{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3121282017","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1108/14635781111112765","title":"Simulation\u2010based excess return model for real estate development","display_name":"Simulation\u2010based excess return model for real estate development","publication_year":2011,"publication_date":"2011-03-05","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3121282017","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1108/14635781111112765","mag":"3121282017"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1108/14635781111112765","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1108/14635781111112765","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1108/14635781111112765","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S136999626","display_name":"Journal of Property Investment and Finance","issn_l":"1463-578X","issn":["1463-578X","1470-2002"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-40","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319811","host_organization_name":"Emerald Publishing Limited","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319811"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Emerald Publishing Limited"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Property Investment & Finance","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5054868445","display_name":"David J. Gimpelevich","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"David Gimpelevich","raw_affiliation_strings":["Mid\u2010Market Securities LLC, New York, New York, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Mid\u2010Market Securities LLC, New York, New York, USA","institution_ids":[]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5054868445"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":4.1497,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":24,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.94762031,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"29","issue":"2","first_page":"115","last_page":"144"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11976","display_name":"Capital Investment and Risk Analysis","score":0.9442999958992004,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11976","display_name":"Capital Investment and Risk Analysis","score":0.9442999958992004,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14390","display_name":"Real estate and construction management","score":0.02250000089406967,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2216","display_name":"Architecture"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10632","display_name":"Housing Market and Economics","score":0.01850000023841858,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/real-estate-development","display_name":"real estate development","score":0.7850000262260437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/monte-carlo-simulation","display_name":"Monte Carlo simulation","score":0.9599999785423279},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/discounted-cash-flow","display_name":"discounted cash flow","score":0.8629999756813049},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/risk-adjusted-returns","display_name":"risk-adjusted returns","score":0.7229999899864197},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/risk-management","display_name":"risk management","score":0.6420000195503235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/project-valuation","display_name":"project valuation","score":0.7450000047683716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/stochastic-risk-assessment","display_name":"stochastic risk assessment","score":0.6259999871253967},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/risk-premium","display_name":"risk premium","score":0.6200000047683716}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781014177","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q455422","display_name":"Discounted cash flow","level":3,"score":0.7225132584571838},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163428354","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1047513","display_name":"Cash flow","level":2,"score":0.6469774842262268},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.6104010343551636},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.5517647862434387},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C26503482","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1898080","display_name":"Underwriting","level":2,"score":0.5308255553245544},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112930515","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4389547","display_name":"Risk analysis (engineering)","level":1,"score":0.5077511072158813},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C176217482","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q860554","display_name":"Metric (unit)","level":2,"score":0.4941149055957794},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C32896092","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q189447","display_name":"Risk management","level":2,"score":0.485790491104126},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C82279013","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q684740","display_name":"Real estate","level":2,"score":0.4608364701271057},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C19499675","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q232207","display_name":"Monte Carlo method","level":2,"score":0.4112507998943329},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.36379873752593994},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.3519479036331177},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C539667460","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2414942","display_name":"Management science","level":1,"score":0.3375173807144165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.303095281124115},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10138342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43015","display_name":"Finance","level":1,"score":0.2443922460079193},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.16787388920783997},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.15413564443588257},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.12071883678436279},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21547014","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1423657","display_name":"Operations management","level":1,"score":0.1117587685585022},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.11139264702796936}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1108/14635781111112765","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1108/14635781111112765","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1108/14635781111112765","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S136999626","display_name":"Journal of Property Investment and Finance","issn_l":"1463-578X","issn":["1463-578X","1470-2002"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-40","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319811","host_organization_name":"Emerald Publishing Limited","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319811"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Emerald Publishing Limited"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Property Investment & Finance","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":25,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W65111435","https://openalex.org/W1498401391","https://openalex.org/W1522451602","https://openalex.org/W1525050551","https://openalex.org/W1580335598","https://openalex.org/W1664727436","https://openalex.org/W1968940936","https://openalex.org/W1971436291","https://openalex.org/W1982231989","https://openalex.org/W1998506499","https://openalex.org/W2015637388","https://openalex.org/W2018743284","https://openalex.org/W2040548183","https://openalex.org/W2081372324","https://openalex.org/W2091752340","https://openalex.org/W2093570098","https://openalex.org/W2109145964","https://openalex.org/W2122750485","https://openalex.org/W2129657192","https://openalex.org/W2171175658","https://openalex.org/W2187682326","https://openalex.org/W2339677895","https://openalex.org/W3122840769","https://openalex.org/W3125152626","https://openalex.org/W4237473117"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W1900657214","https://openalex.org/W2007610163","https://openalex.org/W3172577397","https://openalex.org/W1496734141","https://openalex.org/W7167265457","https://openalex.org/W6885116461","https://openalex.org/W1971876782","https://openalex.org/W1519930371","https://openalex.org/W2386292529","https://openalex.org/W2900337891"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Purpose":[0],"An":[1],"acute":[2],"need":[3],"exists":[4],"for":[5,110,116,124,159,194,208,243,247,270,280,286,308],"a":[6,107,179,203,281],"practical":[7,108,205,282],"quantitative":[8,112],"risk":[9,69,93,113,233,290,309],"management\u2010based":[10],"real":[11,117,248,271],"estate":[12,118,249,272],"investment":[13],"underwriting":[14,209],"methodology":[15,57,154,242,264],"that":[16,123,182,211,252],"clearly":[17],"helps":[18],"guide":[19,184],"decision":[20,192],"making":[21,195,244],"and":[22,95,121,186,231,277,283,289],"addresses":[23,212],"the":[24,34,73,86,131,152,160,163,172,213,216,223],"shortcomings":[25,150],"of":[26,37,63,85,133,162,165,174,215,222,225,228,301],"discounted":[27,143],"cash":[28,144],"flow":[29,145],"(DCF)":[30],"modeling":[31,87,115],"by":[32,141,155,295],"evaluating":[33],"full":[35],"range":[36,224],"probable":[38],"outcomes.":[39,101,166],"This":[40,103,237],"paper":[41,104,238],"seeks":[42],"to":[43,67,170,191],"address":[44],"this":[45],"issue.":[46],"Design/methodology/approach":[47],"The":[48,263],"simulation\u2010based":[49],"excess":[50],"return":[51],"model":[52],"(SERM)":[53],"is":[54,81,188,253,293],"an":[55,61,240],"original":[56,241],"developed":[58],"based":[59,254],"on":[60,255],"application":[62],"Monte":[64,175,256],"Carlo":[65,176,257],"simulation":[66,258],"project":[68,196,275,287],"assessment":[70,221],"combined":[71,259],"with":[72,90,96,99,130,260],"widely":[74],"practiced":[75],"DCF":[76,92,153,261,297],"modeling.":[77],"A":[78,299],"case":[79],"study":[80],"provided":[82,140],"where":[83],"results":[84,173],"are":[88],"compared":[89],"traditional":[91,142,296],"models":[94],"prior":[97],"projects":[98,120,126,210,251],"known":[100],"Findings":[102],"lays":[105],"out":[106],"method":[109,207,285],"stochastic":[111,157,220],"management":[114,291],"development":[119,250],"illustrates":[122],"identical":[125],"risk\u2010adjusted":[127],"returns":[128,139],"derived":[129],"use":[132],"SERM":[134,147,201],"may":[135],"differ":[136],"significantly":[137],"from":[138],"analysis.":[146,262,298],"corrects":[148],"serious":[149],"in":[151],"incorporating":[156],"tools":[158],"measurement":[161],"universe":[164],"It":[167],"further":[168],"serves":[169],"condense":[171],"simulations":[177],"into":[178],"simplified":[180],"metric":[181],"can":[183],"practitioners":[185],"which":[187],"easily":[189],"communicational":[190],"makers":[193],"funding":[197],"decisions.":[198],"Practical":[199],"implications":[200],"offers":[202],"simple,":[204],"decision\u2010making":[206],"limitations":[214],"prevailing":[217],"methodologies":[218,307],"via:":[219],"outcomes;":[226],"interdependence":[227],"input":[229],"variables;":[230],"objective":[232,284],"premium":[234],"metrics.":[235],"Originality/value":[236],"presents":[239],"project\u2010funding":[245],"decisions":[246],"presented":[265],"here":[266],"will":[267],"have":[268],"value":[269],"developers,":[273],"investors,":[274],"underwriters,":[276],"lenders":[278],"looking":[279],"valuation":[288],"than":[292],"offered":[294],"review":[300],"literature":[302],"did":[303],"not":[304],"reveal":[305],"analogous":[306],"management.":[310]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":3}],"updated_date":"2026-10-16T09:59:22.235173","created_date":"2021-02-01T00:00:00"}