{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2996444868","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/en13010010","title":"Prediction of the Energy Consumption Variation Trend in South Africa based on ARIMA, NGM and NGM-ARIMA Models","display_name":"Prediction of the Energy Consumption Variation Trend in South Africa based on ARIMA, NGM and NGM-ARIMA Models","publication_year":2019,"publication_date":"2019-12-18","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2996444868","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/en13010010","mag":"2996444868"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/en13010010","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/en13010010","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/en13010010","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/1/10/pdf?version=1577340534","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S198098182","display_name":"Energies","issn_l":"1996-1073","issn":["1996-1073"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","norway-1","poland-140","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Energies","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/1/10/pdf?version=1577340534","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5038327620","display_name":"Minglu Ma","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210162190","display_name":"China University of Petroleum, East China","ror":"https://ror.org/05gbn2817","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210162190"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Minglu Ma","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao 266580, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao 266580, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210162190"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5100700255","display_name":"Zhuangzhuang Wang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7034-9871","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7034-9871","https://orcid.org/0009-0000-0454-613X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I211433327","display_name":"Ministry of Natural Resources","ror":"https://ror.org/02kxqx159","country_code":"CN","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I211433327","https://openalex.org/I4210127390"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210113896","display_name":"Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/026sv7t11","country_code":"CN","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210113896"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210116268","display_name":"Qingdao Institute of Marine Geology","ror":"https://ror.org/02aybg366","country_code":"CN","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2799486974","https://openalex.org/I4210116268"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Zhuangzhuang Wang","raw_affiliation_strings":["Key Laboratory of Gas Hydrate, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao Institution of Marine Geology, Qingdao 266071, China","Laboratory for Marine Mineral Resources, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266071, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Key Laboratory of Gas Hydrate, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao Institution of Marine Geology, Qingdao 266071, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I211433327","https://openalex.org/I4210116268"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Laboratory for Marine Mineral Resources, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266071, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210113896"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5100700255"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I211433327","https://openalex.org/I4210113896","https://openalex.org/I4210116268"],"apc_list":{"value":1800,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":1824},"apc_paid":{"value":1800,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":1824},"fwci":3.2221,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":35,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.92149584,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":90,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"13","issue":"1","first_page":"10","last_page":"10"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12368","display_name":"Grey System Theory Applications","score":0.9848999977111816,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12368","display_name":"Grey System Theory Applications","score":0.9848999977111816,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10438","display_name":"Energy, Environment, Economic Growth","score":0.008100000210106373,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.00419999985024333,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/load-forecasting","display_name":"load forecasting","score":0.9470000267028809},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/south-africa","display_name":"South Africa","score":0.7979999780654907},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/arima-model","display_name":"ARIMA model","score":0.7260000109672546},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/energy-demand","display_name":"energy demand","score":0.4000000059604645},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-series-forecasting","display_name":"time series forecasting","score":0.546999990940094}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24338571","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2566298","display_name":"Autoregressive integrated moving average","level":3,"score":0.9344106316566467},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780165032","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q16869822","display_name":"Energy consumption","level":2,"score":0.5648655891418457},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159877910","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2202883","display_name":"Autoregressive model","level":2,"score":0.528428852558136},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C189430467","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7293293","display_name":"Ranking (information retrieval)","level":2,"score":0.4981057643890381},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C30772137","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5164762","display_name":"Consumption (sociology)","level":2,"score":0.48982879519462585},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.47939252853393555},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.47354620695114136},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C150217764","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6803607","display_name":"Mean absolute percentage error","level":3,"score":0.45386648178100586},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.3837696313858032},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.2557874917984009},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.24110057950019836},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.15786385536193848},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139945424","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1940696","display_name":"Mean squared error","level":2,"score":0.11355558037757874},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.05749282240867615},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119599485","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43035","display_name":"Electrical engineering","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C36289849","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q34749","display_name":"Social science","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.3390/en13010010","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/en13010010","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/en13010010","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/1/10/pdf?version=1577340534","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S198098182","display_name":"Energies","issn_l":"1996-1073","issn":["1996-1073"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","norway-1","poland-140","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Energies","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2019:i:1:p:10-:d:299231","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/1/10/","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/en13010010","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/en13010010","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/en13010010","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/1/10/pdf?version=1577340534","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S198098182","display_name":"Energies","issn_l":"1996-1073","issn":["1996-1073"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","norway-1","poland-140","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Energies","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","score":0.685699999332428,"display_name":"Climate action"},{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/7","score":0.5690000057220459,"display_name":"Affordable and clean energy"},{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/9","score":0.4943999946117401,"display_name":"Industry, innovation and infrastructure"}],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/7","score":0.8999999761581421,"display_name":"Affordable and clean energy"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2996444868.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2996444868.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":34,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1590291697","https://openalex.org/W2001855203","https://openalex.org/W2003316645","https://openalex.org/W2018322394","https://openalex.org/W2018804362","https://openalex.org/W2023939221","https://openalex.org/W2030886099","https://openalex.org/W2035411179","https://openalex.org/W2038706367","https://openalex.org/W2045697784","https://openalex.org/W2055228149","https://openalex.org/W2069508080","https://openalex.org/W2082329117","https://openalex.org/W2083219184","https://openalex.org/W2088241642","https://openalex.org/W2108371921","https://openalex.org/W2110400808","https://openalex.org/W2156115056","https://openalex.org/W2275543810","https://openalex.org/W2340340482","https://openalex.org/W2351354891","https://openalex.org/W2396186156","https://openalex.org/W2541631431","https://openalex.org/W2548228048","https://openalex.org/W2733449013","https://openalex.org/W2760948241","https://openalex.org/W2773560649","https://openalex.org/W2784221760","https://openalex.org/W2883388482","https://openalex.org/W2885631883","https://openalex.org/W2903627172","https://openalex.org/W2909406056","https://openalex.org/W2924347204","https://openalex.org/W2965559850"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2969925657","https://openalex.org/W2883048966","https://openalex.org/W2941819812","https://openalex.org/W2182790131","https://openalex.org/W4316664260","https://openalex.org/W4411143788","https://openalex.org/W2368618878","https://openalex.org/W7054822268","https://openalex.org/W2318717281","https://openalex.org/W1969351593"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"South":[0,33,43,72,116,150],"Africa\u2019s":[1,44,73],"energy":[2,30,45,74,113,145,166],"consumption":[3,31,46,75,114,167],"takes":[4],"up":[5],"about":[6,126],"one-third":[7],"of":[8,29,42,125,144],"that":[9,99,111],"in":[10,19,32,115,128,149,157,169],"the":[11,16,27,40,85,100,112,122,129,141,153,158,165],"whole":[12],"African":[13,171],"continent,":[14],"ranking":[15],"first":[17],"place":[18],"Africa.":[20,34],"However,":[21],"there":[22],"are":[23,68,91],"few":[24],"researches":[25],"on":[26,39],"prediction":[28,108,154],"In":[35],"this":[36],"study,":[37],"based":[38],"data":[41],"during":[47,76],"1998\u20132016,":[48],"Autoregressive":[49],"Integrated":[50],"Moving":[51],"Average":[52],"(ARIMA)":[53],"model,":[54],"nonlinear":[55,60],"grey":[56,61],"model":[57,67],"(NGM)":[58],"and":[59,83,94,147,152],"model\u2013autoregressive":[62],"integrated":[63],"moving":[64],"average":[65],"(NGM-ARIMA)":[66],"adopted":[69],"to":[70],"predict":[71],"2017\u20132030.":[77],"After":[78],"using":[79],"these":[80],"NGM,":[81],"ARIMA":[82],"NGM-ARIMA,":[84],"mean":[86],"absolute":[87],"percent":[88],"errors":[89],"(MAPE)":[90],"2.827%,":[92],"2.655%":[93],"1.772%,":[95],"respectively,":[96],"which":[97],"indicates":[98],"predicted":[101],"result":[102,135],"has":[103],"very":[104],"high":[105],"reliability.":[106],"The":[107],"results":[109],"show":[110],"Africa":[117,151],"will":[118,136,160],"keep":[119],"increasing":[120],"with":[121],"growth":[123],"rate":[124],"7.49%":[127],"next":[130],"14":[131],"years.":[132],"This":[133],"research":[134,159],"provide":[137],"scientific":[138],"basis":[139],"for":[140,164],"policy":[142],"adjustment":[143],"supply":[146],"demand":[148],"techniques":[155],"used":[156],"have":[161],"reference":[162],"function":[163],"study":[168],"other":[170],"countries.":[172]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":11},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":5}],"updated_date":"2026-10-22T18:32:59.640997","created_date":"2019-12-26T00:00:00"}
