{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3122595987","doi":"https://doi.org/10.47473/2020rmm0071","title":"Corporate Default Forecasting with Machine Learning","display_name":"Corporate Default Forecasting with Machine Learning","publication_year":2020,"publication_date":"2020-12-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3122595987","doi":"https://doi.org/10.47473/2020rmm0071","mag":"3122595987"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.47473/2020rmm0071","doi":"https://doi.org/10.47473/2020rmm0071","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.47473/2020rmm0071","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210181268","display_name":"Risk Management Magazine","issn_l":"2612-3665","issn":["2612-3665","2724-2153"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","ddh","doaj"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Risk Management Magazine","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"diamond","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.47473/2020rmm0071","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Banca di Italia","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I103737770","display_name":"Bank of Italy","ror":"https://ror.org/03v2nbx43","country_code":"IT","type":"funder","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I103737770"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Banca di Italia","raw_affiliation_strings":["Banca d'Italia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Banca d'Italia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I103737770"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5021920433","display_name":"Mirko Moscatelli","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I103737770","display_name":"Bank of Italy","ror":"https://ror.org/03v2nbx43","country_code":"IT","type":"funder","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I103737770"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mirko Moscatelli","raw_affiliation_strings":["Banca d'Italia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Banca d'Italia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I103737770"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5040694564","display_name":"Simone Narizzano","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I103737770","display_name":"Bank of Italy","ror":"https://ror.org/03v2nbx43","country_code":"IT","type":"funder","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I103737770"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Simone Narizzano","raw_affiliation_strings":["Banca d'Italia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Banca d'Italia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I103737770"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Banca di Italia","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I103737770","display_name":"Bank of Italy","ror":"https://ror.org/03v2nbx43","country_code":"IT","type":"funder","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I103737770"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Banca di Italia","raw_affiliation_strings":["Banca d'Italia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Banca d'Italia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I103737770"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5037016055","display_name":"Fabio Parlapiano","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Fabio Parlapiano","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Banca di Italia","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Banca di Italia","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5061560363","display_name":"Gianluca Viggiano","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Gianluca Viggiano","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Banca di Italia","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Banca di Italia","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":8.8154,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":28,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.97676714,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"3","issue":"2020","first_page":"4","last_page":"14"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11653","display_name":"Financial Distress and Bankruptcy Prediction","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1402","display_name":"Accounting"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11653","display_name":"Financial Distress and Bankruptcy Prediction","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1402","display_name":"Accounting"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11496","display_name":"Credit Risk and Financial Regulations","score":0.00019999999494757503,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/credit-risk","display_name":"credit risk","score":0.9459999799728394},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"machine learning","score":0.8960000276565552},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/financial-ratios","display_name":"financial ratios","score":0.925000011920929},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/non-financial-firms","display_name":"non-financial firms","score":0.8569999933242798},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/financial-statement-information","display_name":"financial statement data","score":0.6489999890327454},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/discriminatory-power","display_name":"discriminatory power","score":0.6200000047683716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/italian-firms","display_name":"Italian firms","score":0.6299999952316284}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781027943","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q192907","display_name":"Financial statement","level":3,"score":0.5796704292297363},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.5794159770011902},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5637091398239136},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.5407838821411133},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C178350159","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q162714","display_name":"Credit risk","level":2,"score":0.5020432472229004},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2982736386","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Statistical learning","level":2,"score":0.4638381600379944},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10138342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43015","display_name":"Finance","level":1,"score":0.4176708459854126},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777026412","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2684591","display_name":"Statement (logic)","level":2,"score":0.4146277904510498},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C30589699","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q624028","display_name":"Credit default swap","level":3,"score":0.41309165954589844},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.3684101700782776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.1888563632965088},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121955636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4116214","display_name":"Accounting","level":1,"score":0.1886710226535797},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.16725745797157288},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199521495","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q181487","display_name":"Audit","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.47473/2020rmm0071","doi":"https://doi.org/10.47473/2020rmm0071","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.47473/2020rmm0071","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210181268","display_name":"Risk Management Magazine","issn_l":"2612-3665","issn":["2612-3665","2724-2153"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","ddh","doaj"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Risk Management Magazine","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:26fd086f7f0747489f09aa7d1b82f636","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/26fd086f7f0747489f09aa7d1b82f636","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Risk Management Magazine, Vol 15, Iss 3, Pp 4-14 (2020)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.47473/2020rmm0071","doi":"https://doi.org/10.47473/2020rmm0071","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.47473/2020rmm0071","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210181268","display_name":"Risk Management Magazine","issn_l":"2612-3665","issn":["2612-3665","2724-2153"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","ddh","doaj"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Risk Management Magazine","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":18,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W609451776","https://openalex.org/W1678356000","https://openalex.org/W1766594731","https://openalex.org/W1982120517","https://openalex.org/W2052611008","https://openalex.org/W2075159929","https://openalex.org/W2104167780","https://openalex.org/W2124532504","https://openalex.org/W2138140115","https://openalex.org/W2318977435","https://openalex.org/W2531566199","https://openalex.org/W2606916050","https://openalex.org/W2786715987","https://openalex.org/W2911964244","https://openalex.org/W2921877550","https://openalex.org/W2968349877","https://openalex.org/W3123436326","https://openalex.org/W4232359393"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4388703096","https://openalex.org/W6960274097","https://openalex.org/W3205773767","https://openalex.org/W3047063927","https://openalex.org/W7037032671","https://openalex.org/W6885063830","https://openalex.org/W4411429752","https://openalex.org/W7223014412","https://openalex.org/W4401694155","https://openalex.org/W7220343306"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"We":[0],"compare":[1],"statistical":[2,62],"models":[3,42,49],"usually":[4],"employed":[5],"in":[6,54],"credit":[7,24,79],"risk":[8],"forecasting":[9],"with":[10,59],"machine":[11],"learning":[12],"algorithms":[13],"(ML).":[14],"Using":[15],"a":[16,51],"large":[17],"dataset":[18,75],"which":[19],"includes":[20],"financial":[21,44],"ratios":[22],"and":[23,57],"behavioral":[25,80],"indicators":[26],"for":[27],"about":[28],"300,000":[29],"Italian":[30],"non-financial":[31],"firms":[32],"from":[33],"2011":[34],"to":[35,61,76],"2017,":[36],"we":[37,71],"show":[38],"that":[39],"training":[40,74],"the":[41,73],"on":[43],"statement":[45],"data":[46,81],"only,":[47],"ML":[48],"record":[50],"significant":[52],"improvement":[53,66],"discriminatory":[55],"power":[56],"precision":[58],"respect":[60],"models;":[63],"however,":[64],"this":[65],"is":[67],"less":[68],"pronounced":[69],"when":[70],"enlarge":[72],"include":[77],"also":[78]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":3}],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2021-02-01T00:00:00"}