{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3092264974","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.4169","title":"Predicting quantity and quality of life with the Future Elderly Model","display_name":"Predicting quantity and quality of life with the Future Elderly Model","publication_year":2020,"publication_date":"2020-10-07","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3092264974","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.4169","mag":"3092264974","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33026140","pmcid":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/8075077"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1002/hec.4169","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.4169","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.4169","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S145200904","display_name":"Health Economics","issn_l":"1057-9230","issn":["1057-9230","1099-1050"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a-star","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-b","doyens","fnege-2","jufo-2","ki-jl-2","medline","norway-2","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Health Economics","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/8075077","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5045986108","display_name":"Duncan Ermini Leaf","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7500-9689","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7500-9689"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1174212","display_name":"University of Southern California","ror":"https://ror.org/03taz7m60","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1174212"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Duncan Ermini Leaf","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Southern California, Leonard D. Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics, Los Angeles, California, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7500-9689","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Southern California, Leonard D. Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics, Los Angeles, California, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1174212"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5086722669","display_name":"Bryan Tysinger","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8497-3664","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8497-3664"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1174212","display_name":"University of Southern California","ror":"https://ror.org/03taz7m60","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1174212"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Bryan Tysinger","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Southern California, Leonard D. Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics, Los Angeles, California, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8497-3664","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Southern California, Leonard D. Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics, Los Angeles, California, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1174212"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5070921176","display_name":"Dana P. Goldman","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8498-6396","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8498-6396"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1174212","display_name":"University of Southern California","ror":"https://ror.org/03taz7m60","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1174212"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Dana P. Goldman","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Southern California, Leonard D. Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics, Los Angeles, California, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8498-6396","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Southern California, Leonard D. Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics, Los Angeles, California, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1174212"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5070010392","display_name":"Darius Noshir Lakdawalla","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5934-8042","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5934-8042"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1174212","display_name":"University of Southern California","ror":"https://ror.org/03taz7m60","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1174212"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Darius N. Lakdawalla","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Southern California, Leonard D. Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics, Los Angeles, California, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5934-8042","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Southern California, Leonard D. Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics, Los Angeles, California, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1174212"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5045986108"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1174212"],"apc_list":{"value":3500,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3500},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":3.8053,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":31,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.94179269,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":93,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"30","issue":"S1","first_page":"52","last_page":"79"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12011","display_name":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","score":0.9434000253677368,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12011","display_name":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","score":0.9434000253677368,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14509","display_name":"demographic modeling and climate adaptation","score":0.0544000007212162,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11631","display_name":"Retirement, Disability, and Employment","score":0.0006000000284984708,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/microsimulation-model","display_name":"microsimulation model","score":0.7749999761581421},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mortality-forecasting","display_name":"mortality forecasting","score":0.8159999847412109},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/longevity","display_name":"longevity","score":0.6740000247955322},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/quality-of-life","display_name":"quality of life","score":0.8569999933242798},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/actuarial-models","display_name":"actuarial modeling","score":0.7129999995231628},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/model-validation","display_name":"model validation","score":0.8740000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/health-and-retirement-study","display_name":"Health and Retirement Study","score":0.9150000214576721},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/older-adults","display_name":"older adults","score":0.7429999709129333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/policy-simulation","display_name":"policy simulation","score":0.6650000214576721}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776759703","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1066907","display_name":"Longevity","level":2,"score":0.6587815880775452},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780015235","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1934035","display_name":"Microsimulation","level":2,"score":0.6245578527450562},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5441939830780029},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781386606","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6673769","display_name":"Longevity risk","level":3,"score":0.49000564217567444},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.4015681743621826},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.3970821499824524},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.3549787998199463},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.3415243923664093},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.23309257626533508},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.21490001678466797},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C74909509","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10387","display_name":"Gerontology","level":1,"score":0.2141270935535431},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.20018041133880615},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C22212356","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q775325","display_name":"Transport engineering","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D000368","descriptor_name":"Aged","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006304","descriptor_name":"Health Status","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008136","descriptor_name":"Longevity","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D011788","descriptor_name":"Quality of Life","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D012179","descriptor_name":"Retirement","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false}],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1002/hec.4169","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.4169","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.4169","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S145200904","display_name":"Health Economics","issn_l":"1057-9230","issn":["1057-9230","1099-1050"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a-star","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-b","doyens","fnege-2","jufo-2","ki-jl-2","medline","norway-2","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Health Economics","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:33026140","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33026140","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Health economics","raw_type":"Journal Article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:8075077","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/8075077","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Health Econ","raw_type":"Text"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:8075077","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/8075077","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Health Econ","raw_type":"Text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Good health and well-being","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","score":0.5683000087738037}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G1560698330","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"P30AG024968; R01AG062277","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337337","funder_display_name":"National Institute on Aging"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G3949168133","display_name":"Ensuring Access to Novel Alzheimer\u2019s and Dementia Treatments: Evaluating Innovative Payment Approaches","funder_award_id":"R01AG062277","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337337","funder_display_name":"National Institute on Aging"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G9000879874","display_name":"University of Southern California Alzheimer\u2019s Disease (AD) and Alzheimer\u2019s Disease-Related Dementias (ADRD) Resource Center for Minority Aging Research (USC AD/ADRD RCMAR)","funder_award_id":"P30AG043073","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337337","funder_display_name":"National Institute on Aging"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G9000887882","display_name":"Health and Retirement Study: Yrs 35-40","funder_award_id":"U01AG009740","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337337","funder_display_name":"National Institute on Aging"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G9000911830","display_name":"USC-Yale Roybal Center for Behavioral Interventions in Aging","funder_award_id":"P30AG024968","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337337","funder_display_name":"National Institute on Aging"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337337","display_name":"National Institute on Aging","ror":"https://ror.org/049v75w11"}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":34,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1981357862","https://openalex.org/W2006353511","https://openalex.org/W2019169271","https://openalex.org/W2038705334","https://openalex.org/W2070483435","https://openalex.org/W2070727798","https://openalex.org/W2074220981","https://openalex.org/W2093168507","https://openalex.org/W2096782143","https://openalex.org/W2120871839","https://openalex.org/W2153836018","https://openalex.org/W2302487047","https://openalex.org/W2403327362","https://openalex.org/W2405605510","https://openalex.org/W2411850365","https://openalex.org/W2413965547","https://openalex.org/W2417209333","https://openalex.org/W2558956167","https://openalex.org/W2586582171","https://openalex.org/W2612464660","https://openalex.org/W2623331694","https://openalex.org/W2626887013","https://openalex.org/W2770795939","https://openalex.org/W2790822079","https://openalex.org/W2801689578","https://openalex.org/W2906605908","https://openalex.org/W2912504894","https://openalex.org/W2973759191","https://openalex.org/W2975416402","https://openalex.org/W3044347796","https://openalex.org/W3109233120","https://openalex.org/W3123363126","https://openalex.org/W4226456790","https://openalex.org/W6645736948"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4226213786","https://openalex.org/W4281853559","https://openalex.org/W4295908345","https://openalex.org/W4246586107","https://openalex.org/W4226278902","https://openalex.org/W6983494458","https://openalex.org/W4413453173","https://openalex.org/W1114216002","https://openalex.org/W2945804775","https://openalex.org/W7052090121"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0],"Future":[1],"Elderly":[2],"Model":[3],"(FEM)":[4],"is":[5],"a":[6,16,65],"microsimulation":[7,26],"model":[8],"designed":[9],"to":[10,22,91,111],"forecast":[11],"health":[12],"status,":[13],"longevity,":[14],"and":[15,34,59,80,88,95,116,135,150],"variety":[17],"of":[18,44,55,61,67,75,103,114,148,173],"economic":[19],"outcomes.":[20],"Compared":[21],"traditional":[23,157],"actuarial":[24,112,158,171,185],"models,":[25],"models":[27],"provide":[28],"greater":[29],"opportunities":[30],"for":[31],"policy":[32,177],"forecasting":[33,49],"richer":[35],"detail,":[36],"but":[37],"they":[38],"typically":[39],"build":[40],"upon":[41],"smaller":[42],"samples":[43],"data":[45,76],"that":[46,124,180],"may":[47],"mitigate":[48],"accuracy.":[50],"We":[51,105,122],"perform":[52],"validation":[53],"analyses":[54],"the":[56,68,78,92,100,108,119,142,163],"FEM's":[57,143],"mortality":[58,87,94,115,133],"quality":[60,147],"life":[62,149],"forecasts":[63,113,172],"using":[64],"version":[66],"FEM":[69,86,109,125,164],"estimated":[70],"exclusively":[71],"on":[72],"early":[73],"waves":[74],"from":[77,156],"Health":[79],"Retirement":[81],"Study.":[82],"First,":[83],"we":[84,140],"compare":[85,107],"longevity":[89,96,117],"projections":[90,126],"actual":[93],"experience":[97],"observed":[98,132],"over":[99],"same":[101,120],"period":[102],"time.":[104,121],"also":[106],"results":[110],"during":[118],"find":[123],"are":[127,181],"generally":[128],"in":[129,184],"line":[130],"with":[131],"rates":[134],"closely":[136],"match":[137],"longevity.":[138],"Then,":[139],"assess":[141],"performance":[144],"at":[145,166],"predicting":[146],"longitudinal":[151],"outcomes,":[152],"two":[153],"features":[154,179],"missing":[155],"models.":[159,186],"Our":[160],"analysis":[161],"suggests":[162],"performs":[165],"least":[167],"as":[168,170],"well":[169],"mortality,":[174],"while":[175],"providing":[176],"simulation":[178],"not":[182],"available":[183]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":5}],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2020-10-15T00:00:00"}