{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3093213621","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-020-01133-5","title":"An R package for an integrated evaluation of statistical approaches to cancer incidence projection","display_name":"An R package for an integrated evaluation of statistical approaches to cancer incidence projection","publication_year":2020,"publication_date":"2020-10-15","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3093213621","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-020-01133-5","mag":"3093213621","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33059585","pmcid":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/7559591"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1186/s12874-020-01133-5","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-020-01133-5","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-020-01133-5","pdf_url":"https://bmcmedresmethodol.biomedcentral.com/track/pdf/10.1186/s12874-020-01133-5","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S185874209","display_name":"BMC Medical Research Methodology","issn_l":"1471-2288","issn":["1471-2288"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-b","doyens","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","oarl","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320256","host_organization_name":"BioMed Central","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320256","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["BioMed Central","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"BMC Medical Research Methodology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","doaj","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://bmcmedresmethodol.biomedcentral.com/track/pdf/10.1186/s12874-020-01133-5","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5058130130","display_name":"Maximilian Knoll","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9037-3980","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9037-3980"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I17937529","display_name":"German Cancer Research Center","ror":"https://ror.org/04cdgtt98","country_code":"DE","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1305996414","https://openalex.org/I17937529"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I223822909","display_name":"Heidelberg University","ror":"https://ror.org/038t36y30","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I223822909"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2802164966","display_name":"University Hospital Heidelberg","ror":"https://ror.org/013czdx64","country_code":"DE","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2802164966"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4391767962","display_name":"Deutsches Konsortium f\u00fcr Translationale Krebsforschung","ror":"https://ror.org/02pqn3g31","country_code":"DE","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4391767962","https://openalex.org/I4405256427"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Maximilian Knoll","raw_affiliation_strings":["Clinical Cooperation Unit Radiation Oncology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Im Neuenheimer Feld 280, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany. m.knoll@dkfz.de","Department of Radiation Oncology, Heidelberg University Hospital, Im Neuenheimer Feld 400, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany. m.knoll@dkfz.de","Faculty of Biosciences, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany. m.knoll@dkfz.de","German Cancer Consortium (DKTK) Core Center Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany. m.knoll@dkfz.de","Department of Radiation Oncology, Heidelberg University Hospital, Im Neuenheimer Feld 400, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9037-3980","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Clinical Cooperation Unit Radiation Oncology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Im Neuenheimer Feld 280, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany. m.knoll@dkfz.de","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I17937529"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Radiation Oncology, Heidelberg University Hospital, Im Neuenheimer Feld 400, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany. m.knoll@dkfz.de","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2802164966"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Faculty of Biosciences, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany. m.knoll@dkfz.de","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I223822909"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"German Cancer Consortium (DKTK) Core Center Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany. m.knoll@dkfz.de","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4391767962"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Radiation Oncology, Heidelberg University Hospital, Im Neuenheimer Feld 400, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2802164966"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5040825839","display_name":"Jennifer Furkel","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1964-4098","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1964-4098"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I17937529","display_name":"German Cancer Research Center","ror":"https://ror.org/04cdgtt98","country_code":"DE","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1305996414","https://openalex.org/I17937529"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I223822909","display_name":"Heidelberg University","ror":"https://ror.org/038t36y30","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I223822909"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2802164966","display_name":"University Hospital Heidelberg","ror":"https://ror.org/013czdx64","country_code":"DE","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2802164966"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4391767962","display_name":"Deutsches Konsortium f\u00fcr Translationale Krebsforschung","ror":"https://ror.org/02pqn3g31","country_code":"DE","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4391767962","https://openalex.org/I4405256427"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jennifer Furkel","raw_affiliation_strings":["Clinical Cooperation Unit Radiation Oncology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Im Neuenheimer Feld 280, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany","Department of Radiation Oncology, Heidelberg University Hospital, Im Neuenheimer Feld 400, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany","Faculty of Biosciences, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany","German Cancer Consortium (DKTK) Core Center Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Clinical Cooperation Unit Radiation Oncology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Im Neuenheimer Feld 280, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I17937529"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Radiation Oncology, Heidelberg University Hospital, Im Neuenheimer Feld 400, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2802164966"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Faculty of Biosciences, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I223822909"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"German Cancer Consortium (DKTK) Core Center Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4391767962"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5078003238","display_name":"J\u00fcrgen Debus","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6411-4811","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6411-4811"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I17937529","display_name":"German Cancer Research Center","ror":"https://ror.org/04cdgtt98","country_code":"DE","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1305996414","https://openalex.org/I17937529"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2802164966","display_name":"University Hospital Heidelberg","ror":"https://ror.org/013czdx64","country_code":"DE","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2802164966"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4391767962","display_name":"Deutsches Konsortium f\u00fcr Translationale Krebsforschung","ror":"https://ror.org/02pqn3g31","country_code":"DE","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4391767962","https://openalex.org/I4405256427"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"J\u00fcrgen Debus","raw_affiliation_strings":["Clinical Cooperation Unit Radiation Oncology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Im Neuenheimer Feld 280, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany","Department of Radiation Oncology, Heidelberg University Hospital, Im Neuenheimer Feld 400, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany","German Cancer Consortium (DKTK) Core Center Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Clinical Cooperation Unit Radiation Oncology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Im Neuenheimer Feld 280, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I17937529"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Radiation Oncology, Heidelberg University Hospital, Im Neuenheimer Feld 400, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2802164966"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"German Cancer Consortium (DKTK) Core Center Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4391767962"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5075116222","display_name":"Amir Abdollahi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8016-5897","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8016-5897"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I17937529","display_name":"German Cancer Research Center","ror":"https://ror.org/04cdgtt98","country_code":"DE","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1305996414","https://openalex.org/I17937529"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2802164966","display_name":"University Hospital Heidelberg","ror":"https://ror.org/013czdx64","country_code":"DE","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2802164966"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4391767962","display_name":"Deutsches Konsortium f\u00fcr Translationale Krebsforschung","ror":"https://ror.org/02pqn3g31","country_code":"DE","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4391767962","https://openalex.org/I4405256427"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Amir Abdollahi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Clinical Cooperation Unit Radiation Oncology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Im Neuenheimer Feld 280, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany","Department of Radiation Oncology, Heidelberg University Hospital, Im Neuenheimer Feld 400, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany","German Cancer Consortium (DKTK) Core Center Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Clinical Cooperation Unit Radiation Oncology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Im Neuenheimer Feld 280, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I17937529"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Radiation Oncology, Heidelberg University Hospital, Im Neuenheimer Feld 400, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2802164966"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"German Cancer Consortium (DKTK) Core Center Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4391767962"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5083896047","display_name":"Andr\u00e9 Karch","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3014-8543","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3014-8543"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I22465464","display_name":"University of M\u00fcnster","ror":"https://ror.org/00pd74e08","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I22465464"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Andr\u00e9 Karch","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University of Muenster, Albert-Schweitzer-Campus 1, 48149, Muenster, Germany"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University of Muenster, Albert-Schweitzer-Campus 1, 48149, Muenster, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I22465464"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5011327623","display_name":"Christian Stock","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3493-3234","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3493-3234"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I17937529","display_name":"German Cancer Research Center","ror":"https://ror.org/04cdgtt98","country_code":"DE","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1305996414","https://openalex.org/I17937529"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I223822909","display_name":"Heidelberg University","ror":"https://ror.org/038t36y30","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I223822909"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Christian Stock","raw_affiliation_strings":["Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany","Institute of Medical Biometry and Informatics (IMBI), University of Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 130.3, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I17937529"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute of Medical Biometry and Informatics (IMBI), University of Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 130.3, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I223822909"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":5,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5058130130"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I17937529","https://openalex.org/I223822909","https://openalex.org/I2802164966","https://openalex.org/I4391767962"],"apc_list":{"value":2490,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2490},"apc_paid":{"value":2490,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2490},"fwci":4.0166,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":380,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.95735809,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":97,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":"20","issue":"1","first_page":"257","last_page":"257"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10556","display_name":"Global Cancer Incidence and Screening","score":0.9970999956130981,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2730","display_name":"Oncology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10556","display_name":"Global Cancer Incidence and Screening","score":0.9970999956130981,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2730","display_name":"Oncology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14374","display_name":"Statistical Methods in Epidemiology","score":0.0019000000320374966,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12011","display_name":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","score":0.0005000000237487257,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cancer-incidence-projections","display_name":"cancer incidence projections","score":0.9900000095367432},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/age-period-cohort-model","display_name":"age-period-cohort model","score":0.9940000176429749},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/integrated-nested-laplace-approximation","display_name":"integrated nested Laplace approximation","score":0.8740000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bias-and-precision","display_name":"bias and precision","score":0.746999979019165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/model-performance-comparison","display_name":"model performance comparison","score":0.5509999990463257},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/generalized-additive-models","display_name":"generalized additive models","score":0.6639999747276306}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2992704333","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5382717","display_name":"Cancer incidence","level":3,"score":0.6411759853363037},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C57493831","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3134666","display_name":"Projection (relational algebra)","level":2,"score":0.6007559895515442},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778527826","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1787017","display_name":"Cancer registry","level":3,"score":0.5949151515960693},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.541522741317749},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.5289791822433472},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C61511704","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1671857","display_name":"Incidence (geometry)","level":2,"score":0.5233689546585083},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114289077","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3284399","display_name":"Statistical model","level":2,"score":0.47585341334342957},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.4467077851295471},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C22243797","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2058297","display_name":"Laplace's method","level":3,"score":0.42319053411483765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4160114526748657},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C61797465","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1188986","display_name":"Term (time)","level":2,"score":0.41130900382995605},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.401032030582428},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121608353","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12078","display_name":"Cancer","level":2,"score":0.3503458499908447},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.3462219834327698},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.30866724252700806},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11413529","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8366","display_name":"Algorithm","level":1,"score":0.26800215244293213},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.24193966388702393},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126322002","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11180","display_name":"Internal medicine","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2524010","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8087","display_name":"Geometry","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D000328","descriptor_name":"Adult","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D001499","descriptor_name":"Bayes Theorem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005858","descriptor_name":"Germany","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D009369","descriptor_name":"Neoplasms","qualifier_ui":"Q000175","qualifier_name":"diagnosis","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D009369","descriptor_name":"Neoplasms","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D015233","descriptor_name":"Models, Statistical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D015994","descriptor_name":"Incidence","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D055815","descriptor_name":"Young Adult","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false}],"locations_count":8,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1186/s12874-020-01133-5","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-020-01133-5","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-020-01133-5","pdf_url":"https://bmcmedresmethodol.biomedcentral.com/track/pdf/10.1186/s12874-020-01133-5","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S185874209","display_name":"BMC Medical Research Methodology","issn_l":"1471-2288","issn":["1471-2288"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-b","doyens","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","oarl","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320256","host_organization_name":"BioMed Central","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320256","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["BioMed Central","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"BMC Medical Research Methodology","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-34369/v1","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-34369/v1","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-34369/v1","pdf_url":"https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-34369/v1.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525896","display_name":"Research Square","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Research Square","raw_type":"posted-content"},{"id":"doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-34369/v2","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-34369/v2","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-34369/v2","pdf_url":"https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-34369/v2.pdf?c=1597980958000","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525896","display_name":"Research Square","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Research Square","raw_type":"posted-content"},{"id":"doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-34369/v3","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-34369/v3","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-34369/v3","pdf_url":"https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-34369/v3.pdf?c=1631856432000","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525896","display_name":"Research Square","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Research Square","raw_type":"posted-content"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:7559591","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/7559591","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"BMC Med Res Methodol","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmid:33059585","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33059585","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"BMC medical research methodology","raw_type":"Journal Article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:fc5c1cb3435d42d28fe07d9a8a0b890f","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/fc5c1cb3435d42d28fe07d9a8a0b890f","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"BMC Medical Research Methodology, Vol 20, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2020)","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:frl.publisso.de:frl:6466168","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://repository.publisso.de/resource/frl:6466168","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402606","display_name":"Informationszentrum Lebenswissenschaften (ZB MED)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4210112663","host_organization_name":"ZB MED - Information Centre for Life Sciences","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210112663"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"BMC medical research methodology, 20(1):257","raw_type":"Zeitschriftenartikel"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1186/s12874-020-01133-5","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-020-01133-5","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-020-01133-5","pdf_url":"https://bmcmedresmethodol.biomedcentral.com/track/pdf/10.1186/s12874-020-01133-5","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S185874209","display_name":"BMC Medical Research Methodology","issn_l":"1471-2288","issn":["1471-2288"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-b","doyens","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","oarl","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320256","host_organization_name":"BioMed Central","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320256","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["BioMed Central","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"BMC Medical Research Methodology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Good health and well-being","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","score":0.8560000061988831}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G2968586230","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"NCT PRO-2015.21","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320326443","funder_display_name":"Nationales Centrum f\u00fcr Tumorerkrankungen Heidelberg"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G3476746612","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"DFG UNITE SFB-1389","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320879","funder_display_name":"Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320310693","display_name":"Deutsches Krebsforschungszentrum","ror":"https://ror.org/04cdgtt98"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320879","display_name":"Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft","ror":"https://ror.org/018mejw64"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320326443","display_name":"Nationales Centrum f\u00fcr Tumorerkrankungen Heidelberg","ror":"https://ror.org/01txwsw02"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3093213621.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3093213621.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":30,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W45857080","https://openalex.org/W92766923","https://openalex.org/W1963758012","https://openalex.org/W1967247922","https://openalex.org/W2015631494","https://openalex.org/W2028268806","https://openalex.org/W2072633261","https://openalex.org/W2077103173","https://openalex.org/W2101134846","https://openalex.org/W2106578604","https://openalex.org/W2107703091","https://openalex.org/W2108687933","https://openalex.org/W2124387763","https://openalex.org/W2133830458","https://openalex.org/W2136927639","https://openalex.org/W2137069883","https://openalex.org/W2144898279","https://openalex.org/W2165656076","https://openalex.org/W2167834874","https://openalex.org/W2284583894","https://openalex.org/W2300464682","https://openalex.org/W2340515955","https://openalex.org/W2534947733","https://openalex.org/W2585253120","https://openalex.org/W2770322578","https://openalex.org/W2898628163","https://openalex.org/W2911188335","https://openalex.org/W2922985761","https://openalex.org/W2969492445","https://openalex.org/W3112717819"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2585253120","https://openalex.org/W6920682893","https://openalex.org/W2758497246","https://openalex.org/W2481494435","https://openalex.org/W4366463189","https://openalex.org/W2127105291","https://openalex.org/W6986535607","https://openalex.org/W2165598087","https://openalex.org/W2108947105","https://openalex.org/W2117845723"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"BACKGROUND:":[0],"Projection":[1],"of":[2,16,87,90,124,131,236],"future":[3],"cancer":[4,11,33,94,143,237],"incidence":[5,95,238],"is":[6,68,79,117],"an":[7,99,120],"important":[8],"task":[9],"in":[10,104,171,250,267],"epidemiology.":[12],"The":[13,228],"results":[14,256],"are":[15,39,53,257],"interest":[17],"also":[18],"for":[19,41,62,150,160,182,189,196,204],"biomedical":[20],"research":[21],"and":[22,70,129,186,217,244],"public":[23],"health":[24],"policy.":[25],"Age-Period-Cohort":[26],"(APC)":[27],"models,":[28,210],"usually":[29],"based":[30],"on":[31,59,174,262],"long-term":[32,51,139],"registry":[34],"data":[35,52,67,140],"(>":[36,193],"20":[37],"yrs),":[38],"established":[40],"such":[42,207],"projections.":[43],"In":[44],"many":[45],"countries":[46],"(including":[47],"Germany),":[48],"however,":[49],"nationwide":[50],"not":[54],"yet":[55],"available.":[56],"General":[57],"guidance":[58,261],"statistical":[60,91,264],"approaches":[61,78,92],"projections":[63],"using":[64],"rather":[65],"short-term":[66],"challenging":[69],"software":[71],"to":[72,75,93,252,259],"enable":[73,83],"researchers":[74],"easily":[76],"compare":[77],"lacking.":[80],"METHODS:":[81],"To":[82],"a":[84,233,268],"comparative":[85],"analysis":[86],"the":[88,253],"performance":[89,249],"projection,":[96],"we":[97],"developed":[98],"R":[100,230],"package":[101,231],"(incAnalysis),":[102],"supporting":[103],"particular":[105],"Bayesian":[106,161],"models":[107,134,163,168,177,206,213,220],"fitted":[108],"by":[109,119,136],"Integrated":[110],"Nested":[111],"Laplace":[112],"Approximations":[113],"(INLA).":[114],"Its":[115],"use":[116],"demonstrated":[118],"extensive":[121],"empirical":[122,255],"evaluation":[123],"operating":[125],"characteristics":[126],"(bias,":[127],"coverage":[128,154,172],"precision)":[130],"potentially":[132],"applicable":[133],"differing":[135],"complexity.":[137],"Observed":[138],"from":[141],"three":[142],"registries":[144],"(SEER-9,":[145],"NORDCAN,":[146],"Saarland)":[147],"was":[148,155,202],"used":[149],"benchmarking.":[151],"RESULTS:":[152],"Overall,":[153],"high":[156],"(mostly":[157],">":[158],"90%)":[159],"APC":[162],"(BAPC),":[164],"whereas":[165],"less":[166],"complex":[167,205],"showed":[169],"differences":[170],"dependent":[173],"projection-period.":[175],"Intercept-only":[176],"yielded":[178],"values":[179],"below":[180],"20%":[181],"coverage.":[183],"Bias":[184],"increased":[185],"precision":[187],"decreased":[188],"longer":[190],"projection":[191,240,265],"periods":[192],"15":[194],"years)":[195],"all":[197],"except":[198],"intercept-only":[199],"models.":[200],"Precision":[201],"lowest":[203],"as":[208],"BAPC":[209],"generalized":[211,218],"additive":[212],"with":[214,221],"multivariate":[215],"smoothers":[216],"linear":[219],"age":[222],"x":[223],"period":[224],"interaction":[225],"effects.":[226],"CONCLUSION:":[227],"incAnalysis":[229],"allows":[232],"straightforward":[234],"comparison":[235],"rate":[239],"approaches.":[241],"Further":[242],"detailed":[243],"targeted":[245],"investigations":[246],"into":[247],"model":[248],"addition":[251],"presented":[254],"recommended":[258],"derive":[260],"appropriate":[263],"methods":[266],"given":[269],"setting.":[270]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":82},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":161},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":97},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":23},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":12},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":5}],"updated_date":"2026-11-06T12:05:46.655746","created_date":"2020-10-22T00:00:00"}