{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2992992225","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1086/707554","title":"Conditional Degree of Belief and Bayesian Inference","display_name":"Conditional Degree of Belief and Bayesian Inference","publication_year":2019,"publication_date":"2019-12-06","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2992992225","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1086/707554","mag":"2992992225"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1086/707554","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1086/707554","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1086/707554","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S147691735","display_name":"Philosophy of Science","issn_l":"0031-8248","issn":["0031-8248","1539-767X","1540-4684"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doyens","erih-plus","jufo-3","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311721","host_organization_name":"Cambridge University Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311721","https://openalex.org/P4310311702"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Cambridge University Press","University of Cambridge"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Philosophy of Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/11926/1/ConditionalProbability_v2.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5078348621","display_name":"Jan Sprenger","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0083-9685","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0083-9685"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I55143463","display_name":"University of Turin","ror":"https://ror.org/048tbm396","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I55143463"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Jan Sprenger","raw_affiliation_strings":["Center for Logic, Language and Cognition (LLC), Department of Philosophy and Educational Science, Universit\u00e0 degli Studi di Torino, Via Sant'Ottavio 20, 10124 Torino, Italy","audi-ences in Groningen, Sestri Levante, Tilburg and Turin"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Center for Logic, Language and Cognition (LLC), Department of Philosophy and Educational Science, Universit\u00e0 degli Studi di Torino, Via Sant'Ottavio 20, 10124 Torino, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55143463"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"audi-ences in Groningen, Sestri Levante, Tilburg and Turin","institution_ids":[]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5078348621"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55143463"],"apc_list":{"value":3550,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3550},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":5.7107,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":11,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.96325516,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":96},"biblio":{"volume":"87","issue":"2","first_page":"319","last_page":"335"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11477","display_name":"Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics","score":0.8086000084877014,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1211","display_name":"Philosophy"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/12","display_name":"Arts and Humanities"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11477","display_name":"Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics","score":0.8086000084877014,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1211","display_name":"Philosophy"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/12","display_name":"Arts and Humanities"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11303","display_name":"Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference","score":0.08910000324249268,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10778","display_name":"Philosophy of Biology and Scientific Explanation","score":0.04149999842047691,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1207","display_name":"History and Philosophy of Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/12","display_name":"Arts and Humanities"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-inference","display_name":"Bayesian inference","score":0.8700000047683716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/hypothesis-testing","display_name":"hypothesis testing","score":0.7099999785423279},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/evidence-evaluation","display_name":"evidence evaluation","score":0.5870000123977661},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/idealized-models","display_name":"idealized models","score":0.7559999823570251}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779513410","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25351567","display_name":"Credence","level":2,"score":0.9589884281158447},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44492722","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q327069","display_name":"Conditional probability","level":2,"score":0.6450716257095337},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776214188","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q408386","display_name":"Inference","level":2,"score":0.602520763874054},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134261354","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q938438","display_name":"Statistical inference","level":2,"score":0.5784660577774048},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160234255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812535","display_name":"Bayesian inference","level":3,"score":0.5663478374481201},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.551283597946167},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162376815","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2158281","display_name":"Frequentist inference","level":4,"score":0.5288088321685791},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C95167961","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4483495","display_name":"Fiducial inference","level":5,"score":0.5261568427085876},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C158600405","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5054566","display_name":"Causal inference","level":2,"score":0.4908822178840637},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.47084829211235046},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33825631","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17004731","display_name":"Chain rule (probability)","level":5,"score":0.46602535247802734},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33724603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812540","display_name":"Bayesian network","level":2,"score":0.45145970582962036},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C75455068","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1455566","display_name":"Frequentist probability","level":3,"score":0.43927818536758423},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C101112237","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4874481","display_name":"Bayesian statistics","level":4,"score":0.4162740111351013},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4094504714012146},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.3773614168167114},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.355562686920166},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C57830394","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q278079","display_name":"Posterior probability","level":3,"score":0.30425602197647095},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.27478867769241333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.21990352869033813},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C103982235","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7309594","display_name":"Regular conditional probability","level":4,"score":0.18053558468818665}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":10,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1086/707554","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1086/707554","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1086/707554","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S147691735","display_name":"Philosophy of Science","issn_l":"0031-8248","issn":["0031-8248","1539-767X","1540-4684"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doyens","erih-plus","jufo-3","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311721","host_organization_name":"Cambridge University Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311721","https://openalex.org/P4310311702"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Cambridge University Press","University of Cambridge"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Philosophy of Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:philsci-archive.pitt.edu:11926","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/11926/1/ConditionalProbability_v2.pdf","pdf_url":"http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/11926/1/ConditionalProbability_v2.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401282","display_name":"PhilSci-Archive (University of Pittsburgh)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I170201317","host_organization_name":"University of Pittsburgh","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I170201317"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:philsci-archive.pitt.edu:12304","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/12304/1/ConditionalProbability_v3.pdf","pdf_url":"http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/12304/1/ConditionalProbability_v3.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401282","display_name":"PhilSci-Archive (University of Pittsburgh)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I170201317","host_organization_name":"University of Pittsburgh","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I170201317"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:philsci-archive.pitt.edu:13515","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/13515/1/ConditionalProbability_v5.pdf","pdf_url":"http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/13515/1/ConditionalProbability_v5.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401282","display_name":"PhilSci-Archive (University of Pittsburgh)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I170201317","host_organization_name":"University of Pittsburgh","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I170201317"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:philsci-archive.pitt.edu:17174","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/17174/1/ConditionalProbability_v12.pdf","pdf_url":"https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/17174/1/ConditionalProbability_v12.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401282","display_name":"PhilSci-Archive (University of Pittsburgh)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I170201317","host_organization_name":"University of Pittsburgh","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I170201317"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Published Article or Volume"},{"id":"pmh:oai:philsci-archive.pitt.edu:11798","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/11798/1/ConditionalProbability.pdf","pdf_url":"http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/11798/1/ConditionalProbability.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401282","display_name":"PhilSci-Archive (University of Pittsburgh)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I170201317","host_organization_name":"University of Pittsburgh","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I170201317"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:iris.unito.it:2318/1724987","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/2318/1724987","pdf_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/2318/1724987","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400637","display_name":"Institutional Research Information System University of Turin (University of Turin)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I55143463","host_organization_name":"University of Turin","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I55143463"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:philpapers.org/rec/SPRCDO","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://philpapers.org/rec/SPRCDO","pdf_url":"https://philpapers.org/archive/SPRCDO.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402130","display_name":"PhilPapers (PhilPapers Foundation)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:philarchive.org/rec/SPRCDO","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://philarchive.org/rec/SPRCDO","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402130","display_name":"PhilPapers (PhilPapers Foundation)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},{"id":"mag:2195247252","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/11798/1/ConditionalProbability.pdf","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:philsci-archive.pitt.edu:11926","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/11926/1/ConditionalProbability_v2.pdf","pdf_url":"http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/11926/1/ConditionalProbability_v2.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401282","display_name":"PhilSci-Archive (University of Pittsburgh)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I170201317","host_organization_name":"University of Pittsburgh","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I170201317"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G1200340411","display_name":"Making Scientific Inferences More Objective","funder_award_id":"640638","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320338335","funder_display_name":"H2020 European Research Council"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320338335","display_name":"H2020 European Research Council","ror":"https://ror.org/0472cxd90"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2992992225.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2992992225.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":92,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W127422594","https://openalex.org/W151620691","https://openalex.org/W176399512","https://openalex.org/W216263296","https://openalex.org/W596488402","https://openalex.org/W626142433","https://openalex.org/W636327003","https://openalex.org/W1215941466","https://openalex.org/W1485056984","https://openalex.org/W1498066347","https://openalex.org/W1510271585","https://openalex.org/W1517123228","https://openalex.org/W1547322272","https://openalex.org/W1554331761","https://openalex.org/W1565693361","https://openalex.org/W1590902735","https://openalex.org/W1846728806","https://openalex.org/W1897029093","https://openalex.org/W1900523596","https://openalex.org/W1964567319","https://openalex.org/W1965761421","https://openalex.org/W1972855439","https://openalex.org/W1989280983","https://openalex.org/W1996538064","https://openalex.org/W2001798211","https://openalex.org/W2011975683","https://openalex.org/W2013953457","https://openalex.org/W2015285946","https://openalex.org/W2017080670","https://openalex.org/W2021612842","https://openalex.org/W2027948337","https://openalex.org/W2040775764","https://openalex.org/W2043017889","https://openalex.org/W2049954094","https://openalex.org/W2050283732","https://openalex.org/W2056099894","https://openalex.org/W2080346044","https://openalex.org/W2100539273","https://openalex.org/W2100956194","https://openalex.org/W2104128511","https://openalex.org/W2105088885","https://openalex.org/W2105420605","https://openalex.org/W2107326619","https://openalex.org/W2109019750","https://openalex.org/W2112303414","https://openalex.org/W2118025689","https://openalex.org/W2125484397","https://openalex.org/W2126163471","https://openalex.org/W2126239092","https://openalex.org/W2128785381","https://openalex.org/W2133752818","https://openalex.org/W2134278517","https://openalex.org/W2134346792","https://openalex.org/W2141027875","https://openalex.org/W2145860152","https://openalex.org/W2151403510","https://openalex.org/W2158216009","https://openalex.org/W2159937421","https://openalex.org/W2161585316","https://openalex.org/W2162978983","https://openalex.org/W2170428785","https://openalex.org/W2276360765","https://openalex.org/W2292840578","https://openalex.org/W2294604761","https://openalex.org/W2419430372","https://openalex.org/W2481395538","https://openalex.org/W2517306840","https://openalex.org/W2586317289","https://openalex.org/W2613304483","https://openalex.org/W2618307164","https://openalex.org/W2622646264","https://openalex.org/W2734991164","https://openalex.org/W2767443199","https://openalex.org/W2800171621","https://openalex.org/W2898926594","https://openalex.org/W2920186917","https://openalex.org/W2951147613","https://openalex.org/W2981803686","https://openalex.org/W3022940228","https://openalex.org/W3143347354","https://openalex.org/W4210840543","https://openalex.org/W4211177544","https://openalex.org/W4230310324","https://openalex.org/W4232632925","https://openalex.org/W4240874411","https://openalex.org/W4242534497","https://openalex.org/W4247172179","https://openalex.org/W4251531981","https://openalex.org/W4253318502","https://openalex.org/W4255871753","https://openalex.org/W4285719527","https://openalex.org/W6633891752"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2981443250","https://openalex.org/W2195247252","https://openalex.org/W1964999035","https://openalex.org/W143414991","https://openalex.org/W2981803686","https://openalex.org/W2505481419","https://openalex.org/W2105088885","https://openalex.org/W2475759685","https://openalex.org/W2091782136","https://openalex.org/W7204655062"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Why":[0],"are":[1,35],"conditional":[2,31,44],"degrees":[3],"of":[4,30,43,46,63,70,73,83],"belief":[5],"in":[6,75,92],"an":[7],"observation":[8],"E,":[9],"given":[10],"a":[11,40],"statistical":[12,53],"hypothesis":[13],"H,":[14],"aligned":[15],"with":[16,89],"the":[17,58,61,68,81],"objective":[18],"probabilities":[19],"expressed":[20],"by":[21],"H?":[22],"After":[23],"showing":[24],"that":[25],"standard":[26],"replies":[27],"(ratio":[28],"analysis":[29,42,56,85],"probability,":[32],"chance-credence":[33,64],"coordination)":[34],"not":[36],"satisfactory,":[37],"I":[38,79],"develop":[39],"suppositional":[41],"degree":[45],"belief,":[47],"transferring":[48],"Ramsey\u2019s":[49],"classical":[50],"proposal":[51],"to":[52],"inference.":[54,77],"The":[55],"saves":[57],"alignment,":[59],"explains":[60],"role":[62],"coordination,":[65],"and":[66],"rebuts":[67],"charge":[69],"arbitrary":[71],"assessment":[72],"evidence":[74],"Bayesian":[76,87],"Finally,":[78],"explore":[80],"implications":[82],"this":[84],"for":[86],"reasoning":[88],"idealized":[90],"models":[91],"science.":[93]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2019-12-13T00:00:00"}
