{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3122440586","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1086/688178","title":"Politicians\u2019 Luck of the Draw: Evidence from the Spanish Christmas Lottery","display_name":"Politicians\u2019 Luck of the Draw: Evidence from the Spanish Christmas Lottery","publication_year":2016,"publication_date":"2016-09-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3122440586","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1086/688178","mag":"3122440586"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1086/688178","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1086/688178","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1086/688178","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S95323914","display_name":"Journal of Political Economy","issn_l":"0022-3808","issn":["0022-3808","1537-534X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a-star","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","fnege-1-star","ft50","jufo-3","ki-jl-2","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315672","host_organization_name":"University of Chicago Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315672","https://openalex.org/P4310315690"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["University of Chicago Press","University of Chicago"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Political Economy","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1738906","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5012003872","display_name":"Manuel F. Bagues","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0004-8340-5130","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0004-8340-5130"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I197518295","display_name":"IZA - Institute of Labor Economics","ror":"https://ror.org/029s44460","country_code":"DE","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I197518295"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I9927081","display_name":"Aalto University","ror":"https://ror.org/020hwjq30","country_code":"FI","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I9927081"]}],"countries":["DE","FI"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Manuel Bagues","raw_affiliation_strings":["Aalto University and Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)","IZA Institute of Labor Economics"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Aalto University and Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I197518295","https://openalex.org/I9927081"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"IZA Institute of Labor Economics","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I197518295"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5076778143","display_name":"Berta Esteve-Volart","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I192455969","display_name":"York University","ror":"https://ror.org/05fq50484","country_code":"CA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I192455969"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I52099693","display_name":"University of York","ror":"https://ror.org/04m01e293","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I52099693"]}],"countries":["CA","GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Berta Esteve-Volart","raw_affiliation_strings":["York University","University of York"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"York University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I192455969"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of York","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I52099693"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":4,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":64.0925,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":124,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.99830011,"is_in_top_1_percent":true,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":"124","issue":"5","first_page":"1269","last_page":"1294"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10108","display_name":"Electoral Systems and Political Participation","score":0.9965999722480774,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10108","display_name":"Electoral Systems and Political Participation","score":0.9965999722480774,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11621","display_name":"Fiscal Policies and Political Economy","score":0.0008999999845400453,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13718","display_name":"Media Influence and Politics","score":0.0005000000237487257,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/incumbency-advantage","display_name":"incumbency advantage","score":0.7839999794960022},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/voting-behavior","display_name":"voting behavior","score":0.7609999775886536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economic-conditions","display_name":"economic conditions","score":0.7120000123977661},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/lottery-winners","display_name":"lottery winners","score":0.7009999752044678},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/happiness","display_name":"happiness","score":0.3959999978542328},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/status-quo-bias","display_name":"status quo bias","score":0.8629999756813049},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/incumbent-vote-share","display_name":"incumbent vote share","score":0.42899999022483826},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/external-shocks","display_name":"external shocks","score":0.44600000977516174}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777340749","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6684955","display_name":"Lottery","level":2,"score":0.9691001176834106},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C61783943","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1970348","display_name":"Luck","level":2,"score":0.7045412063598633},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C520049643","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q189760","display_name":"Voting","level":3,"score":0.5997610092163086},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778137410","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2732820","display_name":"Government (linguistics)","level":2,"score":0.5539059042930603},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781249084","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q908656","display_name":"Preference","level":2,"score":0.4792744815349579},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.4694649279117584},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778999518","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8","display_name":"Happiness","level":2,"score":0.4432210326194763},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776748549","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q201610","display_name":"Status quo","level":2,"score":0.419760137796402},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781300812","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q178061","display_name":"Shock (circulatory)","level":2,"score":0.4119129776954651},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112698675","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37038","display_name":"Advertising","level":1,"score":0.4076838493347168},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.34995001554489136},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C100001284","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2248246","display_name":"Public economics","level":1,"score":0.3436570167541504},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.32796525955200195},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C34447519","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q179522","display_name":"Market economy","level":1,"score":0.1601686179637909},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175444787","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39072","display_name":"Microeconomics","level":1,"score":0.1146990954875946},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.09324771165847778},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126322002","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11180","display_name":"Internal medicine","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C27206212","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q34178","display_name":"Theology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C94625758","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7163","display_name":"Politics","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41895202","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8162","display_name":"Linguistics","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":6,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1086/688178","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1086/688178","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1086/688178","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S95323914","display_name":"Journal of Political Economy","issn_l":"0022-3808","issn":["0022-3808","1537-534X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a-star","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","fnege-1-star","ft50","jufo-3","ki-jl-2","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315672","host_organization_name":"University of Chicago Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315672","https://openalex.org/P4310315690"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["University of Chicago Press","University of Chicago"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Political Economy","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"doi:10.2139/ssrn.1738906","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1738906","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1738906","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210172589","display_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","issn_l":"1556-5068","issn":["1556-5068"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1318003438","host_organization_name":"RELX Group (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1318003438"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},{"id":"pmh:oai:wrap.warwick.ac.uk:132167","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/132167/1/WRAP-politicians-luck-draw-evidence-spanish-christmas-lottery-Bagues-2016.pdf","pdf_url":"http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/132167/1/WRAP-politicians-luck-draw-evidence-spanish-christmas-lottery-Bagues-2016.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400665","display_name":"Warwick Research Archive Portal (University of Warwick)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I39555362","host_organization_name":"University of Warwick","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I39555362"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Journal Article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2011-01","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://documentos.fedea.net/pubs/dt/2011/dt-2011-01.pdf","pdf_url":"https://documentos.fedea.net/pubs/dt/2011/dt-2011-01.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:aaltodoc.aalto.fi:123456789/103434","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://research.aalto.fi/en/publications/863a44c2-f8e0-437e-84b8-feb5373610dd","pdf_url":"https://research.aalto.fi/files/61257151/688178.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401662","display_name":"Aaltodoc (Aalto University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I9927081","host_organization_name":"Aalto University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I9927081"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"A1 Alkuper\u00e4isartikkeli tieteellisess\u00e4 aikakauslehdess\u00e4"},{"id":"mag:3122440586","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2011-01","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.2139/ssrn.1738906","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1738906","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1738906","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210172589","display_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","issn_l":"1556-5068","issn":["1556-5068"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1318003438","host_organization_name":"RELX Group (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1318003438"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.7297000288963318,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16","display_name":"Peace, justice, and strong institutions"}],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"score":0.6299999952316284,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/8","display_name":"Decent work and economic growth"}],"study_designs":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/study-designs/observational-study","display_name":"Observational Study"}],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4275499672","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"ECO2008-06395-C05-05","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320323737","funder_display_name":"Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnolog\u00eda"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4690099072","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"ECO2008-06395-C05-05","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334617","funder_display_name":"Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4787748690","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"ECO2008-01116","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320323737","funder_display_name":"Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnolog\u00eda"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G7074761004","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"ECO2008-01116","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334617","funder_display_name":"Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320323737","display_name":"Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnolog\u00eda","ror":null},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334617","display_name":"Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada","ror":"https://ror.org/04j5jqy92"}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":22,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1480243676","https://openalex.org/W1540047170","https://openalex.org/W1885654877","https://openalex.org/W1984307355","https://openalex.org/W2004810702","https://openalex.org/W2006717024","https://openalex.org/W2033005737","https://openalex.org/W2066025849","https://openalex.org/W2070245776","https://openalex.org/W2077434763","https://openalex.org/W2085927734","https://openalex.org/W2097908050","https://openalex.org/W2109719716","https://openalex.org/W2112994583","https://openalex.org/W2120938061","https://openalex.org/W2142709663","https://openalex.org/W2146805571","https://openalex.org/W2151806647","https://openalex.org/W2160767337","https://openalex.org/W2258948279","https://openalex.org/W3123038373","https://openalex.org/W3124550206"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7096726816","https://openalex.org/W7201855972","https://openalex.org/W7028277014","https://openalex.org/W1586385440","https://openalex.org/W4388314896","https://openalex.org/W7112541660","https://openalex.org/W2257835370","https://openalex.org/W35035424","https://openalex.org/W2161788312","https://openalex.org/W7101145857"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Incumbent":[0],"politicians":[1],"tend":[2,43],"to":[3,44,51],"receive":[4,67],"more":[5,69,86],"votes":[6,70],"when":[7],"economic":[8,58],"conditions":[9,59],"are":[10,35],"good.":[11],"In":[12],"this":[13,20],"paper":[14],"we":[15],"explore":[16],"the":[17,23,28,53,89,97],"source":[18],"of":[19,55],"correlation,":[21],"exploiting":[22],"exceptional":[24],"evidence":[25,75],"provided":[26],"by":[27,38],"Spanish":[29],"Christmas":[30],"Lottery.":[31],"Because":[32],"winning":[33,72],"tickets":[34],"typically":[36],"sold":[37],"one":[39],"lottery":[40],"outlet,":[41],"winners":[42],"be":[45],"geographically":[46],"clustered.":[47],"This":[48],"allows":[49],"us":[50],"study":[52],"impact":[54],"exogenous":[56],"good":[57],"on":[60],"voting":[61],"behavior.":[62],"We":[63],"find":[64],"that":[65],"incumbents":[66],"significantly":[68],"in":[71,82],"provinces.":[73],"The":[74],"is":[76],"consistent":[77],"with":[78,92],"a":[79,93],"temporary":[80],"increase":[81],"happiness":[83],"making":[84],"voters":[85],"lenient":[87],"toward":[88],"incumbent,":[90],"or":[91],"stronger":[94],"preference":[95],"for":[96],"status":[98],"quo.":[99]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":13},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":12},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":14},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":12},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":17},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":11},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":10},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":10},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":3}],"updated_date":"2026-10-14T16:39:01.820549","created_date":"2021-02-01T00:00:00"}