{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2993977029","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2785404","title":"How Informative are Central Bank Assessments of Macroeconomic Risks","display_name":"How Informative are Central Bank Assessments of Macroeconomic Risks","publication_year":2011,"publication_date":"2011-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2993977029","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2785404","mag":"2993977029"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2012:q:3:a:3","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb12q3a3.htm","pdf_url":"http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb12q3a3.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb12q3a3.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5049826718","display_name":"Malte Kn\u00fcppel","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0000-1912-8969","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0000-1912-8969"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I74623043","display_name":"Deutsche Bundesbank","ror":"https://ror.org/03jvfq589","country_code":"DE","type":"other","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I74623043"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Malte Kn\u00fcppel","raw_affiliation_strings":["Deutsche Bundesbank - Research Centre, Wilhelm-Epstein-Str. 14, D-60431 Frankfurt/Main, Germany","Deutsche Bundesbank Research Centre"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Deutsche Bundesbank - Research Centre, Wilhelm-Epstein-Str. 14, D-60431 Frankfurt/Main, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I74623043"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Deutsche Bundesbank Research Centre","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I74623043"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5045304768","display_name":"Guido Schultefrankenfeld","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6930-1480","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6930-1480"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I74623043","display_name":"Deutsche Bundesbank","ror":"https://ror.org/03jvfq589","country_code":"DE","type":"other","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I74623043"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Guido Schultefrankenfeld","raw_affiliation_strings":["Deutsche Bundesbank, Wilhelm-Epstein-Str. 14, Research Centre, Frankfurt/Main, DE Hesse 60431, Germany","Economist"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Deutsche Bundesbank, Wilhelm-Epstein-Str. 14, Research Centre, Frankfurt/Main, DE Hesse 60431, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I74623043"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Economist","institution_ids":[]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5049826718"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I74623043"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":7.6467,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":30,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.97389588,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.6987000107765198,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.6987000107765198,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.29809999465942383,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10127","display_name":"Banking stability, regulation, efficiency","score":0.0003000000142492354,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/central-bank-statements","display_name":"central bank statements","score":0.6650000214576721},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-error","display_name":"forecast error","score":0.7210000157356262},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bank-of-england","display_name":"Bank of England","score":0.9470000267028809},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sveriges-riksbank","display_name":"Sveriges Riksbank","score":0.996999979019165}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41458344","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q732577","display_name":"Publication","level":2,"score":0.6714749932289124},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C200941418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q273508","display_name":"Inflation (cosmology)","level":2,"score":0.6243921518325806},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122251271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q940039","display_name":"Ex-ante","level":2,"score":0.6026675701141357},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2992735868","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q66344","display_name":"Central bank","level":3,"score":0.5476911067962646},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.5099514722824097},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.4987044334411621},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4482189416885376},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126285488","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q178476","display_name":"Monetary policy","level":2,"score":0.4145162105560303},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139719470","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39680","display_name":"Macroeconomics","level":1,"score":0.2725903391838074},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.2219790518283844},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112698675","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37038","display_name":"Advertising","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33332235","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q18362","display_name":"Theoretical physics","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":8,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2012:q:3:a:3","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb12q3a3.htm","pdf_url":"http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb12q3a3.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:201113","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/47887/1/663648211.pdf","pdf_url":"https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/47887/1/663648211.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"mag:2993977029","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://autopapers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2785404","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210172589","display_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","issn_l":"1556-5068","issn":["1556-5068"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1318003438","host_organization_name":"RELX Group (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1318003438"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","raw_type":null},{"id":"mag:3121338549","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:201113","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-024143753","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10419/47887","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-024378172","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://digitool.hbz-nrw.de:1801/webclient/DeliveryManager?pid=4228846&amp;custom_att_2=simple_viewer","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:econstor.eu:10419/47887","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10419/47887","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401696","display_name":"Econstor (Econstor)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"doc-type:workingPaper"},{"id":"doi:10.2139/ssrn.2785404","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2785404","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2785404","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210172589","display_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","issn_l":"1556-5068","issn":["1556-5068"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1318003438","host_organization_name":"RELX Group (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1318003438"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2012:q:3:a:3","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb12q3a3.htm","pdf_url":"http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb12q3a3.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/8","score":0.550000011920929,"display_name":"Decent work and economic growth"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2993977029.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2993977029.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":4,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2040503026","https://openalex.org/W2266224171","https://openalex.org/W2270751125","https://openalex.org/W3124499869"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W1794066358","https://openalex.org/W2581234513","https://openalex.org/W3124864730","https://openalex.org/W2921655755","https://openalex.org/W1547535885","https://openalex.org/W7071211753","https://openalex.org/W4414984059","https://openalex.org/W3124737888","https://openalex.org/W3124747248","https://openalex.org/W3121753040"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Surveying":[0],"the":[1,23,36,41,49,53,58,63],"forecasting":[2],"practice":[3],"of":[4,25,57,60],"several":[5],"central":[6,50],"banks,":[7],"we":[8,67],"find":[9,70],"that":[10,40,75],"all":[11],"these":[12,26],"banks":[13],"issue":[14],"statements":[15],"about":[16],"risks":[17,27,34],"to":[18,35,45],"their":[19],"macroeconomic":[20,92],"forecasts.":[21],"Often":[22],"balance":[24],"is":[28,43],"assessed":[29],"as":[30],"well.":[31],"Upward":[32],"[downward]":[33],"forecast":[37,85],"commonly":[38],"imply":[39],"outturn":[42],"expected":[44],"lie":[46],"above":[47],"[below]":[48],"forecast.":[51],"Investigating":[52],"inflation":[54],"risk":[55,82,93],"forecasts":[56,94],"Bank":[59],"England":[61],"and":[62,84],"Sveriges":[64],"Riksbank,":[65],"however,":[66],"do":[68],"not":[69],"conclusive":[71],"evidence":[72],"for":[73,77],"informativeness,":[74],"is,":[76],"a":[78],"systematic":[79],"connection":[80],"between":[81],"assessments":[83],"errors.":[86],"Thus,":[87],"it":[88],"seems":[89],"questionable":[90],"whether":[91],"are":[95],"meaningful.":[96]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":4}],"updated_date":"2026-10-31T12:09:11.096373","created_date":"2019-12-13T00:00:00"}
