{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3124673249","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1251554","title":"Confidence and the transmission of macroeconomic uncertainty in U.S. recessions","display_name":"Confidence and the transmission of macroeconomic uncertainty in U.S. recessions","publication_year":2016,"publication_date":"2016-11-10","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3124673249","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1251554","mag":"3124673249"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1080/00036846.2016.1251554","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1251554","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1251554","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S201533460","display_name":"Applied Economics","issn_l":"0003-6846","issn":["0003-6846","1466-4283"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","fnege-3","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-40","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547","https://openalex.org/P4310320449"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis","Informa"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Applied Economics","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2710067","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5100367234","display_name":"Fang Zhang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3049-4369","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3049-4369"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I142934699","display_name":"California State University, Fullerton","ror":"https://ror.org/02avqqw26","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I142934699"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Fang Zhang","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Economics, California State University, Fullerton, CA, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Economics, California State University, Fullerton, CA, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I142934699"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5100367234"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I142934699"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":1.426,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":8,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.89437311,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":95},"biblio":{"volume":"49","issue":"29","first_page":"2893","last_page":"2909"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.7919999957084656,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.7919999957084656,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11059","display_name":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","score":0.1923000067472458,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11711","display_name":"COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts","score":0.006099999882280827,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/consumer-confidence","display_name":"consumer confidence","score":0.6850000023841858},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/macroeconomic-uncertainty","display_name":"macroeconomic uncertainty","score":0.9089999794960022},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/uncertainty-shocks","display_name":"uncertainty shocks","score":0.9909999966621399},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/recession","display_name":"economic recession","score":0.578000009059906},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/counterfactual-decomposition","display_name":"counterfactual decomposition","score":0.9279999732971191},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/business-cycles","display_name":"business cycles","score":0.5230000019073486}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C195742910","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q176494","display_name":"Recession","level":2,"score":0.8426413536071777},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.8059155941009521},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C133029050","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q385593","display_name":"Vector autoregression","level":2,"score":0.662330150604248},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C108650721","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1783253","display_name":"Counterfactual thinking","level":2,"score":0.5561903119087219},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5496885180473328},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44249647","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q208498","display_name":"Confidence interval","level":2,"score":0.45914340019226074},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C96405632","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128416","display_name":"Consumer confidence index","level":2,"score":0.4348447024822235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89715816","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7915763","display_name":"Variance decomposition of forecast errors","level":2,"score":0.43362778425216675},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165556158","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q83937","display_name":"Keynesian economics","level":1,"score":0.2785489559173584},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.14117023348808289},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.0919533371925354},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111472728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9471","display_name":"Epistemology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1080/00036846.2016.1251554","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1251554","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1251554","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S201533460","display_name":"Applied Economics","issn_l":"0003-6846","issn":["0003-6846","1466-4283"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","fnege-3","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-40","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547","https://openalex.org/P4310320449"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis","Informa"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Applied Economics","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"doi:10.2139/ssrn.2710067","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2710067","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2710067","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210172589","display_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","issn_l":"1556-5068","issn":["1556-5068"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1318003438","host_organization_name":"RELX Group (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1318003438"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:29:p:2893-2909","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2016.1251554","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.2139/ssrn.2710067","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2710067","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2710067","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210172589","display_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","issn_l":"1556-5068","issn":["1556-5068"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1318003438","host_organization_name":"RELX Group (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1318003438"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":34,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1497618959","https://openalex.org/W1503128159","https://openalex.org/W1562701093","https://openalex.org/W2030664064","https://openalex.org/W2038601479","https://openalex.org/W2038799475","https://openalex.org/W2042883439","https://openalex.org/W2057989832","https://openalex.org/W2096756813","https://openalex.org/W2103727359","https://openalex.org/W2109438469","https://openalex.org/W2133073622","https://openalex.org/W2135318979","https://openalex.org/W2144836007","https://openalex.org/W2163065315","https://openalex.org/W2167926373","https://openalex.org/W2783905182","https://openalex.org/W2889842381","https://openalex.org/W3121290475","https://openalex.org/W3121374406","https://openalex.org/W3121510993","https://openalex.org/W3121768106","https://openalex.org/W3121786260","https://openalex.org/W3122708673","https://openalex.org/W3122846673","https://openalex.org/W3124863455","https://openalex.org/W3125521856","https://openalex.org/W3147320061","https://openalex.org/W4230167689","https://openalex.org/W4236290419","https://openalex.org/W4241680058","https://openalex.org/W4247243142","https://openalex.org/W4300563855","https://openalex.org/W4319153477"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3121510993","https://openalex.org/W4416793060","https://openalex.org/W3121984463","https://openalex.org/W4389317966","https://openalex.org/W4214858780","https://openalex.org/W2775047032","https://openalex.org/W2534881661","https://openalex.org/W3034154161","https://openalex.org/W4214777169","https://openalex.org/W3125555969"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0],"article":[1],"studies":[2],"the":[3,8,23,35,40,54,75,79,86,91],"role":[4,36,80],"of":[5,10,26,37,65,81,93],"confidence":[6,38,55,82],"in":[7,43,78,90],"transmission":[9],"uncertainty":[11,27,66,94],"shocks":[12],"during":[13,69],"U.S.":[14],"recessions.":[15,70],"I":[16,49,71],"use":[17],"smooth-transition":[18],"vector-autoregression":[19],"(ST-VAR)":[20],"to":[21,33,58],"examine":[22],"regime-dependent":[24],"effect":[25],"shocks,":[28,67],"and":[29,47,61],"a":[30],"counterfactual":[31],"decomposition":[32],"isolate":[34],"when":[39],"economy":[41],"is":[42],"different":[44],"regimes,":[45],"recessions":[46],"non-recessions.":[48],"find":[50,73],"that":[51,74],"shutting":[52],"down":[53],"channel":[56],"leads":[57],"greatly":[59],"dampened":[60],"less":[62],"persistent":[63],"effects":[64,92],"especially":[68],"also":[72],"cross-regime":[76,87],"difference":[77,89],"can":[83],"largely":[84],"explain":[85],"short-run":[88],"shocks.":[95]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2021-02-01T00:00:00"}