{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3124598282","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2308/accr-50526","title":"Forecasting without Consequence? Evidence on the Properties of Retiring CEOs' Forecasts of Future Earnings","display_name":"Forecasting without Consequence? Evidence on the Properties of Retiring CEOs' Forecasts of Future Earnings","publication_year":2013,"publication_date":"2013-06-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3124598282","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2308/accr-50526","mag":"3124598282"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.2308/accr-50526","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2308/accr-50526","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2308/accr-50526","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S160506855","display_name":"The Accounting Review","issn_l":"0001-4826","issn":["0001-4826","1558-7967"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a-star","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","fnege-1-star","ft50","jufo-3","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","utd24","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310316290","host_organization_name":"American Accounting Association","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310316290"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["American Accounting Association"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"The Accounting Review","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2194228","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5086978104","display_name":"Cory A. Cassell","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7136-7454","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7136-7454"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I78715868","display_name":"University of Arkansas at Fayetteville","ror":"https://ror.org/05jbt9m15","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I78715868"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Cory A. Cassell","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Arkansas, Business Bldg. 454, Fayetteville, AR 72701, United States","University of Arkansas"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Arkansas, Business Bldg. 454, Fayetteville, AR 72701, United States","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I78715868"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Arkansas","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I78715868"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5010722453","display_name":"Shawn X. Huang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9216-961X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9216-961X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I55732556","display_name":"Arizona State University","ror":"https://ror.org/03efmqc40","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I55732556"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Shawn X. Huang","raw_affiliation_strings":["Arizona State University (ASU) - School of Accountancy, Tempe, AZ 85287, United States","Arizona State University"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Arizona State University (ASU) - School of Accountancy, Tempe, AZ 85287, United States","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55732556"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Arizona State University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55732556"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5101674966","display_name":"Juan Manuel S\u00e1nchez","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7451-5192","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7451-5192"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I12315562","display_name":"Texas Tech University","ror":"https://ror.org/0405mnx93","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I12315562"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I45438204","display_name":"The University of Texas at San Antonio","ror":"https://ror.org/01kd65564","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I45438204"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Juan Manuel Sanchez","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Texas at San Antonio, One UTSA Circle, San Antonio, TX 78249, United States","Texas Tech University"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Texas at San Antonio, One UTSA Circle, San Antonio, TX 78249, United States","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I45438204"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Texas Tech University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I12315562"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5010722453"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55732556"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":11.0382,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":41,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.97949073,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":92,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"88","issue":"6","first_page":"1909","last_page":"1937"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10081","display_name":"Auditing, Earnings Management, Governance","score":0.986299991607666,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1402","display_name":"Accounting"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10081","display_name":"Auditing, Earnings Management, Governance","score":0.986299991607666,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1402","display_name":"Accounting"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10019","display_name":"Corporate Finance and Governance","score":0.00800000037997961,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1402","display_name":"Accounting"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.0013000000035390258,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ceo-turnover","display_name":"CEO turnover","score":0.621999979019165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/earnings-forecasts","display_name":"earnings forecasts","score":0.6470000147819519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ceo-equity-incentives","display_name":"CEO equity incentives","score":0.8370000123977661},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/discretionary-expenditures","display_name":"discretionary expenditures","score":0.7789999842643738},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/institutional-ownership","display_name":"institutional ownership","score":0.8830000162124634},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/monitoring-mechanisms","display_name":"monitoring mechanisms","score":0.6179999709129333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/optimism-bias","display_name":"optimism bias","score":0.527999997138977}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781426361","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5326940","display_name":"Earnings","level":2,"score":0.8249472379684448},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C29122968","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1414816","display_name":"Incentive","level":2,"score":0.7311946749687195},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199728807","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2578557","display_name":"Equity (law)","level":2,"score":0.6673532724380493},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779664074","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3518405","display_name":"Terminal (telecommunication)","level":2,"score":0.5254862904548645},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166052673","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q83021","display_name":"Empirical evidence","level":2,"score":0.5140095949172974},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.4846056401729584},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.45465564727783203},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121955636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4116214","display_name":"Accounting","level":1,"score":0.4445911645889282},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C4249254","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3044431","display_name":"Demographic economics","level":1,"score":0.41819122433662415},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.39922618865966797},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C556758197","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q580018","display_name":"Monetary economics","level":1,"score":0.37930408120155334},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175444787","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39072","display_name":"Microeconomics","level":1,"score":0.1117543876171112},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.08082172274589539},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76155785","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q418","display_name":"Telecommunications","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111472728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9471","display_name":"Epistemology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.2308/accr-50526","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2308/accr-50526","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2308/accr-50526","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S160506855","display_name":"The Accounting Review","issn_l":"0001-4826","issn":["0001-4826","1558-7967"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a-star","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","fnege-1-star","ft50","jufo-3","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","utd24","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310316290","host_organization_name":"American Accounting Association","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310316290"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["American Accounting Association"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"The Accounting Review","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"doi:10.2139/ssrn.2194228","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2194228","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2194228","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210172589","display_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","issn_l":"1556-5068","issn":["1556-5068"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1318003438","host_organization_name":"RELX Group (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1318003438"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.2139/ssrn.2194228","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2194228","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2194228","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210172589","display_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","issn_l":"1556-5068","issn":["1556-5068"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1318003438","host_organization_name":"RELX Group (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1318003438"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":59,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1494322119","https://openalex.org/W1505552448","https://openalex.org/W1555715885","https://openalex.org/W1677595927","https://openalex.org/W1842033523","https://openalex.org/W1977211709","https://openalex.org/W1978711401","https://openalex.org/W1980777141","https://openalex.org/W1997078307","https://openalex.org/W2005130392","https://openalex.org/W2019297536","https://openalex.org/W2031987703","https://openalex.org/W2048333123","https://openalex.org/W2048433756","https://openalex.org/W2057190074","https://openalex.org/W2061780576","https://openalex.org/W2069772414","https://openalex.org/W2072230298","https://openalex.org/W2075288496","https://openalex.org/W2081954355","https://openalex.org/W2088039507","https://openalex.org/W2091033472","https://openalex.org/W2105846595","https://openalex.org/W2105940114","https://openalex.org/W2108818539","https://openalex.org/W2113987915","https://openalex.org/W2115412054","https://openalex.org/W2118949969","https://openalex.org/W2126960702","https://openalex.org/W2136336587","https://openalex.org/W2139998203","https://openalex.org/W2146181949","https://openalex.org/W2147248109","https://openalex.org/W2151428644","https://openalex.org/W2160184254","https://openalex.org/W2164740120","https://openalex.org/W2264394070","https://openalex.org/W2268712472","https://openalex.org/W2559731368","https://openalex.org/W3121378123","https://openalex.org/W3122224215","https://openalex.org/W3122933629","https://openalex.org/W3122984618","https://openalex.org/W3123180589","https://openalex.org/W3123343110","https://openalex.org/W3123666967","https://openalex.org/W3123897291","https://openalex.org/W3123984361","https://openalex.org/W3124309473","https://openalex.org/W3124368563","https://openalex.org/W3124595561","https://openalex.org/W3124977184","https://openalex.org/W3125126843","https://openalex.org/W3125491259","https://openalex.org/W3125695164","https://openalex.org/W3125766803","https://openalex.org/W3125843505","https://openalex.org/W4233955710","https://openalex.org/W7136153405"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7111021982","https://openalex.org/W1968371134","https://openalex.org/W3194332243","https://openalex.org/W4321073131","https://openalex.org/W3082991855","https://openalex.org/W2983725928","https://openalex.org/W3201594148","https://openalex.org/W924290229","https://openalex.org/W1543861244","https://openalex.org/W4238735516"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"ABSTRACT:":[0],"We":[1],"investigate":[2],"whether":[3],"retiring":[4,35,69],"CEOs":[5,36],"engage":[6],"in":[7,15,54,100,114,122,159,169],"opportunistic":[8],"terminal-year":[9,71,93],"forecasting":[10,94],"behavior":[11,18,95],"and":[12,46,83,108,118],"the":[13,66,101,115,123,144,160,166,170],"circumstances":[14],"which":[16],"such":[17,50,129],"is":[19],"likely":[20,39,78],"to":[21,40,59,79,89],"be":[22],"more":[23,38,52,77,85,98],"or":[24],"less":[25,120],"pronounced.":[26],"Using":[27],"a":[28,140],"within-CEO":[29],"empirical":[30],"design,":[31],"we":[32],"find":[33],"that":[34,47,148],"are":[37,76,84,112,162],"issue":[41,49],"forecasts":[42,51,72],"of":[43,73,103,125,143],"future":[44,74],"earnings,":[45],"they":[48],"frequently":[53],"their":[55,63],"terminal":[56,116],"year":[57],"relative":[58,88],"other":[60],"years":[61],"during":[62],"tenure":[64],"with":[65],"firm.":[67],"Further,":[68],"CEOs'":[70],"earnings":[75],"convey":[80],"good":[81],"news":[82],"optimistically":[86],"biased":[87],"pre-terminal":[90],"years.":[91],"Opportunistic":[92],"is:":[96],"(1)":[97],"pronounced":[99,121],"presence":[102,124],"higher":[104,131],"CEO":[105,145],"equity":[106],"incentives":[107],"when":[109],"discretionary":[110],"expenditures":[111],"cut":[113],"year,":[117],"(2)":[119],"stronger":[126],"monitoring":[127],"mechanisms,":[128],"as":[130],"institutional":[132],"ownership.":[133],"Collectively,":[134],"our":[135],"results":[136],"provide":[137],"evidence":[138],"on":[139],"potential":[141],"implication":[142],"horizon":[146],"problem":[147],"has":[149],"not":[150],"been":[151],"investigated":[152],"previously.":[153],"Data":[154],"Availability:":[155],"All":[156],"data":[157],"used":[158],"study":[161],"publicly":[163],"available":[164],"from":[165],"sources":[167],"cited":[168],"text.":[171]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":4}],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2021-02-01T00:00:00"}