{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3036607337","doi":"https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.9421","title":"Modelling fatality curves of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of intervention strategies","display_name":"Modelling fatality curves of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of intervention strategies","publication_year":2020,"publication_date":"2020-06-23","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3036607337","doi":"https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.9421","mag":"3036607337","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32612894","pmcid":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/7319030"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.7717/peerj.9421","doi":"https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.9421","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.9421","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S1983995261","display_name":"PeerJ","issn_l":"2167-8359","issn":["2167-8359"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-d","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","oarl","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320104","host_organization_name":"PeerJ, Inc.","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320104"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["PeerJ, Inc."],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PeerJ","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","doaj","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.9421","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5026665643","display_name":"Giovani L. Vasconcelos","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6609-5960","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6609-5960"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I52418104","display_name":"Universidade Federal do Paran\u00e1","ror":"https://ror.org/05syd6y78","country_code":"BR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I52418104"]}],"countries":["BR"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Giovani L. Vasconcelos","raw_affiliation_strings":["Departamento de F\u00edsica, Universidade Federal do Paran\u00e1, 81531-990 Curitiba, Paran\u00e1 Brazil","Departamento de F\u00edsica, Universidade Federal do Paran\u00e1, Curitiba, Paran\u00e1, Brazil"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6609-5960","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Departamento de F\u00edsica, Universidade Federal do Paran\u00e1, 81531-990 Curitiba, Paran\u00e1 Brazil","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I52418104"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Departamento de F\u00edsica, Universidade Federal do Paran\u00e1, Curitiba, Paran\u00e1, Brazil","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I52418104"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5017929610","display_name":"A. M. S. Mac\u00eado","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4522-031X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4522-031X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I25112270","display_name":"Universidade Federal de Pernambuco","ror":"https://ror.org/047908t24","country_code":"BR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I25112270"]}],"countries":["BR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ant\u00f4nio M. S. Mac\u00eado","raw_affiliation_strings":["Departamento de F\u00edsica, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, 50670-901 Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil","Departamento de F\u00edsica, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4522-031X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Departamento de F\u00edsica, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, 50670-901 Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I25112270"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Departamento de F\u00edsica, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I25112270"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5078073624","display_name":"Raydonal Ospina","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9884-9090","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9884-9090"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I25112270","display_name":"Universidade Federal de Pernambuco","ror":"https://ror.org/047908t24","country_code":"BR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I25112270"]}],"countries":["BR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Raydonal Ospina","raw_affiliation_strings":["Departamento de Estat\u00edstica, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, 50740\u2013540, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil","Departamento de Estat\u00edstica, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Departamento de Estat\u00edstica, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, 50740\u2013540, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I25112270"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Departamento de Estat\u00edstica, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I25112270"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5007203485","display_name":"Francisco A. G. Almeida","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2195-620X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2195-620X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I190085865","display_name":"Universidade Federal de Sergipe","ror":"https://ror.org/028ka0n85","country_code":"BR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I190085865"]}],"countries":["BR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Francisco A. G. Almeida","raw_affiliation_strings":["Departamento de F\u00edsica, Universidade Federal de Sergipe, 49100-000, S\u00e3o Crist\u00f3v\u00e3o, Sergipe, Brazil","Departamento de F\u00edsica, Universidade Federal de Sergipe, S\u00e3o Cristov\u00e3o, Sergipe, Brazil"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Departamento de F\u00edsica, Universidade Federal de Sergipe, 49100-000, S\u00e3o Crist\u00f3v\u00e3o, Sergipe, Brazil","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I190085865"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Departamento de F\u00edsica, Universidade Federal de Sergipe, S\u00e3o Cristov\u00e3o, Sergipe, Brazil","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I190085865"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5082940005","display_name":"Gerson C. Duarte-Filho","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4975-4981","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4975-4981"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I190085865","display_name":"Universidade Federal de Sergipe","ror":"https://ror.org/028ka0n85","country_code":"BR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I190085865"]}],"countries":["BR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Gerson C. Duarte-Filho","raw_affiliation_strings":["Departamento de F\u00edsica, Universidade Federal de Sergipe, 49100-000, S\u00e3o Crist\u00f3v\u00e3o, Sergipe, Brazil","Departamento de F\u00edsica, Universidade Federal de Sergipe, S\u00e3o Cristov\u00e3o, Sergipe, Brazil"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Departamento de F\u00edsica, Universidade Federal de Sergipe, 49100-000, S\u00e3o Crist\u00f3v\u00e3o, Sergipe, Brazil","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I190085865"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Departamento de F\u00edsica, Universidade Federal de Sergipe, S\u00e3o Cristov\u00e3o, Sergipe, Brazil","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I190085865"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5072299912","display_name":"Arthur A. Brum","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2843-042X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2843-042X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I25112270","display_name":"Universidade Federal de Pernambuco","ror":"https://ror.org/047908t24","country_code":"BR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I25112270"]}],"countries":["BR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Arthur A. Brum","raw_affiliation_strings":["Departamento de F\u00edsica, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, 50670-901 Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil","Departamento de F\u00edsica, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Departamento de F\u00edsica, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, 50670-901 Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I25112270"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Departamento de F\u00edsica, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I25112270"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5081957982","display_name":"In\u00eas C. L. Souza","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7758-8269","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7758-8269"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"In\u00eas C. L. Souza","raw_affiliation_strings":["3Hippos Data Consulting, Rua Fernando Simas 685, 80430-190, Curitiba, Paran\u00e1, Brazil","3Hippos Data Consulting, Unaffiliated, Curitiba, Paran\u00e1, Brazil"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"3Hippos Data Consulting, Rua Fernando Simas 685, 80430-190, Curitiba, Paran\u00e1, Brazil","institution_ids":[]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"3Hippos Data Consulting, Unaffiliated, Curitiba, Paran\u00e1, Brazil","institution_ids":[]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5026665643"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I52418104"],"apc_list":{"value":1395,"currency":"USD","value_usd":1395},"apc_paid":{"value":1395,"currency":"USD","value_usd":1395},"fwci":1.9861,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":59,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.91187258,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":91,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":"8","issue":null,"first_page":"e9421","last_page":"e9421"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10482","display_name":"Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models","score":0.00019999999494757503,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2604","display_name":"Applied Mathematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11819","display_name":"Data-Driven Disease Surveillance","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/covid-19","display_name":"COVID-19 pandemic","score":0.9980000257492065},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cumulative-deaths","display_name":"cumulative deaths","score":0.6439999938011169},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/richards-growth-model","display_name":"Richards model","score":0.9929999709129333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/intervention-effectiveness","display_name":"intervention effectiveness","score":0.8240000009536743},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/epidemic-growth-rate","display_name":"epidemic growth rate","score":0.45500001311302185},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/subexponential-growth","display_name":"subexponential growth","score":0.6970000267028809}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187316915","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q92307203","display_name":"Case fatality rate","level":3,"score":0.7975708246231079},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779343474","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3109175","display_name":"Context (archaeology)","level":2,"score":0.726253092288971},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116675565","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3241045","display_name":"Outbreak","level":2,"score":0.7136331796646118},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.6653960943222046},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C191935318","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q148","display_name":"China","level":2,"score":0.6151641607284546},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780665704","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q959298","display_name":"Intervention (counseling)","level":2,"score":0.5434004664421082},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.5037238001823425},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.4327545762062073},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C27415008","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7256382","display_name":"Psychological intervention","level":2,"score":0.4274856448173523},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.35768234729766846},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.35487988591194153},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.3107619881629944},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.25488680601119995},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.16031286120414734},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.13979914784431458},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.11983335018157959},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.11220479011535645},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159047783","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7215","display_name":"Virology","level":1,"score":0.10194772481918335},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118552586","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7867","display_name":"Psychiatry","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142724271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7208","display_name":"Pathology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":5,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.7717/peerj.9421","doi":"https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.9421","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.9421","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S1983995261","display_name":"PeerJ","issn_l":"2167-8359","issn":["2167-8359"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-d","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","oarl","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320104","host_organization_name":"PeerJ, Inc.","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320104"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["PeerJ, Inc."],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PeerJ","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"doi:10.1101/2020.04.02.20051557","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.02.20051557","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.02.20051557","pdf_url":"https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/05/22/2020.04.02.20051557.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S3005729997","display_name":"medRxiv","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315909"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press"],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"medRxiv","raw_type":"posted-content"},{"id":"pmid:32612894","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32612894","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PeerJ","raw_type":"Journal Article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:7319030","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7319030/","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PeerJ","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:41b99da43b914a7aa715e5183bdf53a8","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/41b99da43b914a7aa715e5183bdf53a8","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PeerJ, Vol 8, p e9421 (2020)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.7717/peerj.9421","doi":"https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.9421","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.9421","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S1983995261","display_name":"PeerJ","issn_l":"2167-8359","issn":["2167-8359"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-d","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","oarl","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320104","host_organization_name":"PeerJ, Inc.","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320104"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["PeerJ, Inc."],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PeerJ","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.9391000270843506,"display_name":"Good health and well-being","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G2396386836","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"312612/2019-2 and 305305/2019-0","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320322025","funder_display_name":"Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient\u00edfico e Tecnol\u00f3gico"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G5805519978","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"303772/2017-4","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320322025","funder_display_name":"Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient\u00edfico e Tecnol\u00f3gico"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G7958972188","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"303772/2017-4, 312612/2019-2 and 305305/2019-0","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320322025","funder_display_name":"Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient\u00edfico e Tecnol\u00f3gico"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321091","display_name":"Coordena\u00e7\u00e3o de Aperfei\u00e7oamento de Pessoal de N\u00edvel Superior","ror":"https://ror.org/00x0ma614"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320322025","display_name":"Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient\u00edfico e Tecnol\u00f3gico","ror":"https://ror.org/03swz6y49"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3036607337.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3036607337.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":35,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1965576617","https://openalex.org/W1983874169","https://openalex.org/W1992224053","https://openalex.org/W2081829565","https://openalex.org/W2114123573","https://openalex.org/W2167694888","https://openalex.org/W2410602045","https://openalex.org/W2506821201","https://openalex.org/W2750398991","https://openalex.org/W2940193715","https://openalex.org/W2944866126","https://openalex.org/W3007407904","https://openalex.org/W3012284084","https://openalex.org/W3012689835","https://openalex.org/W3012916185","https://openalex.org/W3013778021","https://openalex.org/W3014866318","https://openalex.org/W3015157686","https://openalex.org/W3020746008","https://openalex.org/W3021172344","https://openalex.org/W3023441241","https://openalex.org/W3027498957","https://openalex.org/W3032994695","https://openalex.org/W3071964420","https://openalex.org/W3095973671","https://openalex.org/W3207448704","https://openalex.org/W3209059938","https://openalex.org/W4287823098","https://openalex.org/W4287824080","https://openalex.org/W6774792754","https://openalex.org/W6774977620","https://openalex.org/W6784868886","https://openalex.org/W6840376093","https://openalex.org/W6840640051","https://openalex.org/W7046750829"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3034429689","https://openalex.org/W3207448704","https://openalex.org/W3014146342","https://openalex.org/W3034239427","https://openalex.org/W3112496450","https://openalex.org/W3131672989","https://openalex.org/W4287689913","https://openalex.org/W3167848721","https://openalex.org/W3048516194","https://openalex.org/W3040497931"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,96],"main":[1],"objective":[2],"of":[3,15,25,30,44,107,115,122,137,143,151,182,188,203,208,228,230,237],"the":[4,12,16,22,36,42,50,56,66,69,84,104,116,123,131,135,138,141,149,165,180,186,189,206,209,224,231,235],"present":[5],"article":[6],"is":[7,110,154,170,191,198],"twofold:":[8],"first,":[9],"to":[10,34,40,55,75,100,223,233],"model":[11,39,53,168,222],"fatality":[13,58,105,226],"curves":[14,59,106],"COVID-19":[17,57,117,225],"disease,":[18],"as":[19,27,119,121],"represented":[20],"by":[21],"cumulative":[23],"number":[24],"deaths":[26],"a":[28,112,200],"function":[29],"time;":[31],"and":[32,94,161],"second,":[33],"use":[35],"corresponding":[37],"mathematical":[38],"study":[41],"effectiveness":[43],"possible":[45,239],"intervention":[46,183,221],"strategies.":[47],"We":[48,146,218],"applied":[49,219],"Richards":[51],"growth":[52,159,167],"(RGM)":[54],"from":[60,68],"several":[61,238],"countries,":[62,126],"where":[63],"we":[64,163],"used":[65,164],"data":[67],"Johns":[70],"Hopkins":[71],"University":[72],"database":[73],"up":[74],"May":[76],"8,":[77],"2020.":[78],"Countries":[79],"selected":[80],"for":[81,173,179],"analysis":[82],"with":[83],"RGM":[85,97,190],"were":[86],"China,":[87,108],"France,":[88],"Germany,":[89],"Iran,":[90],"Italy,":[91],"South":[92],"Korea,":[93],"Spain.":[95],"was":[98],"shown":[99],"describe":[101],"very":[102],"well":[103,120],"which":[109,127,153,169,212],"in":[111,130,155],"late":[113],"stage":[114],"outbreak,":[118],"other":[124],"above":[125],"supposedly":[128],"are":[129],"middle":[132],"or":[133],"towards":[134],"end":[136],"outbreak":[139,232],"at":[140],"time":[142],"this":[144],"writing.":[145],"also":[147],"analysed":[148],"case":[150],"Brazil,":[152],"an":[156],"initial":[157],"sub-exponential":[158],"regime,":[160],"so":[162],"generalised":[166],"more":[171],"appropriate":[172],"such":[174],"cases.":[175],"An":[176],"analytic":[177],"formula":[178],"efficiency":[181],"strategies":[184],"within":[185],"context":[187],"derived.":[192],"Our":[193],"findings":[194],"show":[195],"that":[196],"there":[197],"only":[199],"narrow":[201],"window":[202],"opportunity,":[204],"after":[205],"onset":[207],"epidemic,":[210],"during":[211],"effective":[213],"countermeasures":[214],"can":[215],"be":[216],"taken.":[217],"our":[220],"curve":[227],"Italy":[229],"illustrate":[234],"effect":[236],"interventions.":[240]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":13},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":18},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":21}],"updated_date":"2026-11-10T11:39:43.021295","created_date":"2020-06-25T00:00:00"}