{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3000470240","doi":"https://doi.org/10.22533/at.ed.79020280112","title":"FORECASTING SMALL POPULATION MONTHLY FERTILITY AND MORTALITY DATA WITH SEASONAL TIME SERIES METHODS","display_name":"FORECASTING SMALL POPULATION MONTHLY FERTILITY AND MORTALITY DATA WITH SEASONAL TIME SERIES METHODS","publication_year":2020,"publication_date":"2020-01-28","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3000470240","doi":"https://doi.org/10.22533/at.ed.79020280112","mag":"3000470240"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.22533/at.ed.79020280112","doi":"https://doi.org/10.22533/at.ed.79020280112","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.22533/at.ed.79020280112","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"As Ci\u00eancias Sociais Aplicadas e a Interface com v\u00e1rios Saberes 2","raw_type":"book-chapter"},"volume":{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4239065596","display_name":"As Ci\u00eancias Sociais Aplicadas e a Interface com v\u00e1rios Saberes 2"},"type":"book-chapter","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10362/91961","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5051215329","display_name":"Jorge Miguel Bravo","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7389-5103","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7389-5103"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jorge Miguel Ventura Bravo","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5043614012","display_name":"Edviges Coelho","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0194-3847","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0194-3847"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Edviges Isabel Felizardo Coelho","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.00901074,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"158","last_page":"176"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.7437000274658203,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.7437000274658203,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12011","display_name":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","score":0.2515000104904175,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12205","display_name":"Time Series Analysis and Forecasting","score":0.0010000000474974513,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1711","display_name":"Signal Processing"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/seasonal-time-series","display_name":"seasonal time series","score":0.718999981880188},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/seasonal-arima-model","display_name":"seasonal ARIMA","score":0.9480000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/holt-winters-exponential-smoothing","display_name":"Holt-Winters exponential smoothing","score":0.847000002861023},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/state-space-models","display_name":"state-space model","score":0.996999979019165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/backtesting","display_name":"backtesting","score":0.5979999899864197},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-series-cross-validation","display_name":"time series cross-validation","score":0.8849999904632568},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/multi-step-forecasting","display_name":"multi-step forecasting","score":0.8169999718666077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prediction-intervals","display_name":"prediction intervals","score":0.8169999718666077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-uncertainty","display_name":"forecast uncertainty","score":0.7599999904632568}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C518429986","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q964401","display_name":"Fertility","level":3,"score":0.683101236820221},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143724316","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q312468","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","level":2,"score":0.6475557684898376},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.49966883659362793},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.4513220191001892},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.4258015751838684},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.42256468534469604},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.3659340739250183},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.2375163733959198},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.13577938079833984},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.04387196898460388},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151730666","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7205","display_name":"Paleontology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.22533/at.ed.79020280112","doi":"https://doi.org/10.22533/at.ed.79020280112","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.22533/at.ed.79020280112","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"As Ci\u00eancias Sociais Aplicadas e a Interface com v\u00e1rios Saberes 2","raw_type":"book-chapter"},{"id":"pmh:oai:run.unl.pt:10362/91961","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10362/91961","pdf_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10362/91961","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402433","display_name":"Portuguese National Funding Agency for Science, Research and Technology (RCAAP Project by FCT)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"book part"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:run.unl.pt:10362/91961","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10362/91961","pdf_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10362/91961","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402433","display_name":"Portuguese National Funding Agency for Science, Research and Technology (RCAAP Project by FCT)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"book part"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3000470240.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3000470240.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":1,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W4239065596"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2973612026","https://openalex.org/W2990930795","https://openalex.org/W3024752508","https://openalex.org/W7096480612","https://openalex.org/W7071086266","https://openalex.org/W4400043084","https://openalex.org/W1908035702","https://openalex.org/W2116285604","https://openalex.org/W2048310997","https://openalex.org/W2142848172"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Forecasts":[0],"of":[1,16,19,34,67,117,124,134,142],"small":[2],"population":[3,21,37],"monthly":[4,86,126,143],"fertility":[5],"and":[6,28,39,55,70,78,84,91,128,145],"mortality":[7],"data":[8,46,147],"are":[9],"a":[10,96,103,139],"critical":[11],"input":[12],"in":[13,115],"the":[14,32,36,63,89,112,122,149],"computation":[15],"subnational":[17],"forecasts":[18],"resident":[20],"since":[22],"they":[23],"determine,":[24],"together":[25],"with":[26,107],"internal":[27],"international":[29],"net":[30],"migration,":[31],"dynamics":[33],"both":[35,53],"size":[38],"its":[40],"age":[41],"structure.":[42],"Demographic":[43],"time":[44,72,98,140],"series":[45,73,99,141],"typically":[47],"exhibit":[48],"strong":[49],"seasonality":[50],"patterns":[51],"at":[52,88],"national":[54],"regional":[56,92],"levels.":[57],"In":[58],"this":[59],"paper,":[60],"we":[61,110],"evaluate":[62],"short-term":[64],"forecasting":[65,87,105,118],"accuracy":[66],"alternative":[68],"linear":[69],"non-linear":[71],"methods":[74],"(seasonal":[75],"ARIMA,":[76],"Holt-Winters":[77],"State":[79],"Space":[80],"models)":[81],"to":[82,156],"birth":[83,144],"death":[85,129,146],"local":[90],"level.":[93],"We":[94,137],"adopt":[95],"backtesting":[97],"cross-validation":[100],"approach":[101,106],"considering":[102],"multi-step":[104],"re-estimation.":[108],"Additionally,":[109],"investigate":[111],"model\u2019s":[113],"performance":[114],"terms":[116],"uncertainty":[119],"by":[120,159],"computing":[121],"percentage":[123],"actual":[125],"births":[127],"counts":[130],"which":[131],"fall":[132],"out":[133],"prediction":[135],"intervals.":[136],"use":[138],"for":[148],"25":[150],"Portuguese":[151],"NUTS3":[152],"regions":[153],"from":[154],"2000":[155],"2018,":[157],"disaggregated":[158],"sex.":[160]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-08T12:12:28.789561","created_date":"2020-01-23T00:00:00"}
