{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2963877236","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2991/ijcis.d.190626.001","title":"A Fuzzy-Random Extension of the Lee\u2013Carter Mortality Prediction Model","display_name":"A Fuzzy-Random Extension of the Lee\u2013Carter Mortality Prediction Model","publication_year":2019,"publication_date":"2019-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2963877236","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2991/ijcis.d.190626.001","mag":"2963877236"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.2991/ijcis.d.190626.001","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2991/ijcis.d.190626.001","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2991/ijcis.d.190626.001","pdf_url":"https://www.atlantis-press.com/article/125913525.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S190680769","display_name":"International Journal of Computational Intelligence Systems","issn_l":"1875-6883","issn":["1875-6883","1875-6891"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","oarl","poland-70","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319965","host_organization_name":"Springer Nature","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Computational Intelligence Systems","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://www.atlantis-press.com/article/125913525.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5025449314","display_name":"Jorge de Andr\u00e9s S\u00e1nchez","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7715-779X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7715-779X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I55952717","display_name":"Universitat Rovira i Virgili","ror":"https://ror.org/00g5sqv46","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I55952717"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Jorge de Andr\u00e9s-S\u00e1nchez","raw_affiliation_strings":["Social and Business Research Laboratory. Business Management Department. Rovira i Virgili University. Av. Universitat 1, 43204 Reus (Spain)"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Social and Business Research Laboratory. Business Management Department. Rovira i Virgili University. Av. Universitat 1, 43204 Reus (Spain)","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55952717"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5068679394","display_name":"Laura Gonz\u00e1lez-Vila Puchades","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4824-5894","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4824-5894"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Laura Gonz\u00e1lez-Vila Puchades","raw_affiliation_strings":["\ud835\udc5b 1 \uf067 , \ud835\udc5a ,"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"\ud835\udc5b 1 \uf067 , \ud835\udc5a ,","institution_ids":[]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5025449314"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55952717"],"apc_list":{"value":2490,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2490},"apc_paid":{"value":2490,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2490},"fwci":3.3938,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":11,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.92376514,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":97},"biblio":{"volume":"12","issue":"2","first_page":"775","last_page":"775"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12011","display_name":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","score":0.7949000000953674,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12011","display_name":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","score":0.7949000000953674,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12135","display_name":"Fuzzy Systems and Optimization","score":0.20360000431537628,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10968","display_name":"Statistical Distribution Estimation and Applications","score":0.00019999999494757503,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/lee-carter-model","display_name":"Lee-Carter model","score":0.9850000143051147},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mortality-forecasting","display_name":"mortality forecasting","score":0.7009999752044678},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/triangular-fuzzy-numbers","display_name":"triangular fuzzy numbers","score":0.9779999852180481},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fuzzy-regression","display_name":"fuzzy regression","score":0.828000009059906},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/arima-time-series","display_name":"ARIMA time series","score":0.6809999942779541},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/life-expectancy","display_name":"life expectancy","score":0.8939999938011169},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probability-of-death","display_name":"probability of death","score":0.7009999752044678}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778029271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5421931","display_name":"Extension (predicate logic)","level":2,"score":0.8325631618499756},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C58166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q224821","display_name":"Fuzzy logic","level":2,"score":0.5105375051498413},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5091518759727478},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.40313997864723206},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.3747873306274414},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.3608492612838745},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.2934280037879944},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199360897","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9143","display_name":"Programming language","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":5,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.2991/ijcis.d.190626.001","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2991/ijcis.d.190626.001","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2991/ijcis.d.190626.001","pdf_url":"https://www.atlantis-press.com/article/125913525.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S190680769","display_name":"International Journal of Computational Intelligence Systems","issn_l":"1875-6883","issn":["1875-6883","1875-6891"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","oarl","poland-70","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319965","host_organization_name":"Springer Nature","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Computational Intelligence Systems","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/139663","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/2445/139663","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401653","display_name":"Dip\u00f2sit Digital de la Universitat de Barcelona (Universitat de Barcelona)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I71999127","host_organization_name":"Universitat de Barcelona","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I71999127"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Articles publicats en revistes (Matem\u00e0tica Econ\u00f2mica, Financera i Actuarial)","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:urv.cat:imarina:5874626","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11797/imarina5874626","pdf_url":"https://repositori.urv.cat/repositori/getDocument/imarina%3A5874626?ds=DocumentPrincipal&mime=application/pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S7407055111","display_name":"Rovira & Virgili repository","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"International Journal Of Computational Intelligence Systems. 12 (2): 775-794","raw_type":"Journal Publications"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:2b4cd2d6bf94498cad674b14ab569b8c","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/2b4cd2d6bf94498cad674b14ab569b8c","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Computational Intelligence Systems (null)","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:recercat.cat:2072/361276","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/2445/139663","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402147","display_name":"RECERCAT (Consorci de Serveis Universitaris de Catalunya)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4210090028","host_organization_name":"Consorci de Serveis Universitaris de Catalunya","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210090028"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"public-domain","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/public-domain","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.2991/ijcis.d.190626.001","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2991/ijcis.d.190626.001","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2991/ijcis.d.190626.001","pdf_url":"https://www.atlantis-press.com/article/125913525.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S190680769","display_name":"International Journal of Computational Intelligence Systems","issn_l":"1875-6883","issn":["1875-6883","1875-6891"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","oarl","poland-70","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319965","host_organization_name":"Springer Nature","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Computational Intelligence Systems","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2963877236.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2963877236.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":33,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W45219206","https://openalex.org/W607327601","https://openalex.org/W1560488810","https://openalex.org/W1966580882","https://openalex.org/W1969498530","https://openalex.org/W1975346805","https://openalex.org/W1980575834","https://openalex.org/W1993742462","https://openalex.org/W2005665319","https://openalex.org/W2007955323","https://openalex.org/W2019388858","https://openalex.org/W2025917720","https://openalex.org/W2031044368","https://openalex.org/W2049649231","https://openalex.org/W2057268325","https://openalex.org/W2060943133","https://openalex.org/W2070632438","https://openalex.org/W2086505712","https://openalex.org/W2101518413","https://openalex.org/W2118795114","https://openalex.org/W2139551138","https://openalex.org/W2165466912","https://openalex.org/W2169284845","https://openalex.org/W2294954786","https://openalex.org/W2475812212","https://openalex.org/W2500356871","https://openalex.org/W2508467282","https://openalex.org/W2556271764","https://openalex.org/W2791073667","https://openalex.org/W3125411422","https://openalex.org/W4230644069","https://openalex.org/W4241684668","https://openalex.org/W4386694893"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4405736246","https://openalex.org/W2031044368","https://openalex.org/W2500356871","https://openalex.org/W2294954786","https://openalex.org/W7099126617","https://openalex.org/W2793154968","https://openalex.org/W2115041626","https://openalex.org/W3112878378","https://openalex.org/W3198159694","https://openalex.org/W226692222"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0],"Lee-Carter":[1,47,166],"model":[2,8,19,48,167],"is":[3,60,71,84,113,138],"a":[4,42,102,158],"useful":[5],"dynamic":[6],"stochastic":[7],"to":[9,28,36,117],"represent":[10],"the":[11,22,25,29,37,46,52,65,68,78,81,106,141,153],"evolution":[12],"of":[13,45,54,57,67,80,94,143,148,161],"central":[14,123],"mortality":[15,30,124],"rates":[16,125],"throughout":[17],"time.This":[18],"only":[20],"considers":[21],"uncertainty":[23,53,79],"about":[24],"coefficient":[26],"related":[27],"trend":[31],"over":[32],"time":[33,76],"but":[34,87],"not":[35],"age-dependent":[38,82],"coefficients.This":[39],"paper":[40],"proposes":[41],"fuzzy-random":[43,107],"extension":[44,108],"that":[49],"allows":[50],"quantifying":[51],"both":[55],"kinds":[56],"parameters.As":[58],"it":[59,112],"commonplace":[61],"in":[62,152],"actuarial":[63],"literature,":[64],"variability":[66],"time-dependent":[69],"index":[70],"modeled":[72],"as":[73,127],"an":[74],"ARIMA":[75],"series.Likewise,":[77],"coefficients":[83],"also":[85,114],"quantified,":[86],"by":[88,133],"using":[89,134],"triangular":[90],"fuzzy":[91,103,135],"numbers.The":[92],"consideration":[93],"this":[95],"last":[96],"hypothesis":[97],"requires":[98],"developing":[99],"and":[100],"solving":[101],"regression":[104],"model.Once":[105],"has":[109],"been":[110],"introduced,":[111],"shown":[115,140],"how":[116],"obtain":[118],"some":[119],"variables":[120],"linked":[121],"with":[122,146,164],"such":[126],"death":[128],"probabilities":[129],"or":[130],"life":[131],"expectancies":[132],"numbers":[136],"arithmetic.It":[137],"simultaneously":[139],"applicability":[142],"our":[144,162],"developments":[145],"data":[147],"Spanish":[149],"male":[150],"population":[151],"period":[154],"1970-2012.Finally":[155],"we":[156],"make":[157],"comparative":[159],"assessment":[160],"method":[163],"alternative":[165],"estimates":[168],"on":[169],"16":[170],"Western":[171],"Europe":[172],"populations.":[173]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":3}],"updated_date":"2026-10-30T12:39:25.321706","created_date":"2019-07-30T00:00:00"}