{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3091908809","doi":"https://doi.org/10.17509/ijost.v5i3.26139","title":"Real-time Forecasting of the COVID-19 Epidemic using the Richards Model in South Sulawesi, Indonesia","display_name":"Real-time Forecasting of the COVID-19 Epidemic using the Richards Model in South Sulawesi, Indonesia","publication_year":2020,"publication_date":"2020-07-02","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3091908809","doi":"https://doi.org/10.17509/ijost.v5i3.26139","mag":"3091908809"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.17509/ijost.v5i3.26139","doi":"https://doi.org/10.17509/ijost.v5i3.26139","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.17509/ijost.v5i3.26139","pdf_url":"https://ejournal.upi.edu/index.php/ijost/article/download/26139/pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210206057","display_name":"Indonesian Journal of Science and Technology","issn_l":"2527-8045","issn":["2527-8045","2528-1410"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","poland-20","russia-white-list-1"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315239","host_organization_name":"Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315239"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia Press"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Indonesian Journal of Science and Technology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"diamond","oa_url":"https://ejournal.upi.edu/index.php/ijost/article/download/26139/pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5033074395","display_name":"Faihatuz Zuhairoh","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7524-3160","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7524-3160"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I165230279","display_name":"Universitas Gadjah Mada","ror":"https://ror.org/03ke6d638","country_code":"ID","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I165230279"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4405254617","display_name":"Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Keguruan Dan Ilmu Pendidikan Yayasan Pendidikan Ujung Pandang","ror":"https://ror.org/0215tyt79","country_code":"ID","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4405254617"]}],"countries":["ID"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Faihatuz Zuhairoh","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Science, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta, Indonesia\r\nMathematics Education, STKIP YPUP Makassar, Indonesia","Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Science, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta, Indonesia\nMathematics Education, STKIP YPUP Makassar, Indonesia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Science, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta, Indonesia\r\nMathematics Education, STKIP YPUP Makassar, Indonesia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I165230279","https://openalex.org/I4405254617"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Science, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta, Indonesia\nMathematics Education, STKIP YPUP Makassar, Indonesia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I165230279","https://openalex.org/I4405254617"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5033128828","display_name":"Dedi Rosadi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2689-253X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2689-253X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I165230279","display_name":"Universitas Gadjah Mada","ror":"https://ror.org/03ke6d638","country_code":"ID","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I165230279"]}],"countries":["ID"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Dedi Rosadi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Science, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta, Indonesia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Science, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta, Indonesia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I165230279"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.8173,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":26,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.82298164,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"5","issue":"3","first_page":"456","last_page":"462"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13032","display_name":"COVID-19 Prevention and Impact","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10482","display_name":"Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2739","display_name":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/covid-19","display_name":"COVID-19 pandemic","score":0.9480000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/epidemic-forecasting","display_name":"epidemic forecasting","score":0.9629999995231628},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/richards-growth-model","display_name":"Richards model","score":0.9670000076293945},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/logistic-growth-model","display_name":"logistic growth model","score":0.8650000095367432},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cumulative-case-counts","display_name":"cumulative case counts","score":0.593999981880188},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/epidemic-peak-prediction","display_name":"epidemic peak prediction","score":0.8159999847412109},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/social-restrictions","display_name":"social restrictions","score":0.8610000014305115},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/south-sulawesi","display_name":"South Sulawesi","score":0.8870000243186951}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89623803","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12184","display_name":"Pandemic","level":5,"score":0.807402491569519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.7919949293136597},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779207338","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9240","display_name":"Indonesian","level":2,"score":0.71065753698349},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.5359035134315491},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778137410","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2732820","display_name":"Government (linguistics)","level":2,"score":0.5125710964202881},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C180802074","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1052379","display_name":"Logistic function","level":2,"score":0.49625474214553833},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2993675096","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q20716634","display_name":"Indonesian government","level":3,"score":0.4575459361076355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3007834351","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q82069695","display_name":"Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)","level":5,"score":0.4180234670639038},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.401347279548645},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.3838611841201782},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.23420852422714233},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.10217022895812988},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142724271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7208","display_name":"Pathology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41895202","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8162","display_name":"Linguistics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.17509/ijost.v5i3.26139","doi":"https://doi.org/10.17509/ijost.v5i3.26139","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.17509/ijost.v5i3.26139","pdf_url":"https://ejournal.upi.edu/index.php/ijost/article/download/26139/pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210206057","display_name":"Indonesian Journal of Science and Technology","issn_l":"2527-8045","issn":["2527-8045","2528-1410"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","poland-20","russia-white-list-1"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315239","host_organization_name":"Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315239"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia Press"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Indonesian Journal of Science and Technology","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.17509/ijost.v5i3.26139","doi":"https://doi.org/10.17509/ijost.v5i3.26139","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.17509/ijost.v5i3.26139","pdf_url":"https://ejournal.upi.edu/index.php/ijost/article/download/26139/pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210206057","display_name":"Indonesian Journal of Science and Technology","issn_l":"2527-8045","issn":["2527-8045","2528-1410"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","poland-20","russia-white-list-1"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315239","host_organization_name":"Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315239"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia Press"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Indonesian Journal of Science and Technology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Good health and well-being","score":0.504800021648407,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3"}],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"display_name":"Good health and well-being","score":0.8600000143051147,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3091908809.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3091908809.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":13,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1587533477","https://openalex.org/W2114123573","https://openalex.org/W2142941324","https://openalex.org/W2506821201","https://openalex.org/W2742596141","https://openalex.org/W3008119221","https://openalex.org/W3008629533","https://openalex.org/W3022244974","https://openalex.org/W3034694860","https://openalex.org/W3092280280","https://openalex.org/W3134815578","https://openalex.org/W4248017271","https://openalex.org/W6669704189"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3204780408","https://openalex.org/W3125596490","https://openalex.org/W3121186135","https://openalex.org/W3167898685","https://openalex.org/W4292097865","https://openalex.org/W2377573437","https://openalex.org/W4385612224","https://openalex.org/W3127323648","https://openalex.org/W4389051362","https://openalex.org/W1759598006"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0,59],"paper":[1,60,83],"discussed":[2],"Real-time":[3],"Forecasting":[4],"of":[5,13,27,53,69,85,95,107,118,171,181,199],"the":[6,25,34,39,51,62,82,92,96,103,119,162,169,176,182,187,190,197,201,206,209,218,237],"COVID-19":[7,14,28,41,108,219,239],"Epidemic":[8],"using":[9],"daily":[10],"cumulative":[11,105],"cases":[12,29,42,109,155,174],"in":[15,30,33,43,81,138,221,227,241],"South":[16,31,139,222,242],"Sulawesi.":[17],"Our":[18,99,230],"aim":[19],"is":[20,66,121,194,196],"to":[21,113,123,127,132,165,214,225],"make":[22],"model":[23,74],"for":[24],"growth":[26,73],"Sulawesi":[32,140,223,243],"top":[35],"5":[36],"provinces":[37],"with":[38,75,217],"largest":[40],"Indonesia":[44],"and":[45,55],"predict":[46],"when":[47,56,200],"this":[48],"pandemic":[49,120,177,183,202,220,240],"reaches":[50],"peak":[52,117,184],"spread":[54],"it":[57],"ends.":[58,178],"used":[61,80],"Richards":[63],"model,":[64],"which":[65,148,167],"an":[67],"extension":[68],"a":[70,142],"simple":[71],"logistic":[72],"additional":[76,154],"scaling":[77],"parameters.":[78],"Data":[79],"as":[84,189],"June":[86,126],"24,":[87],"2020":[88,129],"were":[89],"taken":[90],"from":[91,125],"official":[93],"website":[94],"Indonesian":[97,191],"government.":[98],"results":[100,180],"are":[101,152,186],"that":[102,150,244],"maximum":[104],"number":[106],"has":[110],"reached":[111],"10,000":[112],"12,000":[114],"cases.":[115],"The":[116,136,179],"estimated":[122],"occur":[124],"July":[128],"while":[130],"continuing":[131],"impose":[133],"social":[134],"restrictions.":[135],"condition":[137],"shows":[141],"sloping":[143],"curve":[144,163],"around":[145],"October":[146],"2020,":[147],"means":[149],"there":[151],"still":[153],"but":[156],"not":[157],"significant.":[158],"When":[159],"entering":[160],"November,":[161],"starts":[164],"flat":[166],"indicates":[168],"addition":[170],"very":[172],"small":[173],"until":[175],"prediction":[185,198],"same":[188],"data;":[192],"what":[193],"different":[195],"will":[203,212],"end.":[204],"In":[205],"best-case":[207],"scenario,":[208],"current":[210],"data":[211],"tend":[213],"slow":[215],"down,":[216],"expected":[224],"end":[226],"November":[228],"2020.":[229],"modeling":[231],"procedure":[232],"can":[233],"provide":[234],"information":[235],"about":[236,251],"ongoing":[238],"may":[245],"facilitate":[246],"real-time":[247],"public":[248],"health":[249],"responses":[250],"future":[252],"disease":[253],"outbreaks.":[254]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-10-16T09:59:22.235173","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
