{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3015448692","doi":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-201909r","title":"Finding a Stable Phillips Curve Relationship: A Persistence-Dependent Regression Model","display_name":"Finding a Stable Phillips Curve Relationship: A Persistence-Dependent Regression Model","publication_year":2020,"publication_date":"2020-04-08","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3015448692","doi":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-201909r","mag":"3015448692"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.26509/frbc-wp-201909r","doi":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-201909r","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-201909r","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210204369","display_name":"Working paper","issn_l":"2573-7945","issn":["2573-7945","2573-7953"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","raw_type":"report"},"volume":null,"type":"report","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5030399585","display_name":"Richard Ashley","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2043-3028","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2043-3028"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I859038795","display_name":"Virginia Tech","ror":"https://ror.org/02smfhw86","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I859038795"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Richard Ashley","raw_affiliation_strings":["Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I859038795"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5011299973","display_name":"Randal J. Verbrugge","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0276-447X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0276-447X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210109900","display_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland","ror":"https://ror.org/01wxdvj03","country_code":"US","type":"other","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1317239608","https://openalex.org/I4210109900"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Randal J. Verbrugge","raw_affiliation_strings":["Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0276-447X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210109900"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":12,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.9990000128746033,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.9990000128746033,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13399","display_name":"Unemployment and Economic Growth","score":0.000699999975040555,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11059","display_name":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/phillips-curve","display_name":"Phillips curve","score":0.9909999966621399},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/unemployment-gap","display_name":"unemployment gap","score":0.7749999761581421},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/inflation-persistence","display_name":"inflation persistence","score":0.7689999938011169},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/disinflation","display_name":"disinflation","score":0.6010000109672546},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/great-recession","display_name":"Great Recession","score":0.9589999914169312},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/parameter-stability","display_name":"parameter stability","score":0.5440000295639038}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778774626","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q220841","display_name":"Phillips curve","level":3,"score":0.8947088718414307},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C200941418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q273508","display_name":"Inflation (cosmology)","level":2,"score":0.7352850437164307},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780569737","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1228734","display_name":"Disinflation","level":3,"score":0.7140194773674011},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C83873408","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q192311","display_name":"Business cycle","level":2,"score":0.6993690729141235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781009140","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7170389","display_name":"Persistence (discontinuity)","level":2,"score":0.6849384307861328},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.6414585113525391},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.5745717287063599},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165556158","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q83937","display_name":"Keynesian economics","level":1,"score":0.5453892946243286},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778126366","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q41171","display_name":"Unemployment","level":2,"score":0.4616606831550598},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.3869204521179199},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126285488","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q178476","display_name":"Monetary policy","level":2,"score":0.29986047744750977},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139719470","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39680","display_name":"Macroeconomics","level":1,"score":0.12229666113853455},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33332235","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q18362","display_name":"Theoretical physics","level":1,"score":0.11312505602836609},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.11182498931884766},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.08835053443908691},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187320778","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1349130","display_name":"Geotechnical engineering","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.26509/frbc-wp-201909r","doi":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-201909r","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-201909r","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210204369","display_name":"Working paper","issn_l":"2573-7945","issn":["2573-7945","2573-7953"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","raw_type":"report"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":124,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W40048283","https://openalex.org/W127427766","https://openalex.org/W137425446","https://openalex.org/W324907199","https://openalex.org/W619677524","https://openalex.org/W628011563","https://openalex.org/W1483294473","https://openalex.org/W1490652375","https://openalex.org/W1517754918","https://openalex.org/W1540650127","https://openalex.org/W1552441292","https://openalex.org/W1591408631","https://openalex.org/W1599279755","https://openalex.org/W1633268707","https://openalex.org/W1762819836","https://openalex.org/W1871711604","https://openalex.org/W1965561045","https://openalex.org/W1979533782","https://openalex.org/W1990555690","https://openalex.org/W1990919285","https://openalex.org/W1994789213","https://openalex.org/W1996930675","https://openalex.org/W2000321935","https://openalex.org/W2001866606","https://openalex.org/W2004956580","https://openalex.org/W2013559856","https://openalex.org/W2017299421","https://openalex.org/W2017732813","https://openalex.org/W2022543663","https://openalex.org/W2022802444","https://openalex.org/W2024810644","https://openalex.org/W2027314034","https://openalex.org/W2028586633","https://openalex.org/W2032619616","https://openalex.org/W2035611161","https://openalex.org/W2036083907","https://openalex.org/W2039864532","https://openalex.org/W2041662795","https://openalex.org/W2043272814","https://openalex.org/W2047795071","https://openalex.org/W2049535810","https://openalex.org/W2051619913","https://openalex.org/W2055344690","https://openalex.org/W2059215693","https://openalex.org/W2060546141","https://openalex.org/W2066866124","https://openalex.org/W2068389585","https://openalex.org/W2070720254","https://openalex.org/W2072764827","https://openalex.org/W2078686744","https://openalex.org/W2090627007","https://openalex.org/W2101000159","https://openalex.org/W2111029850","https://openalex.org/W2111476139","https://openalex.org/W2139090977","https://openalex.org/W2149422992","https://openalex.org/W2153781119","https://openalex.org/W2154690504","https://openalex.org/W2170161887","https://openalex.org/W2178225550","https://openalex.org/W2216584302","https://openalex.org/W2226946823","https://openalex.org/W2235994718","https://openalex.org/W2245868882","https://openalex.org/W2254538648","https://openalex.org/W2284159247","https://openalex.org/W2285878143","https://openalex.org/W2296462944","https://openalex.org/W2320686922","https://openalex.org/W2325543414","https://openalex.org/W2522322338","https://openalex.org/W2527311338","https://openalex.org/W2555656805","https://openalex.org/W2611897193","https://openalex.org/W2615515399","https://openalex.org/W2725965019","https://openalex.org/W2749288741","https://openalex.org/W2766163035","https://openalex.org/W2779977156","https://openalex.org/W2803738985","https://openalex.org/W2883305788","https://openalex.org/W2885786306","https://openalex.org/W2886136027","https://openalex.org/W2888433823","https://openalex.org/W2889620376","https://openalex.org/W2906886808","https://openalex.org/W2912858823","https://openalex.org/W2913504359","https://openalex.org/W2915773248","https://openalex.org/W2941862574","https://openalex.org/W2954355036","https://openalex.org/W2957531255","https://openalex.org/W2959700094","https://openalex.org/W2962981809","https://openalex.org/W2969838513","https://openalex.org/W2979423200","https://openalex.org/W2991686893","https://openalex.org/W3016241292","https://openalex.org/W3036045639","https://openalex.org/W3121245699","https://openalex.org/W3121422851","https://openalex.org/W3121595883","https://openalex.org/W3121731989","https://openalex.org/W3121833493","https://openalex.org/W3121902295","https://openalex.org/W3122787145","https://openalex.org/W3122927531","https://openalex.org/W3123242033","https://openalex.org/W3123499721","https://openalex.org/W3123537321","https://openalex.org/W3123595022","https://openalex.org/W3124144106","https://openalex.org/W3124568425","https://openalex.org/W3124835383","https://openalex.org/W3125534408","https://openalex.org/W3125845993","https://openalex.org/W3125924855","https://openalex.org/W3161000074","https://openalex.org/W4230841866","https://openalex.org/W4230999197","https://openalex.org/W4232780216","https://openalex.org/W4236308713","https://openalex.org/W4285719527","https://openalex.org/W4300546927"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3125929953","https://openalex.org/W4320482018","https://openalex.org/W1884488358","https://openalex.org/W2807174202","https://openalex.org/W7029181245","https://openalex.org/W4302591872","https://openalex.org/W3142885780","https://openalex.org/W2954811257","https://openalex.org/W7099696661","https://openalex.org/W7101126377"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"We":[0],"establish":[1],"that":[2],"the":[3,21,41,51,78],"Phillips":[4,52],"curve":[5,53],"is":[6,59,86,92],"persistence-dependent:":[7],"inflation":[8,58],"responds":[9],"differently":[10],"to":[11,27],"persistent":[12,15],"versus":[13,17],"moderately":[14],"(or":[16],"transient)":[18],"fluctuations":[19],"in":[20,40],"unemployment":[22],"gap.":[23],"Previous":[24],"work":[25],"fails":[26],"model":[28,44],"this":[29],"dependence,":[30],"so":[31],"it":[32,71],"finds":[33],"numerous":[34],"\u201cinflation":[35],"puzzles\u201d\u2014such":[36],"as":[37,88],"missing":[38],"inflation/disinflation\u2014noted":[39],"literature.":[42],"Our":[43],"specification":[45],"eliminates":[46],"these":[47],"puzzles;":[48],"for":[49],"example,":[50],"has":[54],"not":[55,60],"weakened,":[56],"and":[57,70,91],"\u201cstubbornly":[61],"low\u201d":[62],"at":[63],"present.":[64],"The":[65,81],"model\u2019s":[66],"coefficients":[67],"are":[68],"stable,":[69],"provides":[72],"accurate":[73],"conditional":[74],"recursive":[75],"forecasts":[76],"through":[77],"Great":[79],"Recession.":[80],"persistence-dependent":[82],"relationship":[83],"we":[84],"uncover":[85],"interpretable":[87],"being":[89],"business-cycle-phase-dependent":[90],"thus":[93],"consistent":[94],"with":[95],"existing":[96],"theory.":[97]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-10-16T09:59:22.235173","created_date":"2020-04-17T00:00:00"}
