{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3023680280","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.09.005","title":"Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model","display_name":"Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model","publication_year":2020,"publication_date":"2020-01-07","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3023680280","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.09.005","mag":"3023680280"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.09.005","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.09.005","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.09.005","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S39841227","display_name":"International Journal of Forecasting","issn_l":"0169-2070","issn":["0169-2070","1872-8200"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","fnege-3","jufo-2","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Forecasting","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2978514","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5079970655","display_name":"Kai Carstensen","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8820-9997","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8820-9997"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I32021983","display_name":"Christian-Albrechts-Universit\u00e4t zu Kiel","ror":"https://ror.org/04v76ef78","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I32021983"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Kai Carstensen","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Kiel, Ifo Institute, CESifo, Germany"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Kiel, Ifo Institute, CESifo, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I32021983"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5060460014","display_name":"Markus Heinrich","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I32021983","display_name":"Christian-Albrechts-Universit\u00e4t zu Kiel","ror":"https://ror.org/04v76ef78","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I32021983"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Markus Heinrich","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Kiel, Germany"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Kiel, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I32021983"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5008822260","display_name":"Magnus Reif","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3953-4144","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3953-4144"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I8204097","display_name":"Ludwig-Maximilians-Universit\u00e4t M\u00fcnchen","ror":"https://ror.org/05591te55","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I8204097"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Magnus Reif","raw_affiliation_strings":["Ifo Institute, CESifo, University of Munich, Germany"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Ifo Institute, CESifo, University of Munich, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I8204097"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5073854711","display_name":"Maik H. Wolters","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I114090438","display_name":"Goethe University Frankfurt","ror":"https://ror.org/04cvxnb49","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I114090438"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1308524038","display_name":"Kiel Institute for the World Economy","ror":"https://ror.org/032yym934","country_code":"DE","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1308524038","https://openalex.org/I315704651"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Maik H. Wolters","raw_affiliation_strings":["IMFS at Goethe University Frankfurt, Germany","University of Jena, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Germany"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"IMFS at Goethe University Frankfurt, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I114090438"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Jena, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1308524038"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5008822260"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I8204097"],"apc_list":{"value":1200,"currency":"USD","value_usd":1200},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":3.8388,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":40,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.93756036,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":92,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"36","issue":"3","first_page":"829","last_page":"850"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.5580999851226807,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.5580999851226807,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.4106000065803528,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13399","display_name":"Unemployment and Economic Growth","score":0.011300000362098217,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/recession-prediction","display_name":"recession prediction","score":0.7139999866485596},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/business-cycle-indicators","display_name":"business cycle indicators","score":0.8190000057220459},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/leading-indicators","display_name":"leading indicators","score":0.7749999761581421},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/business-cycle-turning-points","display_name":"business cycle turning points","score":0.7870000004768372},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/real-time-forecasting","display_name":"real-time prediction","score":0.7139999866485596},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/nowcasting","display_name":"nowcasting","score":0.6620000004768372},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/great-recession","display_name":"Great Recession","score":0.8330000042915344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/german-economy","display_name":"German economy","score":0.6370000243186951},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/gdp-forecasting","display_name":"GDP forecasting","score":0.7250000238418579}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C195742910","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q176494","display_name":"Recession","level":2,"score":0.919223427772522},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C155702961","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5318975","display_name":"Dynamic factor","level":2,"score":0.7349964380264282},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C83873408","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q192311","display_name":"Business cycle","level":2,"score":0.727712869644165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.6250405311584473},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.4932507872581482},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C198531522","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q485146","display_name":"Sample (material)","level":2,"score":0.48009803891181946},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165556158","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q83937","display_name":"Keynesian economics","level":1,"score":0.24415087699890137},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43617362","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q170050","display_name":"Chromatography","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185592680","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2329","display_name":"Chemistry","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":10,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.09.005","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.09.005","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.09.005","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S39841227","display_name":"International Journal of Forecasting","issn_l":"0169-2070","issn":["0169-2070","1872-8200"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","fnege-3","jufo-2","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Forecasting","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"doi:10.2139/ssrn.2978514","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2978514","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2978514","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210172589","display_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","issn_l":"1556-5068","issn":["1556-5068"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1318003438","host_organization_name":"RELX Group (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1318003438"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6457","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp6457.pdf","pdf_url":"https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp6457.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2019-006","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://oweb.b67.uni-jena.de/Papers/jerp2019/wp_2019_006.pdf","pdf_url":"http://www2.wiwi.uni-jena.de/Papers/jerp2019/wp_2019_006.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168206","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/168206/1/VfS-2017-pid-3164.pdf","pdf_url":"https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/168206/1/VfS-2017-pid-3164.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"mag:3122845589","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2978514","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210172589","display_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","issn_l":"1556-5068","issn":["1556-5068"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1318003438","host_organization_name":"RELX Group (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1318003438"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:eee:intfor:v:36:y:2020:i:3:p:829-850","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207019302493","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:econstor.eu:10419/161896","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10419/161896","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401696","display_name":"Econstor (Econstor)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"doc-type:workingPaper"},{"id":"pmh:oai:econstor.eu:10419/168206","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10419/168206","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401696","display_name":"Econstor (Econstor)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"doc-type:conferenceObject"},{"id":"pmh:oai:econstor.eu:10419/204610","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10419/204610","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401696","display_name":"Econstor (Econstor)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"doc-type:workingPaper"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.2139/ssrn.2978514","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2978514","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2978514","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210172589","display_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","issn_l":"1556-5068","issn":["1556-5068"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1318003438","host_organization_name":"RELX Group (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1318003438"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3023680280.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3023680280.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":66,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W45111194","https://openalex.org/W1496127819","https://openalex.org/W1515971793","https://openalex.org/W1516653184","https://openalex.org/W1544740791","https://openalex.org/W1566120911","https://openalex.org/W1577200768","https://openalex.org/W1586703292","https://openalex.org/W1595852061","https://openalex.org/W1602480090","https://openalex.org/W1933225266","https://openalex.org/W1969570435","https://openalex.org/W1970740450","https://openalex.org/W1972010660","https://openalex.org/W1991269310","https://openalex.org/W2000269296","https://openalex.org/W2000632882","https://openalex.org/W2014378975","https://openalex.org/W2015092916","https://openalex.org/W2019327560","https://openalex.org/W2027371404","https://openalex.org/W2030037596","https://openalex.org/W2031299127","https://openalex.org/W2033273362","https://openalex.org/W2035777923","https://openalex.org/W2047028564","https://openalex.org/W2049283082","https://openalex.org/W2054009913","https://openalex.org/W2058691952","https://openalex.org/W2063978378","https://openalex.org/W2074812030","https://openalex.org/W2078202730","https://openalex.org/W2083750975","https://openalex.org/W2085940758","https://openalex.org/W2092640214","https://openalex.org/W2106038542","https://openalex.org/W2108963689","https://openalex.org/W2117783996","https://openalex.org/W2122825543","https://openalex.org/W2130425622","https://openalex.org/W2150239484","https://openalex.org/W2226212178","https://openalex.org/W2264823470","https://openalex.org/W2409139449","https://openalex.org/W2469166566","https://openalex.org/W2570481437","https://openalex.org/W2732633850","https://openalex.org/W2746323135","https://openalex.org/W2890989484","https://openalex.org/W3021685756","https://openalex.org/W3022606520","https://openalex.org/W3121354665","https://openalex.org/W3121903657","https://openalex.org/W3122193703","https://openalex.org/W3122272369","https://openalex.org/W3123616680","https://openalex.org/W3123887400","https://openalex.org/W3124356524","https://openalex.org/W3124635053","https://openalex.org/W3124690764","https://openalex.org/W3124708742","https://openalex.org/W3125145248","https://openalex.org/W3125792968","https://openalex.org/W4234698323","https://openalex.org/W6650258367","https://openalex.org/W6720068036"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2616248802","https://openalex.org/W6989582146","https://openalex.org/W7098161206","https://openalex.org/W3136174678","https://openalex.org/W1549967589","https://openalex.org/W2740008170","https://openalex.org/W1566120911","https://openalex.org/W2987702248","https://openalex.org/W1486176198","https://openalex.org/W2999461352"],"abstract_inverted_index":null,"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":3}],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2020-05-13T00:00:00"}