{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3097809503","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2011.01219","title":"Estimating County-Level COVID-19 Exponential Growth Rates Using Generalized Random Forests","display_name":"Estimating County-Level COVID-19 Exponential Growth Rates Using Generalized Random Forests","publication_year":2020,"publication_date":"2020-10-31","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3097809503","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2011.01219","mag":"3097809503"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:arx:papers:2011.01219","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/pdf/2011.01219","pdf_url":"http://arxiv.org/pdf/2011.01219","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["arxiv","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2011.01219","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5049064902","display_name":"Zhaowei She","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4190-7974","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4190-7974"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I130701444","display_name":"Georgia Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/01zkghx44","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I130701444"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"She, Zhaowei","raw_affiliation_strings":["Georgia Institute of Technology","#N#\u2021#N#Georgia Institute of Technology#N#"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Georgia Institute of Technology","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I130701444"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"#N#\u2021#N#Georgia Institute of Technology#N#","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I130701444"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5100384098","display_name":"Zilong Wang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1508-3756","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1508-3756"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I130701444","display_name":"Georgia Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/01zkghx44","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I130701444"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Wang, Zilong","raw_affiliation_strings":["Georgia Institute of Technology","#N#\u2021#N#Georgia Institute of Technology#N#"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Georgia Institute of Technology","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I130701444"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"#N#\u2021#N#Georgia Institute of Technology#N#","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I130701444"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5040123651","display_name":"Turgay Ayer","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8720-0280","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8720-0280"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I130701444","display_name":"Georgia Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/01zkghx44","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I130701444"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ayer, Turgay","raw_affiliation_strings":["Georgia Institute of Technology","#N#\u2021#N#Georgia Institute of Technology#N#"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Georgia Institute of Technology","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I130701444"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"#N#\u2021#N#Georgia Institute of Technology#N#","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I130701444"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5045258629","display_name":"Asmae Toumi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6547-4747","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6547-4747"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I130701444","display_name":"Georgia Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/01zkghx44","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I130701444"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I136199984","display_name":"Harvard University","ror":"https://ror.org/03vek6s52","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I136199984"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Toumi, Asmae","raw_affiliation_strings":["Georgia Institute of Technology","Harvard University ,"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Georgia Institute of Technology","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I130701444"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Harvard University ,","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I136199984"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5038177258","display_name":"Jagpreet Chhatwal","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8741-4430","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8741-4430"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I136199984","display_name":"Harvard University","ror":"https://ror.org/03vek6s52","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I136199984"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210087915","display_name":"Massachusetts General Hospital","ror":"https://ror.org/002pd6e78","country_code":"US","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210087915","https://openalex.org/I48633490"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Chhatwal, Jagpreet","raw_affiliation_strings":["Massachusetts General Hospital","Massachusetts General Hospital , Harvard Medical School","Harvard University ,"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Massachusetts General Hospital","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210087915"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Massachusetts General Hospital , Harvard Medical School","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I136199984","https://openalex.org/I4210087915"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Harvard University ,","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I136199984"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":4,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9872999787330627,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9872999787330627,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11819","display_name":"Data-Driven Disease Surveillance","score":0.010400000028312206,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11754","display_name":"SARS-CoV-2 detection and testing","score":0.00019999999494757503,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2725","display_name":"Infectious Diseases"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/covid-19","display_name":"COVID-19 pandemic","score":0.9490000009536743},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/outbreak-detection","display_name":"outbreak detection","score":0.8600000143051147},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/generalized-random-forests","display_name":"generalized random forests","score":0.9789999723434448},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/social-distancing-policy","display_name":"social distancing policy","score":0.7089999914169312},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/county-level-case-counts","display_name":"county-level case counts","score":0.6470000147819519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/epidemic-resurgence","display_name":"epidemic resurgence","score":0.35199999809265137}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.777468204498291},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C75235859","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q582659","display_name":"Exponential growth","level":2,"score":0.5443082451820374},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C169258074","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q245748","display_name":"Random forest","level":2,"score":0.5404300689697266},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151376022","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q168698","display_name":"Exponential function","level":2,"score":0.5021533966064453},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3006700255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q81068910","display_name":"2019-20 coronavirus outbreak","level":3,"score":0.5019819736480713},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3007834351","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q82069695","display_name":"Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)","level":5,"score":0.49178722500801086},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.4327002763748169},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.42433929443359375},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.35910511016845703},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.3400028944015503},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.3338087797164917},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.1803935468196869},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.1124432384967804},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159047783","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7215","display_name":"Virology","level":1,"score":0.11212736368179321},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.09417745471000671},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.08277258276939392},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134306372","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7754","display_name":"Mathematical analysis","level":1,"score":0.07436203956604004},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116675565","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3241045","display_name":"Outbreak","level":2,"score":0.0495452880859375},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142724271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7208","display_name":"Pathology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:arx:papers:2011.01219","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/pdf/2011.01219","pdf_url":"http://arxiv.org/pdf/2011.01219","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2011.01219","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/2011.01219","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2011.01219","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"mag:3121680393","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2011.01219.html","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","raw_type":null},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2011.01219","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2011.01219","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2011.01219","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2011.01219","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/2011.01219","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2011.01219","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.5683000087738037,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","display_name":"Good health and well-being"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3097809503.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3097809503.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":7,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1973275696","https://openalex.org/W1999223777","https://openalex.org/W2099274660","https://openalex.org/W2124758339","https://openalex.org/W2150291618","https://openalex.org/W2730059782","https://openalex.org/W4246607039"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7214911807","https://openalex.org/W4317254666","https://openalex.org/W4220950248","https://openalex.org/W3198540202","https://openalex.org/W4327938316","https://openalex.org/W4409376144","https://openalex.org/W3173057542","https://openalex.org/W4399838022","https://openalex.org/W3044743335","https://openalex.org/W3203823395"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Rapid":[0],"and":[1,57],"accurate":[2],"detection":[3,23],"of":[4,13,16],"community":[5],"outbreaks":[6],"is":[7,24],"critical":[8],"to":[9,48,60],"address":[10],"the":[11,82],"threat":[12],"resurgent":[14],"waves":[15],"COVID-19.":[17],"A":[18],"practical":[19],"challenge":[20],"in":[21,88,104],"outbreak":[22,108],"balancing":[25],"accuracy":[26,33],"vs.":[27],"speed.":[28],"In":[29],"particular,":[30],"while":[31],"estimation":[32],"improves":[34],"with":[35],"longer":[36],"fitting":[37,71],"windows,":[38],"speed":[39],"degrades.":[40],"This":[41,66],"paper":[42],"presents":[43],"a":[44],"machine":[45],"learning":[46],"framework":[47],"balance":[49],"this":[50],"tradeoff":[51],"using":[52],"generalized":[53],"random":[54],"forests":[55],"(GRF),":[56],"applies":[58],"it":[59],"detect":[61],"county":[62,76],"level":[63],"COVID-19":[64,107],"outbreaks.":[65],"algorithm":[67],"chooses":[68],"an":[69],"adaptive":[70],"window":[72,101],"size":[73,102],"for":[74],"each":[75],"based":[77],"on":[78],"relevant":[79],"features":[80],"affecting":[81],"disease":[83],"spread,":[84],"such":[85],"as":[86],"changes":[87],"social":[89],"distancing":[90],"policies.":[91],"Experiment":[92],"results":[93],"show":[94],"that":[95],"our":[96],"method":[97],"outperforms":[98],"any":[99],"non-adaptive":[100],"choices":[103],"7-day":[105],"ahead":[106],"case":[109],"number":[110],"predictions.":[111]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-05T12:25:35.769452","created_date":"2020-11-09T00:00:00"}
