{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3080484253","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/app10175895","title":"Epidemiological Modeling of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia: Spread Projection, Awareness, and Impact of Treatment","display_name":"Epidemiological Modeling of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia: Spread Projection, Awareness, and Impact of Treatment","publication_year":2020,"publication_date":"2020-08-26","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3080484253","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/app10175895","mag":"3080484253"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/app10175895","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/app10175895","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/app10175895","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/10/17/5895/pdf?version=1599372886","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210205812","display_name":"Applied Sciences","issn_l":"2076-3417","issn":["2076-3417"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","norway-1","oarl","poland-100","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Applied Sciences","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/10/17/5895/pdf?version=1599372886","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5011105307","display_name":"Yousef Alharbi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5189-3505","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5189-3505"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I142608572","display_name":"Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University","ror":"https://ror.org/04jt46d36","country_code":"SA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I142608572"]}],"countries":["SA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yousef Alharbi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Medical Equipment Technology, College of Applied Medical Sciences, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, Al-Kharj 16278, Saudi Arabia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Medical Equipment Technology, College of Applied Medical Sciences, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, Al-Kharj 16278, Saudi Arabia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I142608572"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5080131741","display_name":"Abdulrahman Alqahtani","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6658-3240","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6658-3240"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I195631090","display_name":"Majmaah University","ror":"https://ror.org/01mcrnj60","country_code":"SA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I195631090"]}],"countries":["SA"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Abdulrahman Alqahtani","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Medical Equipment Technology, College of Applied Medical Science, Majmaah University, Majmaah 11952, Saudi Arabia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Medical Equipment Technology, College of Applied Medical Science, Majmaah University, Majmaah 11952, Saudi Arabia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I195631090"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5032898599","display_name":"Olayan Albalawi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7772-0386","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7772-0386"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I72264486","display_name":"University of Tabuk","ror":"https://ror.org/04yej8x59","country_code":"SA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I72264486"]}],"countries":["SA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Olayan Albalawi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Statistic, Faculty of Science, Tabuk University, Tabuk 47512, Saudi Arabia"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7772-0386","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Statistic, Faculty of Science, Tabuk University, Tabuk 47512, Saudi Arabia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I72264486"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5047085524","display_name":"Mohsen Bakouri","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7244-2949","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7244-2949"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I153265617","display_name":"Sebha University","ror":"https://ror.org/04m1ha467","country_code":"LY","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I153265617"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I195631090","display_name":"Majmaah University","ror":"https://ror.org/01mcrnj60","country_code":"SA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I195631090"]}],"countries":["LY","SA"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Mohsen Bakouri","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Medical Equipment Technology, College of Applied Medical Science, Majmaah University, Majmaah 11952, Saudi Arabia","Department of Physics, College of Arts, Sebha University, Traghen 71340, Libya","Health and Basic Sciences Research Center, Majmaah University, Majmaah 11952, Saudi Arabia"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7244-2949","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Medical Equipment Technology, College of Applied Medical Science, Majmaah University, Majmaah 11952, Saudi Arabia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I195631090"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Physics, College of Arts, Sebha University, Traghen 71340, Libya","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I153265617"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Health and Basic Sciences Research Center, Majmaah University, Majmaah 11952, Saudi Arabia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I195631090"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5047085524","https://openalex.org/A5080131741"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I153265617","https://openalex.org/I195631090"],"apc_list":{"value":1800,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":1901},"apc_paid":{"value":1800,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":1901},"fwci":0.7222,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":21,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.80394915,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"10","issue":"17","first_page":"5895","last_page":"5895"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10482","display_name":"Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models","score":0.0006000000284984708,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2604","display_name":"Applied Mathematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13032","display_name":"COVID-19 Prevention and Impact","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/covid-19","display_name":"COVID-19 pandemic","score":0.9990000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/epidemic-forecasting","display_name":"epidemic forecasting","score":0.7070000171661377},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sir-model","display_name":"SIR model","score":0.9629999995231628},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/generalized-logistic-model","display_name":"generalized logistic model","score":0.7020000219345093},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/richards-growth-model","display_name":"Richards model","score":0.968999981880188},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/gompertz-model","display_name":"Gompertz model","score":1.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/social-distancing","display_name":"social distancing","score":0.7450000047683716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/treatment-effects","display_name":"treatment effects","score":0.6340000033378601},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/awareness","display_name":"awareness","score":0.4490000009536743},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/saudi-arabia","display_name":"Saudi Arabia","score":0.7509999871253967},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/epidemic-control","display_name":"epidemic control","score":0.6299999952316284}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126674687","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1662573","display_name":"Akaike information criterion","level":2,"score":0.8676297664642334},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134463574","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1011785","display_name":"Gompertz function","level":2,"score":0.7762347459793091},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.7056435942649841},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C521751864","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1729207","display_name":"Christian ministry","level":2,"score":0.624880313873291},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.5180444717407227},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89623803","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12184","display_name":"Pandemic","level":5,"score":0.47994735836982727},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.4793339669704437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139945424","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1940696","display_name":"Mean squared error","level":2,"score":0.46745046973228455},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107130276","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q133805","display_name":"Epidemiology","level":2,"score":0.4201434552669525},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C1627819","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2572354","display_name":"Epidemic model","level":3,"score":0.41452547907829285},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.37144720554351807},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.35058942437171936},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.3374437987804413},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C99454951","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q932068","display_name":"Environmental health","level":1,"score":0.19387224316596985},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.17081615328788757},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.13123038411140442},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.09523805975914001},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126322002","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11180","display_name":"Internal medicine","level":1,"score":0.06649923324584961},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C27206212","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q34178","display_name":"Theology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.3390/app10175895","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/app10175895","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/app10175895","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/10/17/5895/pdf?version=1599372886","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210205812","display_name":"Applied Sciences","issn_l":"2076-3417","issn":["2076-3417"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","norway-1","oarl","poland-100","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Applied Sciences","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:9cac1710c9bf4ccc99650259c4ed8693","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/9cac1710c9bf4ccc99650259c4ed8693","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Applied Sciences, Vol 10, Iss 17, p 5895 (2020)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/app10175895","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/app10175895","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/app10175895","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/10/17/5895/pdf?version=1599372886","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210205812","display_name":"Applied Sciences","issn_l":"2076-3417","issn":["2076-3417"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","norway-1","oarl","poland-100","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Applied Sciences","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Good health and well-being","score":0.9537000060081482,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3080484253.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3080484253.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":32,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1788752801","https://openalex.org/W2001484995","https://openalex.org/W2024991751","https://openalex.org/W2148301044","https://openalex.org/W2604339309","https://openalex.org/W2624942992","https://openalex.org/W2893308043","https://openalex.org/W2953003787","https://openalex.org/W2995576761","https://openalex.org/W3001118548","https://openalex.org/W3002108456","https://openalex.org/W3004280078","https://openalex.org/W3005057892","https://openalex.org/W3006645647","https://openalex.org/W3006794247","https://openalex.org/W3007184227","https://openalex.org/W3007580879","https://openalex.org/W3007944779","https://openalex.org/W3008629533","https://openalex.org/W3009885589","https://openalex.org/W3010233963","https://openalex.org/W3012083138","https://openalex.org/W3012272607","https://openalex.org/W3012421327","https://openalex.org/W3013360115","https://openalex.org/W3013649595","https://openalex.org/W3017190864","https://openalex.org/W3018219276","https://openalex.org/W3031955543","https://openalex.org/W3032032208","https://openalex.org/W3035225434","https://openalex.org/W4291747007"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3037169773","https://openalex.org/W3194774507","https://openalex.org/W3157545352","https://openalex.org/W3021669851","https://openalex.org/W3038549077","https://openalex.org/W3119618816","https://openalex.org/W3173409798","https://openalex.org/W4379377489","https://openalex.org/W4283827036","https://openalex.org/W3087362954"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,102,123,213,325],"first":[1],"case":[2],"of":[3,26,37,43,47,51,61,68,73,89,104,125,161,171,178,221,241,292,305,307,314,323,342],"COVID-19":[4,62,81,105],"originated":[5],"in":[6,75,151,255],"Wuhan,":[7],"China,":[8],"after":[9],"which":[10],"it":[11],"spread":[12,25,103,341],"across":[13],"more":[14,32,44],"than":[15,33,45],"200":[16],"countries.":[17],"By":[18],"21":[19,99],"July":[20,100,286],"2020,":[21,287],"the":[22,48,59,66,71,86,92,114,155,162,169,176,182,185,197,218,229,238,242,256,271,293,302,312,321,340],"rapid":[23],"global":[24],"this":[27,79,328,343],"disease":[28],"had":[29],"led":[30],"to":[31,57,64,98,153,167,192,300,310,338],"15":[34],"million":[35],"cases":[36,223,306],"infection,":[38],"with":[39,196,245],"a":[40,189,253],"mortality":[41],"rate":[42],"4.0%":[46],"total":[49],"number":[50,220,304],"confirmed":[52],"cases.":[53],"This":[54],"study":[55,329],"aimed":[56],"predict":[58,301],"prevalence":[60,177,322],"and":[63,70,120,130,146,173,209,227,263,273,309,317],"investigate":[65],"effect":[67],"awareness":[69,172],"impact":[72,313],"treatment":[74,174,279],"Saudi":[76,87],"Arabia.":[77],"In":[78],"paper,":[80],"data":[82,194],"were":[83,165,268,281],"sourced":[84],"from":[85,94,327],"Ministry":[88],"Health,":[90],"covering":[91],"period":[93],"31":[95],"March":[96],"2020":[97],"2020.":[101,236],"was":[106,128],"predicted":[107,216],"using":[108,132,288],"four":[109,133],"different":[110,278],"epidemiological":[111],"models,":[112],"namely":[113],"susceptible\u2013infectious\u2013recovered":[115],"(SIR),":[116],"generalized":[117],"logistic,":[118],"Richards,":[119],"Gompertz":[121],"models.":[122],"assessment":[124],"models\u2019":[126],"fit":[127,191],"performed":[129],"compared":[131,195],"statistical":[134,183],"indices":[135],"(root-mean-square":[136],"error":[137],"(RMSE),":[138],"R":[139],"squared":[140],"(R2),":[141],"adjusted":[142],"R2":[143,203],"(":[144],"Radj2),":[145],"Akaike\u2019s":[147],"information":[148,333],"criterion":[149],"(AIC))":[150],"order":[152],"select":[154],"most":[156],"appropriate":[157],"model.":[158,295],"Modified":[159],"versions":[160],"SIR":[163,186,214,243,294],"model":[164,187,215,244],"utilized":[166],"assess":[168],"influence":[170],"on":[175,181,284,320],"COVID-19.":[179,324],"Based":[180],"indices,":[184],"showed":[188],"good":[190],"reported":[193],"other":[198],"models":[199],"(RMSE":[200],"=":[201,204,207,211],"2790.69,":[202],"99.88%,":[205],"Radj2":[206],"99.98%,":[208],"AIC":[210],"1796.05).":[212],"that":[217,228,249],"cumulative":[219,258,303],"infected":[222],"would":[224,231,251],"reach":[225],"359,794":[226],"pandemic":[230],"end":[232],"by":[233,261],"early":[234],"September":[235],"Additionally,":[237],"modified":[239,290],"version":[240,291],"social":[246,266,315],"distancing":[247,267,316],"revealed":[248],"there":[250],"be":[252],"reduction":[254],"final":[257],"epidemic":[259],"size":[260],"9.1%":[262],"168.2%":[264],"if":[265],"applied":[269],"over":[270],"short":[272],"long":[274],"term,":[275],"respectively.":[276],"Furthermore,":[277],"scenarios":[280],"simulated,":[282],"starting":[283],"8":[285],"another":[289],"Epidemiological":[296],"modeling":[297],"can":[298,330],"help":[299],"infection":[308],"understand":[311],"pharmaceutical":[318],"intervention":[319],"findings":[326],"provide":[331],"valuable":[332],"for":[334],"governmental":[335],"policymakers":[336],"trying":[337],"control":[339],"pandemic.":[344]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2020-09-01T00:00:00"}