{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3087547568","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11091002","title":"Advanced Global Model Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Formation, and Intensity Predictions along Medium-Range Tracks","display_name":"Advanced Global Model Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Formation, and Intensity Predictions along Medium-Range Tracks","publication_year":2020,"publication_date":"2020-09-18","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3087547568","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11091002","mag":"3087547568"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/atmos11091002","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11091002","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11091002","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/9/1002/pdf?version=1600691425","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S946213959","display_name":"Atmosphere","issn_l":"2073-4433","issn":["2073-4433"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Atmosphere","raw_type":"journal-article"},"parent_works":[],"lineage":["https://openalex.org/W3087547568"],"child_works_count":0,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/9/1002/pdf?version=1600691425","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5036679938","display_name":"Russell L. Elsberry","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I888729015","display_name":"University of Colorado Colorado Springs","ror":"https://ror.org/054spjc55","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I888729015"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Russell L. Elsberry","raw_affiliation_strings":["Trauma, Health and Hazards Center, University of Colorado, Colorado Springs, CO 80918, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Trauma, Health and Hazards Center, University of Colorado, Colorado Springs, CO 80918, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I888729015"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5003810613","display_name":"Hsiao\u2010Chung Tsai","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8276-9416","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8276-9416"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I107470533","display_name":"Tamkang University","ror":"https://ror.org/04tft4718","country_code":"TW","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I107470533"]}],"countries":["TW"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Hsiao-Chung Tsai","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Tamkang University, New Taipei City 251301, Taiwan"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8276-9416","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Tamkang University, New Taipei City 251301, Taiwan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I107470533"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5075031060","display_name":"Wei-Chia Chin","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I107470533","display_name":"Tamkang University","ror":"https://ror.org/04tft4718","country_code":"TW","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I107470533"]}],"countries":["TW"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Wei-Chia Chin","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Tamkang University, New Taipei City 251301, Taiwan"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Tamkang University, New Taipei City 251301, Taiwan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I107470533"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5046426985","display_name":"Timothy P. Marchok","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5703-2861","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5703-2861"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I191217947","display_name":"NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory","ror":"https://ror.org/03vmn1898","country_code":"US","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1308126019","https://openalex.org/I1343035065","https://openalex.org/I191217947","https://openalex.org/I2802992173"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Timothy P. Marchok","raw_affiliation_strings":["Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5703-2861","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I191217947"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5003810613","https://openalex.org/A5036679938"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I107470533","https://openalex.org/I888729015"],"apc_list":{"value":1500,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":1584},"apc_paid":{"value":1500,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":1584},"fwci":0.463,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":9,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.54193819,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":87,"max":95},"biblio":{"volume":"11","issue":"9","first_page":"1002","last_page":"1002"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11483","display_name":"Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research","score":0.9922000169754028,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11483","display_name":"Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research","score":0.9922000169754028,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10466","display_name":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","score":0.006800000090152025,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/tropical-cyclone-genesis","display_name":"tropical cyclone genesis","score":0.9079999923706055},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/tropical-cyclone-intensity-forecasting","display_name":"tropical cyclone intensity forecasting","score":0.8669999837875366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/typhoons","display_name":"typhoons","score":0.6919999718666077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/western-north-pacific","display_name":"western North Pacific","score":0.8769999742507935},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/northeast-pacific","display_name":"Northeast Pacific","score":0.8370000123977661},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/eastern-atlantic","display_name":"eastern Atlantic","score":0.8769999742507935}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C181654704","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q140588","display_name":"Typhoon","level":2,"score":0.8821171522140503},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C29141058","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8092","display_name":"Tropical cyclone","level":2,"score":0.80023193359375},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.7234399914741516},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.5803878307342529},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165479943","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2882177","display_name":"Rainband","level":3,"score":0.5802449584007263},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C102561126","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17164865","display_name":"Tropical cyclone forecast model","level":3,"score":0.5757930278778076},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.5346201062202454},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105306849","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q81054","display_name":"Storm","level":2,"score":0.5276362299919128},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C35647692","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2547976","display_name":"Atlantic hurricane","level":3,"score":0.52346271276474},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204323151","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q905424","display_name":"Range (aeronautics)","level":2,"score":0.5018348693847656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C193436682","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2513417","display_name":"Tropical cyclone scales","level":4,"score":0.47899481654167175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89992363","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5961558","display_name":"Track (disk drive)","level":2,"score":0.46407368779182434},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.27363336086273193},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.24429696798324585},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777864850","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q79598","display_name":"Cyclone (programming language)","level":3,"score":0.1665635108947754},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.15399879217147827},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C192562407","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q228736","display_name":"Materials science","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159985019","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q181790","display_name":"Composite material","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C9390403","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3966","display_name":"Computer hardware","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111919701","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9135","display_name":"Operating system","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42935608","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q190411","display_name":"Field-programmable gate array","level":2,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":5,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.3390/atmos11091002","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11091002","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11091002","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/9/1002/pdf?version=1600691425","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S946213959","display_name":"Atmosphere","issn_l":"2073-4433","issn":["2073-4433"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Atmosphere","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:987654321/119566","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw/dspace/handle/987654321/119566","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4406922698","display_name":"Tamkang University Institutional Repository (TKUIR)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Journal Article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:987654321/121199","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw/dspace/handle/987654321/121199","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4406922698","display_name":"Tamkang University Institutional Repository (TKUIR)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:8262e80f35d24cf18ab4c2aaca133493","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/8262e80f35d24cf18ab4c2aaca133493","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Atmosphere, Vol 11, Iss 9, p 1002 (2020)","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:noaa.stacks:noaa:51221","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/51221","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196172","display_name":"NOAA Institutional Repository","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Atmosphere, 11(9), 1002","raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/atmos11091002","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11091002","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11091002","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/9/1002/pdf?version=1600691425","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S946213959","display_name":"Atmosphere","issn_l":"2073-4433","issn":["2073-4433"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Atmosphere","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","score":0.46149998903274536,"display_name":"Climate action"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G6652446024","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"N00014-19-1-2465","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337345","funder_display_name":"Office of Naval Research"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337345","display_name":"Office of Naval Research","ror":"https://ror.org/00rk2pe57"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3087547568.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3087547568.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":12,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1978254280","https://openalex.org/W2044662153","https://openalex.org/W2090352786","https://openalex.org/W2101153704","https://openalex.org/W2173077932","https://openalex.org/W2277680059","https://openalex.org/W2521995278","https://openalex.org/W2551639806","https://openalex.org/W2772601791","https://openalex.org/W2891072613","https://openalex.org/W2981034011","https://openalex.org/W2990152316"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2906544367","https://openalex.org/W4397001800","https://openalex.org/W4283313787","https://openalex.org/W3097148695","https://openalex.org/W1978254280","https://openalex.org/W3169207272","https://openalex.org/W2346381144","https://openalex.org/W2398518111","https://openalex.org/W3173785012","https://openalex.org/W2017893141"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Marchok":[0],"vortex":[1],"tracker":[2],"outputs":[3],"from":[4,221],"the":[5,26,39,59,77,93,105,108,122,128,140,150,161,178,187,195,200,210,215,219,222,229],"European":[6],"Centre":[7],"for":[8,17,171,231],"Medium-Range":[9],"Weather":[10],"Forecasts":[11],"ensemble":[12,20],"(ECEPS)":[13],"and":[14,36,46,73,130,153,163,166,174,181,184,224],"National":[15],"Centers":[16],"Environmental":[18],"Prediction":[19],"(GEFS)":[21],"are":[22,81,169,191],"utilized":[23],"to":[24,65,134],"provide":[25],"Time-to-Formation":[27],"(T2F":[28],"of":[29,70,89,107,118,160,177],"25":[30],"kt":[31],"or":[32],"35":[33],"kt)":[34],"timing":[35,165,189],"positions":[37],"along":[38,199],"weighted-mean":[40],"vector":[41],"motion":[42],"(WMVM)":[43],"track":[44,112,202],"forecasts,":[45],"our":[47],"weighted":[48],"analog":[49],"intensity":[50,56],"Pacific":[51,80,96,227],"(WAIP)":[52],"technique":[53],"provides":[54],"7-day":[55],"forecasts":[57,63,176,203],"after":[58],"T2F.":[60],"Example":[61],"T2F(35)":[62,164],"up":[64,133],"5":[66,135],"days":[67,136],"in":[68,76,83,92,121,137,234],"advance":[69,138],"two":[71,179],"typhoons":[72,180],"one":[74],"non-developer":[75],"western":[78,216],"North":[79,95,217,226],"described":[82],"detail.":[84],"An":[85,114],"example":[86,115],"T2F":[87,116,188,196],"forecast":[88,117],"pre-Hurricane":[90,119],"Kiko":[91,183],"eastern":[94,123],"indicated":[97],"that":[98,126,139],"Hawaii":[99],"would":[100],"be":[101,205],"under":[102],"threat":[103],"by":[104],"end":[106],"15-day":[109],"ECEPS":[110,129,173],"WMVM":[111,201],"forecast.":[113],"Lorenzo":[120],"Atlantic":[124,223],"demonstrates":[125],"both":[127],"GEFS":[131,175],"predict":[132],"precursor":[141],"African":[142],"wave":[143],"will":[144,154,204],"become":[145,156],"a":[146,157],"Tropical":[147],"Storm":[148],"off":[149],"west":[151],"coast":[152],"likely":[155],"hurricane.":[158],"Validations":[159],"T2F(25)":[162],"position":[167,197],"errors":[168,190,198],"provided":[170],"all":[172],"Hurricanes":[182],"Lorenzo.":[185],"If":[186],"small":[192,206],"(<1":[193],"day),":[194],"(<300":[207],"km).":[208],"Although":[209],"primary":[211],"focus":[212],"is":[213],"on":[214],"Pacific,":[218],"examples":[220],"eastern/central":[225],"indicate":[228],"potential":[230],"future":[232],"application":[233],"other":[235],"basins.":[236]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2020-09-25T00:00:00"}
