130120060224","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09668130120060224","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09668130120060224","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S115434995","display_name":"Europe Asia Studies","issn_l":"0966-8136","issn":["0966-8136","1465-3427"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","fnege-4","jufo-3","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319847","host_organization_name":"Routledge","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319847","https://openalex.org/P4310320547"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Routledge","Taylor & Francis"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Europe-Asia Studies","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.190293","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Vladimir Kontorovich","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Vladimir Kontorovich","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":35.2424,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":49,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.9945733,"is_in_top_1_percent":true,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"53","issue":"5","first_page":"675","last_page":"695"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13186","display_name":"Russia and Soviet political economy","score":0.9854000210762024,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13186","display_name":"Russia and Soviet political economy","score":0.9854000210762024,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14433","display_name":"Post-Communist Economic and Political Transition","score":0.0032999999821186066,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10393","display_name":"Economic Growth and Productivity","score":0.0026000000070780516,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/soviet-economic-growth","display_name":"Soviet economic growth","score":0.9129999876022339},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economic-forecasting","display_name":"economic forecasting","score":0.6919999718666077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/growth-deceleration","display_name":"growth slowdown","score":0.7540000081062317},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/collapse-of-the-soviet-union","display_name":"collapse of the Soviet Union","score":0.6809999942779541},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/total-factor-productivity","display_name":"total factor productivity","score":0.8619999885559082},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/production-function-model","display_name":"production function model","score":0.5329999923706055},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometric-models","display_name":"econometric models","score":0.675000011920929},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/gresham-s-law","display_name":"Gresham's law","score":0.7039999961853027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cold-war","display_name":"Cold War","score":0.4189999997615814}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777242750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q31351","display_name":"Slowdown","level":2,"score":0.9494680762290955},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.6010448336601257},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2909371097","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q176494","display_name":"Economic slowdown","level":2,"score":0.588829517364502},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165556158","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q83937","display_name":"Keynesian economics","level":1,"score":0.5359874963760376},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C47768531","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1127188","display_name":"Development economics","level":1,"score":0.3916156589984894},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.38948893547058105},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18547055","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q47417","display_name":"International economics","level":1,"score":0.3323597311973572},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C6303427","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q47398","display_name":"Economic history","level":1,"score":0.3307339549064636},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C50522688","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q189833","display_name":"Economic growth","level":1,"score":0.10063555836677551}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1080/09668130120060224","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09668130120060224","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09668130120060224","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S115434995","display_name":"Europe Asia Studies","issn_l":"0966-8136","issn":["0966-8136","1465-3427"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","fnege-4","jufo-3","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319847","host_organization_name":"Routledge","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319847","https://openalex.org/P4310320547"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Routledge","Taylor & Francis"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Europe-Asia Studies","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"doi:10.2139/ssrn.190293","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.190293","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.190293","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210172589","display_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","issn_l":"1556-5068","issn":["1556-5068"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1318003438","host_organization_name":"RELX Group (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1318003438"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:taf:ceasxx:v:53:y:2001:i:5:p:675-695","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/09668130120060224","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.2139/ssrn.190293","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.190293","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.190293","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210172589","display_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","issn_l":"1556-5068","issn":["1556-5068"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1318003438","host_organization_name":"RELX Group (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1318003438"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":56,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W315296917","https://openalex.org/W634718083","https://openalex.org/W1490596425","https://openalex.org/W1490791364","https://openalex.org/W1521487929","https://openalex.org/W1544260770","https://openalex.org/W1554853386","https://openalex.org/W1601827142","https://openalex.org/W1605777482","https://openalex.org/W1608892878","https://openalex.org/W1963675428","https://openalex.org/W1967371092","https://openalex.org/W1967614925","https://openalex.org/W1968820178","https://openalex.org/W1970296170","https://openalex.org/W1975559681","https://openalex.org/W1988055167","https://openalex.org/W2019062520","https://openalex.org/W2020831821","https://openalex.org/W2021823267","https://openalex.org/W2024530798","https://openalex.org/W2028747791","https://openalex.org/W2034783043","https://openalex.org/W2040298819","https://openalex.org/W2053365818","https://openalex.org/W2056652945","https://openalex.org/W2057350584","https://openalex.org/W2064892093","https://openalex.org/W2065474264","https://openalex.org/W2068698852","https://openalex.org/W2071399102","https://openalex.org/W2088810860","https://openalex.org/W2094058515","https://openalex.org/W2104079867","https://openalex.org/W2153651405","https://openalex.org/W2174928843","https://openalex.org/W2305686875","https://openalex.org/W2327930133","https://openalex.org/W2328081178","https://openalex.org/W2328198103","https://openalex.org/W2332421009","https://openalex.org/W2333680510","https://openalex.org/W2341943305","https://openalex.org/W2483139241","https://openalex.org/W2546234361","https://openalex.org/W2565159746","https://openalex.org/W2962829755","https://openalex.org/W2963429065","https://openalex.org/W3021535107","https://openalex.org/W3022051093","https://openalex.org/W4234222458","https://openalex.org/W4235679244","https://openalex.org/W4237763964","https://openalex.org/W4239195720","https://openalex.org/W4241670625","https://openalex.org/W4243367104"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W1585944567","https://openalex.org/W1578078839","https://openalex.org/W2325261896","https://openalex.org/W177360392","https://openalex.org/W2407699344","https://openalex.org/W1585635534","https://openalex.org/W1997339396","https://openalex.org/W3176999940","https://openalex.org/W2517667382","https://openalex.org/W1969468854"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Western":[0],"forecasters":[1,57],"overestimated":[2,122],"economic":[3],"growth":[4,26,40,68,80,124,141,225],"in":[5,8,32,69,79,131,155,195,208],"the":[6,9,21,24,33,37,47,50,56,65,70,76,90,107,113,123,132,146,174,177,180,182,189,193,200,215,229],"USSR":[7,201],"last":[10],"fifteen":[11],"years":[12,197],"of":[13,23,46,49,67,75,117,120,125,134,148,158,176,179,188,237],"its":[14],"existence.":[15],"They":[16],"were":[17,111,233],"projecting":[18],"at":[19,36],"least":[20],"continuation":[22,74,147],"recent":[25],"rates,":[27],"if":[28],"not":[29,54],"their":[30],"increase,":[31],"near":[34],"future,":[35],"time":[38],"when":[39],"was":[41,171,198,207],"slowing":[42],"down.":[43],"The":[44,98,184],"errors":[45],"forecasts":[48,163],"late":[51,190],"1970s":[52],"did":[53],"lead":[55],"to":[58,64,144,210,235],"abandon":[59],"this":[60],"approach,":[61],"and":[62,128],"led":[63],"overestimation":[66],"1980s.":[71],"A":[72],"simple":[73],"1951-75":[77],"trend":[78],"rates":[81],"yielded":[82],"more":[83,166],"accurate":[84,162,167],"predictions":[85],"than":[86,204],"those":[87,196,236],"based":[88],"on":[89,173],"aggregate":[91],"production":[92],"function":[93],"or":[94],"large-scale":[95],"econometric":[96],"models.":[97],"paper":[99],"discusses":[100],"two":[101],"likely":[102],"reasons":[103],"for":[104,214],"Sovietologists":[105],"ignoring":[106],"slowdown":[108,142],"trend.":[109],"Forecasters":[110],"using":[112],"data":[114],"that,":[115],"because":[116],"an":[118,151],"error":[119],"interpretation,":[121],"capital":[126],"stock":[127],"implied":[129],"declines":[130],"level":[133],"total":[135],"factor":[136],"productivity.":[137],"To":[138],"project":[139,145],"continued":[140],"meant":[143],"productivity":[149],"decline,":[150],"implausible":[152],"development.":[153],"Also,":[154],"a":[156,212],"kind":[157],"Gresham's":[159],"Law,":[160],"less":[161],"drove":[164],"out":[165],"ones,":[168],"as":[169,224],"doubt":[170],"cast":[172],"motives":[175],"supplier":[178],"latter,":[181],"CIA.":[183],"faculty":[185],"club":[186],"wisdom":[187],"1980s-1990s":[191],"that":[192],"CIA":[194,230],"making":[199],"appear":[202],"stronger":[203],"it":[205],"actually":[206],"order":[209],"provide":[211],"justification":[213],"American":[216],"military":[217],"buildup":[218],"had":[219],"no":[220],"foundation.":[221],"As":[222],"far":[223],"forecasting":[226],"is":[227],"concerned,":[228],"analytic":[231],"efforts":[232],"superior":[234],"academic":[238],"Sovietologists.":[239]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":15},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-08T12:12:28.789561","created_date":"2021-02-01T00:00:00"}