{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2921275503","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.12.007","title":"Are forecasting competitions data representative of the reality?","display_name":"Are forecasting competitions data representative of the reality?","publication_year":2019,"publication_date":"2019-03-09","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2921275503","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.12.007","mag":"2921275503"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.12.007","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.12.007","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.12.007","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S39841227","display_name":"International Journal of Forecasting","issn_l":"0169-2070","issn":["0169-2070","1872-8200"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","fnege-3","jufo-2","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Forecasting","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5015832946","display_name":"Evangelos Spiliotis","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1854-1206","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1854-1206"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I174458059","display_name":"National Technical University of Athens","ror":"https://ror.org/03cx6bg69","country_code":"GR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I174458059"]}],"countries":["GR"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Evangelos Spiliotis","raw_affiliation_strings":["Forecasting and Strategy Unit, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Forecasting and Strategy Unit, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I174458059"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5034483819","display_name":"Andreas Kouloumos","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I174458059","display_name":"National Technical University of Athens","ror":"https://ror.org/03cx6bg69","country_code":"GR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I174458059"]}],"countries":["GR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Andreas Kouloumos","raw_affiliation_strings":["Forecasting and Strategy Unit, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Forecasting and Strategy Unit, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I174458059"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5112615779","display_name":"Vassilios Assimakopoulos","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I174458059","display_name":"National Technical University of Athens","ror":"https://ror.org/03cx6bg69","country_code":"GR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I174458059"]}],"countries":["GR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Vassilios Assimakopoulos","raw_affiliation_strings":["Forecasting and Strategy Unit, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Forecasting and Strategy Unit, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I174458059"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5022353147","display_name":"Spyros Makridakis","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2519-8095","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2519-8095","https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0044-6996"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I17389662","display_name":"University of Nicosia","ror":"https://ror.org/04v18t651","country_code":"CY","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I17389662"]}],"countries":["CY"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Spyros Makridakis","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute For the Future (IFF), University of Nicosia, Nicosia, Cyprus, Cyprus"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute For the Future (IFF), University of Nicosia, Nicosia, Cyprus, Cyprus","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I17389662"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5015832946"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I174458059"],"apc_list":{"value":1200,"currency":"USD","value_usd":1200},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":7.9811,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":72,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.9784438,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"36","issue":"1","first_page":"37","last_page":"53"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9984999895095825,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9984999895095825,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12205","display_name":"Time Series Analysis and Forecasting","score":0.0006000000284984708,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1711","display_name":"Signal Processing"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11344","display_name":"Traffic Prediction and Management Techniques","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3313","display_name":"Transportation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecasting-competitions","display_name":"forecasting competitions","score":0.9610000252723694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/benchmark-dataset","display_name":"benchmark dataset","score":0.7459999918937683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-representativeness","display_name":"data representativeness","score":0.8029999732971191},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/m4-competition","display_name":"M4 competition","score":0.7900000214576721},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-series-forecasting","display_name":"time series forecasting","score":0.7300000190734863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/overfitting","display_name":"overfitting","score":0.8339999914169312},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-evaluation","display_name":"forecast evaluation","score":0.5529999732971191}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.6776473522186279},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C198531522","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q485146","display_name":"Sample (material)","level":2,"score":0.5226216912269592},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C182306322","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1779371","display_name":"Order (exchange)","level":2,"score":0.4931580424308777},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C161657586","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1203326","display_name":"Technology forecasting","level":2,"score":0.4549533724784851},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2522767166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2374463","display_name":"Data science","level":1,"score":0.4413687288761139},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4080546796321869},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.36352378129959106},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.3488645553588867},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.13880741596221924},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10138342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43015","display_name":"Finance","level":1,"score":0.10195261240005493},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185592680","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2329","display_name":"Chemistry","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43617362","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q170050","display_name":"Chromatography","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.12.007","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.12.007","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.12.007","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S39841227","display_name":"International Journal of Forecasting","issn_l":"0169-2070","issn":["0169-2070","1872-8200"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","fnege-3","jufo-2","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Forecasting","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:eee:intfor:v:36:y:2020:i:1:p:37-53","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207019300159","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":28,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W140867740","https://openalex.org/W285471286","https://openalex.org/W1977698057","https://openalex.org/W1989280111","https://openalex.org/W2016210396","https://openalex.org/W2034203008","https://openalex.org/W2048665112","https://openalex.org/W2055311466","https://openalex.org/W2077832579","https://openalex.org/W2084175761","https://openalex.org/W2099111195","https://openalex.org/W2116512828","https://openalex.org/W2134070777","https://openalex.org/W2146525523","https://openalex.org/W2154326182","https://openalex.org/W2159651898","https://openalex.org/W2162174678","https://openalex.org/W2278984902","https://openalex.org/W2323575786","https://openalex.org/W2581984534","https://openalex.org/W2787034450","https://openalex.org/W2808423874","https://openalex.org/W2808800115","https://openalex.org/W2914795973","https://openalex.org/W3122820950","https://openalex.org/W4239851718","https://openalex.org/W6789047656","https://openalex.org/W7037517506"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2913950220","https://openalex.org/W3130908943","https://openalex.org/W1834195677","https://openalex.org/W3133496453","https://openalex.org/W2963507686","https://openalex.org/W4385067302","https://openalex.org/W2947917763","https://openalex.org/W3018448094","https://openalex.org/W3163195392","https://openalex.org/W2104065866"],"abstract_inverted_index":null,"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":16},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":16},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-10T11:39:43.021295","created_date":"2019-03-22T00:00:00"}
