{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3020439591","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5614/cbms.2020.3.1.1","title":"Modeling Simulation of COVID-19 in Indonesia based on Early Endemic Data","display_name":"Modeling Simulation of COVID-19 in Indonesia based on Early Endemic Data","publication_year":2020,"publication_date":"2020-04-17","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3020439591","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5614/cbms.2020.3.1.1","mag":"3020439591"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.5614/cbms.2020.3.1.1","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5614/cbms.2020.3.1.1","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5614/cbms.2020.3.1.1","pdf_url":"https://journals.itb.ac.id/index.php/cbms/article/download/13395/4641","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210213978","display_name":"Communication in Biomathematical Sciences","issn_l":"2549-2896","issn":["2549-2896"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["doaj","poland-20","russia-white-list-4"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310314990","host_organization_name":"ITB Journal Publisher, LPPM ITB","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310314990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["ITB Journal Publisher, LPPM ITB"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Communication in Biomathematical Sciences","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"diamond","oa_url":"https://journals.itb.ac.id/index.php/cbms/article/download/13395/4641","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5067640892","display_name":"Nuning Nuraini","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4401-8304","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4401-8304"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I134635517","display_name":"Bandung Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/00apj8t60","country_code":"ID","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I134635517"]}],"countries":["ID"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Nuning Nuraini","raw_affiliation_strings":["Center for Mathematical Modeling and Simulation, Institut Teknologi Bandung"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Center for Mathematical Modeling and Simulation, Institut Teknologi Bandung","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I134635517"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5065673469","display_name":"Kamal Khairudin Sukandar","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7175-4403","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7175-4403"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I134635517","display_name":"Bandung Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/00apj8t60","country_code":"ID","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I134635517"]}],"countries":["ID"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Kamal Khairudin","raw_affiliation_strings":["Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institut Teknologi Bandung"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institut Teknologi Bandung","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I134635517"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5059606792","display_name":"Mochamad Apri","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7057-4323","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7057-4323"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I134635517","display_name":"Bandung Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/00apj8t60","country_code":"ID","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I134635517"]}],"countries":["ID"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mochamad Apri","raw_affiliation_strings":["Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institut Teknologi Bandung"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institut Teknologi Bandung","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I134635517"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I134635517"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":2.1667,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":67,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.9200623,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":95,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":"3","issue":"1","first_page":"1","last_page":"8"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9984999895095825,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9984999895095825,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10482","display_name":"Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models","score":0.0010999999940395355,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2604","display_name":"Applied Mathematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13032","display_name":"COVID-19 Prevention and Impact","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/covid-19","display_name":"COVID-19 pandemic","score":0.9929999709129333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/epidemic-modeling","display_name":"epidemic modeling","score":0.7039999961853027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/parameter-estimation","display_name":"parameter estimation","score":0.7059999704360962},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/south-korea","display_name":"South Korea","score":0.4880000054836273},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/indonesia","display_name":"Indonesia","score":0.9539999961853027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/pandemic-forecasting","display_name":"pandemic forecasting","score":0.38600000739097595},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/epidemic-control-measures","display_name":"epidemic control measures","score":0.37599998712539673}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C47941915","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q107885","display_name":"Speculation","level":2,"score":0.7559378147125244},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.7105129361152649},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89623803","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12184","display_name":"Pandemic","level":5,"score":0.595799446105957},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C180802074","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1052379","display_name":"Logistic function","level":2,"score":0.46782249212265015},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.46765202283859253},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151956035","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1132755","display_name":"Logistic regression","level":2,"score":0.426949143409729},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3006700255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q81068910","display_name":"2019-20 coronavirus outbreak","level":3,"score":0.420462965965271},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.41330185532569885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C96250715","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q965330","display_name":"Estimation","level":2,"score":0.4116983711719513},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.289156049489975},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159047783","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7215","display_name":"Virology","level":1,"score":0.21914535760879517},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.20496916770935059},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.1913233995437622},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.13640367984771729},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.13251453638076782},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116675565","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3241045","display_name":"Outbreak","level":2,"score":0.06728538870811462},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187736073","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2920921","display_name":"Management","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142724271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7208","display_name":"Pathology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139719470","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39680","display_name":"Macroeconomics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.5614/cbms.2020.3.1.1","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5614/cbms.2020.3.1.1","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5614/cbms.2020.3.1.1","pdf_url":"https://journals.itb.ac.id/index.php/cbms/article/download/13395/4641","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210213978","display_name":"Communication in Biomathematical Sciences","issn_l":"2549-2896","issn":["2549-2896"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["doaj","poland-20","russia-white-list-4"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310314990","host_organization_name":"ITB Journal Publisher, LPPM ITB","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310314990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["ITB Journal Publisher, LPPM ITB"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Communication in Biomathematical Sciences","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:a434cd21a79a4844b110b6debcfc8f39","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/a434cd21a79a4844b110b6debcfc8f39","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Communication in Biomathematical Sciences, Vol 3, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2020)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.5614/cbms.2020.3.1.1","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5614/cbms.2020.3.1.1","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5614/cbms.2020.3.1.1","pdf_url":"https://journals.itb.ac.id/index.php/cbms/article/download/13395/4641","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210213978","display_name":"Communication in Biomathematical Sciences","issn_l":"2549-2896","issn":["2549-2896"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["doaj","poland-20","russia-white-list-4"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310314990","host_organization_name":"ITB Journal Publisher, LPPM ITB","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310314990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["ITB Journal Publisher, LPPM ITB"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Communication in Biomathematical Sciences","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Good health and well-being","score":0.504800021648407,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3020439591.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3020439591.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":3,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2114123573","https://openalex.org/W3037131895","https://openalex.org/W3041285810"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3091908809","https://openalex.org/W3044727070","https://openalex.org/W3125106767","https://openalex.org/W4221011494","https://openalex.org/W4220755313","https://openalex.org/W4285663037","https://openalex.org/W3036517346","https://openalex.org/W3149106404","https://openalex.org/W3161891781","https://openalex.org/W3126821075"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,46,111],"COVID-19":[1,31],"pandemic":[2],"has":[3],"recently":[4],"caused":[5],"so":[6],"much":[7],"anxiety":[8],"and":[9,70],"speculation":[10],"around":[11],"the":[12,20,24,30,42,51,62,84,87,99,122],"world.":[13],"This":[14],"phenomenon":[15],"was":[16],"mainly":[17],"driven":[18],"by":[19],"drastic":[21],"increase":[22],"in":[23,44,89,102,108,118],"number":[25,124],"of":[26,65,83,125],"infected":[27],"people":[28],"with":[29,121],"virus":[32],"worldwide.":[33],"Here":[34],"we":[35,73,93],"propose":[36],"a":[37,56,95],"simple":[38],"model":[39,47,85],"to":[40,86],"predict":[41],"endemic":[43,115],"Indonesia.":[45],"is":[48,104],"based":[49],"on":[50,61],"Richard\u2019s":[52],"Curve":[53],"that":[54,77,98,114],"represents":[55],"modified":[57],"logistic":[58],"equation.":[59],"Based":[60],"similar":[63],"trends":[64],"initial":[66],"data":[67,88],"between":[68],"Indonesia":[69,103],"South":[71,90,109],"Korea,":[72],"use":[74,94],"parameter":[75,81],"values":[76],"are":[78],"obtained":[79],"through":[80],"estimation":[82],"Korea.":[91,110],"Further,":[92],"strict":[96],"assumption":[97],"implemented":[100],"strategy":[101],"as":[105,107],"effective":[106],"results":[112],"show":[113],"will":[116],"end":[117],"April":[119],"2020":[120],"total":[123],"cases":[126],"more":[127],"than":[128],"8000.":[129]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":12},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":23},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":19}],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2020-05-01T00:00:00"}
