{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3104683063","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-51391","title":"Estimation and extrapolation of time trends in registry data \u2014 Borrowing strength from related populations","display_name":"Estimation and extrapolation of time trends in registry data \u2014 Borrowing strength from related populations","publication_year":2011,"publication_date":"2011-12-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3104683063","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-51391","mag":"3104683063"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:www.zora.uzh.ch:51391","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/51391/1/Riebler_Held_2011.pdf","pdf_url":"https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/51391/1/Riebler_Held_2011.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401281","display_name":"Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I202697423","host_organization_name":"University of Zurich","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I202697423"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Riebler, A; Held, L; Rue, H (2012). Estimation and extrapolation of time trends in registry data \u2014 Borrowing strength from related populations. Annals of Applied Statistics, 6(1):304-333.","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/51391/1/Riebler_Held_2011.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5034764787","display_name":"Andrea Riebler","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0004-3998-4032","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0004-3998-4032"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I202697423","display_name":"University of Zurich","ror":"https://ror.org/02crff812","country_code":"CH","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I202697423"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I204778367","display_name":"Norwegian University of Science and Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/05xg72x27","country_code":"NO","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I204778367"]}],"countries":["CH","NO"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Riebler, A","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Zurich, University of Zurich and Norwegian University of Science and Technology"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Zurich, University of Zurich and Norwegian University of Science and Technology","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I202697423","https://openalex.org/I204778367"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5078043213","display_name":"Leonhard Held","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8686-5325","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8686-5325"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I202697423","display_name":"University of Zurich","ror":"https://ror.org/02crff812","country_code":"CH","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I202697423"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I204778367","display_name":"Norwegian University of Science and Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/05xg72x27","country_code":"NO","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I204778367"]}],"countries":["CH","NO"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Held, L","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Zurich, University of Zurich and Norwegian University of Science and Technology"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Zurich, University of Zurich and Norwegian University of Science and Technology","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I202697423","https://openalex.org/I204778367"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5061250326","display_name":"H\u00e5vard Rue","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5833-2011","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5833-2011"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I202697423","display_name":"University of Zurich","ror":"https://ror.org/02crff812","country_code":"CH","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I202697423"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I204778367","display_name":"Norwegian University of Science and Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/05xg72x27","country_code":"NO","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I204778367"]}],"countries":["CH","NO"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Rue, H","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Zurich, University of Zurich and Norwegian University of Science and Technology"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Zurich, University of Zurich and Norwegian University of Science and Technology","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I202697423","https://openalex.org/I204778367"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":15.0083,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":72,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.98696877,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12011","display_name":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","score":0.9092000126838684,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12011","display_name":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","score":0.9092000126838684,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14374","display_name":"Statistical Methods in Epidemiology","score":0.03750000149011612,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10243","display_name":"Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference","score":0.032499998807907104,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/age-period-cohort-model","display_name":"age-period-cohort model","score":0.9860000014305115},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/overdispersion","display_name":"overdispersion","score":0.9369999766349792},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/relative-risk-estimation","display_name":"relative risk estimation","score":0.6449999809265137},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mortality-projections","display_name":"mortality projections","score":0.6359999775886536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/female-mortality","display_name":"female mortality","score":0.7549999952316284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/missing-data-imputation","display_name":"missing data imputation","score":0.902999997138977},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/lee-carter-model","display_name":"Lee-Carter model","score":0.6850000023841858},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/integrated-nested-laplace-approximation","display_name":"integrated nested Laplace approximation","score":0.8309999704360962},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-hierarchical-model","display_name":"Bayesian hierarchical model","score":0.48899999260902405}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C117236510","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7113620","display_name":"Overdispersion","level":4,"score":0.8253844380378723},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.6275681257247925},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C9357733","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6878417","display_name":"Missing data","level":2,"score":0.6096414923667908},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.5944298505783081},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199163554","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1681619","display_name":"Univariate","level":3,"score":0.5739349126815796},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111350023","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1191869","display_name":"Markov chain Monte Carlo","level":3,"score":0.5424221158027649},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3770464","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q775963","display_name":"Smoothing","level":2,"score":0.5399112701416016},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177769412","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q278090","display_name":"Prior probability","level":3,"score":0.5003886222839355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C161584116","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1952580","display_name":"Multivariate statistics","level":2,"score":0.49609121680259705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C58041806","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1660484","display_name":"Imputation (statistics)","level":3,"score":0.4954627752304077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185429906","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1130160","display_name":"Estimator","level":2,"score":0.44418686628341675},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.4262322783470154},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C22243797","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2058297","display_name":"Laplace's method","level":3,"score":0.4180137515068054},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.41763120889663696},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C100906024","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q205692","display_name":"Poisson distribution","level":2,"score":0.3986780345439911},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33643355","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5176731","display_name":"Count data","level":3,"score":0.3828451335430145}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:www.zora.uzh.ch:51391","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/51391/1/Riebler_Held_2011.pdf","pdf_url":"https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/51391/1/Riebler_Held_2011.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401281","display_name":"Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I202697423","host_organization_name":"University of Zurich","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I202697423"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Riebler, A; Held, L; Rue, H (2012). Estimation and extrapolation of time trends in registry data \u2014 Borrowing strength from related populations. Annals of Applied Statistics, 6(1):304-333.","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},{"id":"doi:10.5167/uzh-51391","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-51391","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-51391","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401281","display_name":"Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I202697423","host_organization_name":"University of Zurich","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I202697423"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"JournalArticle"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:www.zora.uzh.ch:51391","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/51391/1/Riebler_Held_2011.pdf","pdf_url":"https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/51391/1/Riebler_Held_2011.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401281","display_name":"Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I202697423","host_organization_name":"University of Zurich","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I202697423"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Riebler, A; Held, L; Rue, H (2012). Estimation and extrapolation of time trends in registry data \u2014 Borrowing strength from related populations. Annals of Applied Statistics, 6(1):304-333.","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Good health and well-being","score":0.8371999859809875,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3"}],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"display_name":"Good health and well-being","score":0.7900000214576721,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":80,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W143236119","https://openalex.org/W1520053542","https://openalex.org/W1578706143","https://openalex.org/W1836663529","https://openalex.org/W1942528571","https://openalex.org/W1959495806","https://openalex.org/W1963915199","https://openalex.org/W1967523868","https://openalex.org/W1968303973","https://openalex.org/W1969498530","https://openalex.org/W1969829392","https://openalex.org/W1970155041","https://openalex.org/W1978242278","https://openalex.org/W1983125795","https://openalex.org/W1987718699","https://openalex.org/W1988684120","https://openalex.org/W1999721430","https://openalex.org/W2000857598","https://openalex.org/W2008600686","https://openalex.org/W2017341127","https://openalex.org/W2021822750","https://openalex.org/W2025720061","https://openalex.org/W2027613324","https://openalex.org/W2040375181","https://openalex.org/W2042636783","https://openalex.org/W2049781056","https://openalex.org/W2050272999","https://openalex.org/W2053891585","https://openalex.org/W2056102908","https://openalex.org/W2056845939","https://openalex.org/W2058066416","https://openalex.org/W2060078429","https://openalex.org/W2066317317","https://openalex.org/W2077103173","https://openalex.org/W2088257423","https://openalex.org/W2091062382","https://openalex.org/W2091300140","https://openalex.org/W2092990185","https://openalex.org/W2097853731","https://openalex.org/W2097962518","https://openalex.org/W2099901384","https://openalex.org/W2101170002","https://openalex.org/W2101518413","https://openalex.org/W2104358719","https://openalex.org/W2112985617","https://openalex.org/W2113912428","https://openalex.org/W2114100577","https://openalex.org/W2117543256","https://openalex.org/W2117845723","https://openalex.org/W2118713001","https://openalex.org/W2124660815","https://openalex.org/W2125321411","https://openalex.org/W2127874106","https://openalex.org/W2134747174","https://openalex.org/W2135338737","https://openalex.org/W2139621631","https://openalex.org/W2144898279","https://openalex.org/W2145093909","https://openalex.org/W2148451394","https://openalex.org/W2154737502","https://openalex.org/W2259205065","https://openalex.org/W2296410749","https://openalex.org/W2333860887","https://openalex.org/W2515380055","https://openalex.org/W2520745261","https://openalex.org/W2571446175","https://openalex.org/W2582743722","https://openalex.org/W2801734492","https://openalex.org/W3104683063","https://openalex.org/W4242801794","https://openalex.org/W4255113605","https://openalex.org/W4255640106","https://openalex.org/W4292024691","https://openalex.org/W4298927045","https://openalex.org/W4300577719","https://openalex.org/W4300699176","https://openalex.org/W4301730562","https://openalex.org/W4307492541","https://openalex.org/W4362575130","https://openalex.org/W4388319865"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2154737502","https://openalex.org/W2097853731","https://openalex.org/W7098374293","https://openalex.org/W2940635017","https://openalex.org/W2806440676","https://openalex.org/W6948613190","https://openalex.org/W2118713001","https://openalex.org/W4353034036","https://openalex.org/W4415327460","https://openalex.org/W7101139669"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"To":[0],"analyze":[1],"and":[2,19,29,74,83,89,173,198,216],"project":[3],"age-specific":[4],"mortality":[5,123,169],"or":[6,190],"morbidity":[7],"rates":[8,42],"age-period-cohort":[9],"(APC)":[10],"models":[11,52],"are":[12,35,43,61,158,206],"very":[13],"popular.":[14],"Bayesian":[15],"approaches":[16],"facilitate":[17],"estimation":[18],"improve":[20],"predictions":[21],"by":[22,48],"assigning":[23],"smoothing":[24,72],"priors":[25,73],"to":[26,97,107,118,167,208],"age,":[27],"period":[28],"cohort":[30],"effects.":[31,40],"Adjustments":[32],"for":[33,46,94,137,182],"overdispersion":[34,76],"straightforward":[36],"using":[37,223],"additional":[38],"random":[39],"When":[41],"further":[44],"stratified,":[45],"example":[47],"countries,":[49],"multivariate":[50,80],"APC":[51,81,214],"can":[53],"be":[54,142],"used,":[55],"where":[56,179],"differences":[57],"of":[58,127,134,150,193],"stratum-specific":[59,71],"effects":[60],"interpretable":[62],"as":[63,113,196],"log":[64],"relative":[65,110],"risks.":[66],"Here,":[67],"we":[68,180],"incorporate":[69],"correlated":[70,75],"parameters":[77],"into":[78],"the":[79,102,132,145,151,155,176,188,194,201,224],"model,":[82],"use":[84],"Markov":[85],"chain":[86],"Monte":[87],"Carlo":[88],"integrated":[90],"nested":[91],"Laplace":[92],"approximations":[93],"inference.":[95],"Compared":[96],"a":[98,212],"model":[99,215],"without":[100],"correlation,":[101],"new":[103,146],"approach":[104,147,222],"may":[105,141],"lead":[106],"more":[108],"precise":[109],"risk":[111],"estimates,":[112],"shown":[114,163],"in":[115,124,164,170,185],"an":[116,165,217],"application":[117,166],"chronic":[119],"obstructive":[120],"pulmonary":[121],"disease":[122],"three":[125],"regions":[126],"England":[128],"&":[129],"Wales.":[130],"Furthermore,":[131],"imputation":[133],"missing":[135,197],"data":[136],"one":[138],"particular":[139],"stratum":[140],"improved,":[143],"since":[144],"takes":[148],"advantage":[149],"remaining":[152],"strata":[153],"if":[154],"corresponding":[156],"observations":[157,195],"available":[159],"there.":[160],"This":[161],"is":[162],"female":[168],"Denmark,":[171],"Sweden":[172],"Norway":[174],"from":[175,211],"20th":[177],"century,":[178],"treat":[181],"each":[183],"country":[184],"turn":[186],"either":[187],"first":[189],"second":[191],"half":[192],"then":[199],"impute":[200],"omitted":[202],"data.":[203],"The":[204],"projections":[205],"compared":[207],"those":[209],"obtained":[210],"univariate":[213],"extended":[218],"Lee-Carter":[219],"demographic":[220],"forecasting":[221],"proper":[225],"Dawid-Sebastiani":[226],"scoring":[227],"rule.":[228]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":11},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":7}],"updated_date":"2026-10-12T09:40:04.860316","created_date":"2020-11-23T00:00:00"}