{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2969282900","doi":"https://doi.org/10.22077/jwhr.2019.1053","title":"Comparative Study Among Different Time Series Models for Monthly Rainfall Forecasting in Shiraz Synoptic Station, Iran","display_name":"Comparative Study Among Different Time Series Models for Monthly Rainfall Forecasting in Shiraz Synoptic Station, Iran","publication_year":2018,"publication_date":"2018-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2969282900","doi":"https://doi.org/10.22077/jwhr.2019.1053","mag":"2969282900"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:5f6e0712940141c2aafad85599908af5","doi":"https://doi.org/10.22077/jwhr.2019.1053","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/5f6e0712940141c2aafad85599908af5","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Water Harvesting Research, Vol 3, Iss 1&2, Pp 29-39 (2018)","raw_type":"article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5101407943","display_name":"Mehdi Bahrami","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9935-7899","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9935-7899","https://orcid.org/0009-0002-7511-8380","https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6172-6196"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4400600978","display_name":"Fasa University","ror":"https://ror.org/03a77cf20","country_code":"IR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4400600978"]}],"countries":["IR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mehdi Bahrami","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Fasa University, Fasa, Iran"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9935-7899","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Fasa University, Fasa, Iran","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4400600978"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5025110478","display_name":"Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4686-0930","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4686-0930"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4400600978","display_name":"Fasa University","ror":"https://ror.org/03a77cf20","country_code":"IR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4400600978"]}],"countries":["IR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, Fasa University, Fasa, Iran"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4686-0930","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, Fasa University, Fasa, Iran","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4400600978"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5010209031","display_name":"Abdol Rassoul Zarei","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2735-0778","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2735-0778"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4400600978","display_name":"Fasa University","ror":"https://ror.org/03a77cf20","country_code":"IR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4400600978"]}],"countries":["IR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Abdol Rassoul Zarei","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Range and Watershed Management, Faculty of Agriculture, Fasa University, Fasa, Iran"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2735-0778","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Range and Watershed Management, Faculty of Agriculture, Fasa University, Fasa, Iran","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4400600978"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5078690923","display_name":"Mohammad Mehdi Moghimi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2515-0318","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2515-0318"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4400600978","display_name":"Fasa University","ror":"https://ror.org/03a77cf20","country_code":"IR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4400600978"]}],"countries":["IR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mohammad Mehdi Moghimi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Fasa University, Fasa, Iran"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2515-0318","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Fasa University, Fasa, Iran","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4400600978"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5036280636","display_name":"Mohammad Javad Amiri","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2633-0572","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2633-0572"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4400600978","display_name":"Fasa University","ror":"https://ror.org/03a77cf20","country_code":"IR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4400600978"]}],"countries":["IR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mohammad Javad Amiri","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Fasa University, Fasa, Iran"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2633-0572","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Fasa University, Fasa, Iran","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4400600978"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4400600978"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.1183,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":1,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.45248317,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":93},"biblio":{"volume":"3","issue":null,"first_page":"29","last_page":"39"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11490","display_name":"Hydrological Forecasting Using AI","score":0.75,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2305","display_name":"Environmental Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11490","display_name":"Hydrological Forecasting Using AI","score":0.75,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2305","display_name":"Environmental Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.09830000251531601,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11234","display_name":"Precipitation Measurement and Analysis","score":0.07519999891519547,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/monthly-rainfall-forecasting","display_name":"monthly rainfall forecasting","score":0.9959999918937683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-series-models","display_name":"time series models","score":0.6430000066757202},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/model-selection","display_name":"model selection","score":0.45399999618530273}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C74883015","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q290467","display_name":"Autoregressive\u2013moving-average model","level":3,"score":0.5955610275268555},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143724316","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q312468","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","level":2,"score":0.5165578126907349},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.48144954442977905},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.4697361886501312},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780092901","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3433612","display_name":"Correlation coefficient","level":2,"score":0.4484923183917999},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132480984","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2034239","display_name":"Goodness of fit","level":2,"score":0.4400864243507385},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C82257358","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q895497","display_name":"Box\u2013Jenkins","level":4,"score":0.4307398200035095},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.42764925956726074},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.413386732339859},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.37531086802482605},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.36505648493766785},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159877910","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2202883","display_name":"Autoregressive model","level":2,"score":0.25307875871658325},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24338571","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2566298","display_name":"Autoregressive integrated moving average","level":3,"score":0.21805265545845032},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.19887962937355042},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.05924785137176514},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151730666","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7205","display_name":"Paleontology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:5f6e0712940141c2aafad85599908af5","doi":"https://doi.org/10.22077/jwhr.2019.1053","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/5f6e0712940141c2aafad85599908af5","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Water Harvesting Research, Vol 3, Iss 1&2, Pp 29-39 (2018)","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"mag:2969282900","doi":"https://doi.org/10.22077/jwhr.2019.1053","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://jwhr.birjand.ac.ir/article_1053_59e33c9bc656d2aafa316543b97c3d7e.pdf","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","score":0.685699999332428,"display_name":"Climate action"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":18,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1882805135","https://openalex.org/W1980160042","https://openalex.org/W1998808712","https://openalex.org/W2010433222","https://openalex.org/W2014958026","https://openalex.org/W2023533823","https://openalex.org/W2031292142","https://openalex.org/W2051843008","https://openalex.org/W2101449633","https://openalex.org/W2130506148","https://openalex.org/W2142635246","https://openalex.org/W2151021446","https://openalex.org/W2154784139","https://openalex.org/W2172498373","https://openalex.org/W2179869768","https://openalex.org/W2288297315","https://openalex.org/W2313953460","https://openalex.org/W2798056406"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2288297315","https://openalex.org/W2584302528","https://openalex.org/W2308890061","https://openalex.org/W2735990328","https://openalex.org/W4300671856","https://openalex.org/W2336179307","https://openalex.org/W4392590820","https://openalex.org/W2739059526","https://openalex.org/W2612624016","https://openalex.org/W2899115523"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"In":[0],"this":[1,77,107,114],"research,":[2],"monthly":[3,56,116],"rainfall":[4,57,74,117],"of":[5,52,82,106,138],"Shiraz":[6],"synoptic":[7],"station":[8],"from":[9],"March":[10,62],"1971":[11],"to":[12,42,46,64],"February":[13,65],"2016":[14],"was":[15,36,67],"studied":[16],"using":[17],"different":[18],"time":[19],"series":[20],"models":[21],"by":[22,98],"ITSM":[23],"Software.":[24],"Results":[25,133],"showed":[26,134],"that":[27,126,146],"the":[28,37,43,48,53,55,72,91,95,99,104,122,127,135,139,147,152],"ARMA":[29,100,148],"(1,12)":[30,101,149],"model":[31,39,102,108,128,150,154],"based":[32,112],"on":[33,113],"Hannan-Rissanen":[34],"method":[35],"best":[38],"which":[40],"fitted":[41],"data.":[44],"Then,":[45],"assess":[47],"verification":[49],"and":[50,69,86,94],"accuracy":[51],"model,":[54,115],"for":[58,121],"60":[59,124],"months":[60,125],"(from":[61],"2011":[63],"2016)":[66],"forecasted":[68],"compared":[70],"with":[71],"observed":[73,92],"values":[75,97,118],"in":[76,109],"period.":[78],"The":[79],"determination":[80],"coefficient":[81],"99.86":[83],"percent":[84],"(R2=0.9986)":[85],"positive":[87],"correlation":[88],"(P\u02c20.05)":[89],"between":[90],"data":[93],"predicted":[96,120],"illustrates":[103],"goodness":[105],"prediction.":[110],"Finally,":[111],"were":[119],"next":[123],"had":[129],"not":[130],"been":[131],"trained.":[132],"forecasting":[136],"ability":[137],"chosen":[140],"model.":[141],"So,":[142],"it":[143],"can":[144],"conclude":[145],"is":[151],"best-fitted":[153],"overall.":[155]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-10-27T15:51:10.671819","created_date":"2019-08-29T00:00:00"}