{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3105786751","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28075","title":"Optimally Imprecise Memory and Biased Forecasts","display_name":"Optimally Imprecise Memory and Biased Forecasts","publication_year":2020,"publication_date":"2020-11-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3105786751","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28075","mag":"3105786751"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.3386/w28075","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28075","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28075","pdf_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28075","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2809516038","display_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4322614461"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["National Bureau of Economic Research"],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","raw_type":"report"},"volume":null,"type":"report","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28075","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5087481156","display_name":"Rava Azeredo da Silveira","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8487-4105","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8487-4105"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Rava Azeredo da Silveira","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Yeji Sung","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I29607241","display_name":"\u00c9cole Normale Sup\u00e9rieure - PSL","ror":"https://ror.org/05a0dhs15","country_code":"FR","type":"other","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2746051580","https://openalex.org/I29607241"]}],"countries":["FR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yeji Sung","raw_affiliation_strings":["D\u00e9partement de Physique Ecole Normale Sup\u00e9rieure 24 rue Lhomond 75005 Paris France"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"D\u00e9partement de Physique Ecole Normale Sup\u00e9rieure 24 rue Lhomond 75005 Paris France","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I29607241"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5072791098","display_name":"Michael Woodford","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5485-5280","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5485-5280"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I78577930","display_name":"Columbia University","ror":"https://ror.org/00hj8s172","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I78577930"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Michael Woodford","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Economics Columbia University 420 W. 118th Street New York , NY 10027"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Economics Columbia University 420 W. 118th Street New York , NY 10027","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I78577930"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":38,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.9535999894142151,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.9535999894142151,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.01140000019222498,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12137","display_name":"Economic theories and models","score":0.009499999694526196,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/optimal-decision-making","display_name":"optimal decision making","score":0.7139999866485596},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/rational-inattention","display_name":"rational inattention","score":0.824999988079071},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mutual-information","display_name":"mutual information","score":0.8180000185966492},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-bias","display_name":"forecast bias","score":0.9110000133514404},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/idiosyncratic-noise","display_name":"idiosyncratic noise","score":0.6740000247955322},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/belief-formation","display_name":"belief formation","score":0.3449999988079071}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.43904730677604675},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4045104384422302},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.27957814931869507}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":6,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.3386/w28075","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28075","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28075","pdf_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28075","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2809516038","display_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4322614461"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["National Bureau of Economic Research"],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","raw_type":"report"},{"id":"pmh:oai:HAL:hal-03033626v2","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://hal.science/hal-03033626","pdf_url":"https://hal.science/hal-03033626v2/document","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402512","display_name":"HAL","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4405252976","host_organization_name":"Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4405252976"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"2020","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:HAL:hal-04306681v1","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://hal.science/hal-04306681","pdf_url":"https://hal.science/hal-04306681/document","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402512","display_name":"HAL","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4405252976","host_organization_name":"Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4405252976"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"https://hal.science/hal-04306681","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:HAL:hal-03033626v1","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://hal.science/hal-03033626","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402512","display_name":"HAL","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4405252976","host_organization_name":"Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4405252976"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"https://hal.science/hal-03033626","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:HAL:hal-03425562v1","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://hal.science/hal-03425562","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402512","display_name":"HAL","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4405252976","host_organization_name":"Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4405252976"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"https://hal.science/hal-03425562","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15459","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=15459","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.3386/w28075","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28075","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28075","pdf_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28075","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2809516038","display_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4322614461"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["National Bureau of Economic Research"],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","raw_type":"report"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3105786751.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3105786751.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":19,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1972190631","https://openalex.org/W1973581253","https://openalex.org/W2059199803","https://openalex.org/W2066114905","https://openalex.org/W2138630966","https://openalex.org/W2152717893","https://openalex.org/W2160064424","https://openalex.org/W2161382598","https://openalex.org/W2272326785","https://openalex.org/W2294838456","https://openalex.org/W2325566492","https://openalex.org/W2561810995","https://openalex.org/W2570090515","https://openalex.org/W2742758214","https://openalex.org/W2891408436","https://openalex.org/W2910919999","https://openalex.org/W3092670164","https://openalex.org/W3152658805","https://openalex.org/W4398155452"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3162594708","https://openalex.org/W3092670164","https://openalex.org/W4399878089","https://openalex.org/W4323351842","https://openalex.org/W4297142684","https://openalex.org/W2015724510","https://openalex.org/W2765450063","https://openalex.org/W3125605758","https://openalex.org/W7202365161","https://openalex.org/W4411057821"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"We":[0],"propose":[1],"a":[2,10,15,76,82,111,149,153],"model":[3,54,109,147],"of":[4,20,30,39,47,113,118,120,140,155,157,168],"optimal":[5],"decision":[6],"making":[7],"subject":[8],"to":[9,88,123],"memory":[11,21,46],"constraint.The":[12],"constraint":[13],"is":[14],"limit":[16],"on":[17,144],"the":[18,53,92,108,116,121,127,138,166],"complexity":[19],"measured":[22],"using":[23],"Shannon's":[24],"mutual":[25],"information,":[26],"as":[27],"in":[28,42,91,105,160,170],"models":[29],"rational":[31],"inattention;":[32],"but":[33],"our":[34],"theory":[35],"differs":[36],"from":[37,72],"that":[38,52,56,66,78,84,96],"Sims":[40],"(2003)":[41],"not":[43,86],"assuming":[44],"costless":[45],"past":[48],"cognitive":[49],"states.We":[50],"show":[51],"implies":[55],"both":[57],"forecasts":[58,172],"and":[59,95,126,135,162,179],"actions":[60],"will":[61,69,100],"exhibit":[62],"idiosyncratic":[63],"random":[64],"variation;":[65],"average":[67],"beliefs":[68],"also":[70],"differ":[71],"rationalexpectations":[73],"beliefs,":[74],"with":[75,81],"bias":[77],"fluctuates":[79],"forever":[80],"variance":[83],"does":[85],"fall":[87],"zero":[89],"even":[90],"long":[93],"run;":[94],"more":[97],"recent":[98],"news":[99],"be":[101,124,133],"given":[102],"disproportionate":[103],"weight":[104],"forecasts.We":[106],"solve":[107],"under":[110],"variety":[112],"assumptions":[114],"about":[115],"degree":[117],"persistence":[119],"variable":[122],"forecasted":[125],"horizon":[128],"over":[129],"which":[130],"it":[131],"must":[132],"forecasted,":[134],"examine":[136],"how":[137],"nature":[139],"forecast":[141],"biases":[142],"depends":[143],"these":[145],"parameters.The":[146],"provides":[148],"simple":[150],"explanation":[151],"for":[152],"number":[154],"features":[156],"reported":[158],"expectations":[159],"laboratory":[161],"field":[163],"settings,":[164],"notably":[165],"evidence":[167],"over-reaction":[169],"elicited":[171],"documented":[173],"by":[174],"Afrouzi":[175],"et":[176,181],"al.":[177,182],"(2020)":[178],"Bordalo":[180],"(2020a).":[183]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":13},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":4}],"updated_date":"2026-10-25T09:29:13.331239","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
