{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2977844972","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1365712719875753","title":"Probability reasoning in judicial fact-finding","display_name":"Probability reasoning in judicial fact-finding","publication_year":2019,"publication_date":"2019-09-30","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2977844972","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1365712719875753","mag":"2977844972"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1177/1365712719875753","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1365712719875753","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1365712719875753","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S112693977","display_name":"The International Journal of Evidence & Proof","issn_l":"1365-7127","issn":["1365-7127","1740-5572"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-20","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320017","host_organization_name":"SAGE Publishing","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320017"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["SAGE Publishing"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"The International Journal of Evidence & Proof","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Ian Hunt","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2093-1083","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2093-1083"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I56590836","display_name":"Monash University","ror":"https://ror.org/02bfwt286","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I56590836"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Ian Hunt","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Mathematics, Monash University, Australia"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2093-1083","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Mathematics, Monash University, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I56590836"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5062433008","display_name":"Justice Mostyn","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Justice Mostyn","raw_affiliation_strings":["Royal Courts of Justice, London, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Royal Courts of Justice, London, UK","institution_ids":[]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I56590836"],"apc_list":{"value":3650,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3650},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":8.7272,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":9,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.97549333,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":90,"max":97},"biblio":{"volume":"24","issue":"1","first_page":"75","last_page":"94"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14115","display_name":"Legal processes and jurisprudence","score":0.9961000084877014,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3308","display_name":"Law"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14115","display_name":"Legal processes and jurisprudence","score":0.9961000084877014,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3308","display_name":"Law"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13583","display_name":"Jury Decision Making Processes","score":0.0006000000284984708,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3308","display_name":"Law"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14493","display_name":"Criminal Law and Evidence","score":0.0005000000237487257,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3308","display_name":"Law"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-reasoning","display_name":"probabilistic reasoning","score":0.8259999752044678},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/judicial-fact-finding","display_name":"judicial fact-finding","score":0.9940000176429749},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-reasoning","display_name":"Bayesian reasoning","score":0.7400000095367432},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/binary-methods","display_name":"binary methods","score":0.8220000267028809},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/child-welfare-law","display_name":"child welfare law","score":0.4390000104904175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/legal-reasoning","display_name":"legal reasoning","score":0.3140000104904175}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.8337602019309998},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778449503","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q329777","display_name":"Appeal","level":2,"score":0.6052762269973755},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.4206112325191498},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.3790355920791626},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.31182414293289185},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.18343260884284973},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.1680229902267456}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1177/1365712719875753","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1365712719875753","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1365712719875753","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S112693977","display_name":"The International Journal of Evidence & Proof","issn_l":"1365-7127","issn":["1365-7127","1740-5572"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-20","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320017","host_organization_name":"SAGE Publishing","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320017"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["SAGE Publishing"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"The International Journal of Evidence & Proof","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au:1885/733813706","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/1885/733813706","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402539","display_name":"ANU Open Research (Australian National University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I118347636","host_organization_name":"Australian National University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I118347636"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Conference paper"},{"id":"pmh:oai:openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au:1885/733813708","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/1885/733813708","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402539","display_name":"ANU Open Research (Australian National University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I118347636","host_organization_name":"Australian National University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I118347636"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Evidence and Proof","raw_type":"Journal article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.6601999998092651,"display_name":"Peace, justice, and strong institutions","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":60,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W785296914","https://openalex.org/W1568586753","https://openalex.org/W1582040817","https://openalex.org/W1786998938","https://openalex.org/W1861935076","https://openalex.org/W1884871843","https://openalex.org/W1980534953","https://openalex.org/W2017529320","https://openalex.org/W2023943903","https://openalex.org/W2038353186","https://openalex.org/W2040804115","https://openalex.org/W2050998121","https://openalex.org/W2051652878","https://openalex.org/W2101114811","https://openalex.org/W2107890688","https://openalex.org/W2113655903","https://openalex.org/W2134782041","https://openalex.org/W2152648747","https://openalex.org/W2155160391","https://openalex.org/W2160342959","https://openalex.org/W2161868110","https://openalex.org/W2233566993","https://openalex.org/W2465463612","https://openalex.org/W2477060389","https://openalex.org/W2483508289","https://openalex.org/W2494906225","https://openalex.org/W2497982142","https://openalex.org/W2499133132","https://openalex.org/W2580480801","https://openalex.org/W2598639751","https://openalex.org/W2606827339","https://openalex.org/W2757297150","https://openalex.org/W2764551682","https://openalex.org/W2765743562","https://openalex.org/W2775258805","https://openalex.org/W2803437312","https://openalex.org/W2891971646","https://openalex.org/W2902507048","https://openalex.org/W2906851409","https://openalex.org/W2909339350","https://openalex.org/W2919093910","https://openalex.org/W2922157575","https://openalex.org/W2981803686","https://openalex.org/W3121804582","https://openalex.org/W3121899721","https://openalex.org/W3121951811","https://openalex.org/W3122884435","https://openalex.org/W3123580120","https://openalex.org/W3123601434","https://openalex.org/W3125469030","https://openalex.org/W3126075036","https://openalex.org/W4205325327","https://openalex.org/W4230710305","https://openalex.org/W4230900352","https://openalex.org/W4241041649","https://openalex.org/W4242534497","https://openalex.org/W4246095787","https://openalex.org/W4249562947","https://openalex.org/W4302602534","https://openalex.org/W4391983312"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2038477402","https://openalex.org/W4285259065","https://openalex.org/W7167847056","https://openalex.org/W2787962658","https://openalex.org/W2140469066","https://openalex.org/W2737488482","https://openalex.org/W7166452426","https://openalex.org/W2201733234","https://openalex.org/W3157529902","https://openalex.org/W161264332"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"We":[0,86,107],"argue":[1,20],"that":[2,21,88,94],"the":[3,37,63,80,89,95,99,120,124],"laws":[4],"of":[5,39],"probability":[6,40,96],"promote":[7],"coherent":[8],"fact-finding":[9],"and":[10,51,93,105,123],"avoid":[11],"potentially":[12],"unjust":[13],"logical":[14],"contradictions.":[15],"But":[16],"we":[17,35,61],"do":[18],"not":[19],"a":[22],"probabilistic":[23,67,110],"Bayesian":[24],"approach":[25],"is":[26,79,91],"sufficient":[27],"or":[28],"even":[29],"necessary":[30],"for":[31],"good":[32],"fact-finding.":[33],"First,":[34],"explain":[36],"use":[38,109],"reasoning":[41,68,111],"in":[42,70,98],"Re":[43,52,71,84],"D":[44],"(A":[45,54],"Child)":[46,55],"[2014]":[47],"EWHC":[48,57],"121":[49],"(Fam)":[50],"L":[53],"[2017]":[56],"3707":[58],"(Fam).":[59],"Then":[60],"criticise":[62],"attack":[64,90],"on":[65,83],"this":[66],"found":[69],"A":[72],"(Children)":[73],"[2018]":[74],"EWCA":[75],"Civ":[76],"1718,":[77],"which":[78],"appeal":[81],"decision":[82],"L.":[85],"conclude":[87],"unjustified":[92],"statements":[97],"two":[100],"cases":[101],"were":[102],"both":[103],"valid":[104],"useful.":[106],"also":[108],"to":[112,117],"enlighten":[113],"legal":[114],"principles":[115],"related":[116],"inherent":[118],"probability,":[119],"Binary":[121],"Method":[122],"blue":[125],"bus":[126],"paradox.":[127]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-10-14T16:39:01.820549","created_date":"2019-10-10T00:00:00"}