{"id":"https://openalex.org/W290308453","doi":null,"title":"Characterizing and responding to uncertainty in climate change","display_name":"Characterizing and responding to uncertainty in climate change","publication_year":2011,"publication_date":"2011-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W290308453","mag":"290308453"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:escholarship.org/ark:/13030/qt5t82v5j3","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5t82v5j3","pdf_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5t82v5j3","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400115","display_name":"eScholarship (California Digital Library)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2801248553","host_organization_name":"California Digital Library","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2801248553"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"etd"},"volume":null,"type":"dissertation","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5t82v5j3","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5026004721","display_name":"Derek M Lemoine","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1298-9472","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1298-9472"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Derek Lemoine","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1298-9472","affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5026004721"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10471","display_name":"Climate Change Policy and Economics","score":0.9818999767303467,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10471","display_name":"Climate Change Policy and Economics","score":0.9818999767303467,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.008200000040233135,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12615","display_name":"Climate Change and Geoengineering","score":0.008200000040233135,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/deep-uncertainty","display_name":"deep uncertainty","score":0.671999990940094},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-change","display_name":"climate change","score":0.46000000834465027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/structural-uncertainty","display_name":"structural uncertainty","score":0.6819999814033508},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-hierarchical-model","display_name":"Bayesian hierarchical model","score":0.7400000095367432},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-model-bias","display_name":"climate model bias","score":0.7129999995231628},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-carbon-feedback","display_name":"carbon-climate feedback","score":0.7900000214576721},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/carbon-cycle-feedbacks","display_name":"carbon cycle feedbacks","score":0.5740000009536743},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ice-core-records","display_name":"ice core records","score":0.6340000033378601},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/orbital-forcing","display_name":"orbital forcing","score":0.7900000214576721},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/temperature-projections","display_name":"temperature projections","score":0.4880000054836273},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/integrated-assessment-models","display_name":"integrated assessment models","score":0.7509999871253967},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-policy","display_name":"climate policy","score":0.3610000014305115},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cost-effectiveness-analysis","display_name":"cost-effectiveness analysis","score":0.6869999766349792},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-targets","display_name":"climate targets","score":0.48899999260902405},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-change-adaptation","display_name":"climate change adaptation","score":0.30799999833106995},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-change-mitigation","display_name":"climate change mitigation","score":0.3479999899864197}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132651083","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Climate change","level":2,"score":0.5705832242965698},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.43481093645095825},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.42341938614845276},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.2593846321105957},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111368507","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43518","display_name":"Oceanography","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:escholarship.org/ark:/13030/qt5t82v5j3","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5t82v5j3","pdf_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5t82v5j3","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400115","display_name":"eScholarship (California Digital Library)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2801248553","host_organization_name":"California Digital Library","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2801248553"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"etd"},{"id":"pmh:qt5t82v5j3","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/5t82v5j3","pdf_url":"http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/5t82v5j3","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400115","display_name":"eScholarship (California Digital Library)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2801248553","host_organization_name":"California Digital Library","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2801248553"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Lemoine, Derek Mark. (2011). Characterizing and responding to uncertainty in climate change. UC Berkeley: Energy & Resources. Retrieved from: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/5t82v5j3","raw_type":"dissertation"},{"id":"mag:290308453","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://escholarship.org/content/qt5t82v5j3/qt5t82v5j3.pdf?t=mtfeb1","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:escholarship.org/ark:/13030/qt5t82v5j3","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5t82v5j3","pdf_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5t82v5j3","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400115","display_name":"eScholarship (California Digital Library)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2801248553","host_organization_name":"California Digital Library","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2801248553"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"etd"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","display_name":"Climate action","score":1.0}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W290308453.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W290308453.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":245,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W36231096","https://openalex.org/W624280243","https://openalex.org/W1480805479","https://openalex.org/W1489363972","https://openalex.org/W1492231659","https://openalex.org/W1494206883","https://openalex.org/W1494967802","https://openalex.org/W1509521877","https://openalex.org/W1511169134","https://openalex.org/W1515015187","https://openalex.org/W1517555081","https://openalex.org/W1520617547","https://openalex.org/W1521419879","https://openalex.org/W1523963696","https://openalex.org/W1525260320","https://openalex.org/W1536497620","https://openalex.org/W1539293059","https://openalex.org/W1539903848","https://openalex.org/W1543020208","https://openalex.org/W1554944419","https://openalex.org/W1554964666","https://openalex.org/W1560889174","https://openalex.org/W1574786337","https://openalex.org/W1575579655","https://openalex.org/W1575877640","https://openalex.org/W1576403083","https://openalex.org/W1611139875","https://openalex.org/W1625595678","https://openalex.org/W1647779468","https://openalex.org/W1909570941","https://openalex.org/W1928911379","https://openalex.org/W1954525867","https://openalex.org/W1956280464","https://openalex.org/W1965122835","https://openalex.org/W1965331528","https://openalex.org/W1965358009","https://openalex.org/W1966715855","https://openalex.org/W1968492927","https://openalex.org/W1970025654","https://openalex.org/W1973499458","https://openalex.org/W1974002112","https://openalex.org/W1974436718","https://openalex.org/W1974576620","https://openalex.org/W1976249411","https://openalex.org/W1977244495","https://openalex.org/W1977564923","https://openalex.org/W1982928030","https://openalex.org/W1983054370","https://openalex.org/W1983447513","https://openalex.org/W1983629233","https://openalex.org/W1985148570","https://openalex.org/W1986486096","https://openalex.org/W1988136585","https://openalex.org/W1988679446","https://openalex.org/W1989401502","https://openalex.org/W1990531619","https://openalex.org/W1992866464","https://openalex.org/W1994002679","https://openalex.org/W1995422101","https://openalex.org/W1999191006","https://openalex.org/W2000444336","https://openalex.org/W2002021354","https://openalex.org/W2004053254","https://openalex.org/W2005476669","https://openalex.org/W2007351213","https://openalex.org/W2009209293","https://openalex.org/W2009361522","https://openalex.org/W2010154749","https://openalex.org/W2014203700","https://openalex.org/W2014568275","https://openalex.org/W2014875461","https://openalex.org/W2015824296","https://openalex.org/W2017600810","https://openalex.org/W2017974358","https://openalex.org/W2019265923","https://openalex.org/W2019291268","https://openalex.org/W2020319624","https://openalex.org/W2021116626","https://openalex.org/W2022063173","https://openalex.org/W2022460968","https://openalex.org/W2022545034","https://openalex.org/W2025669240","https://openalex.org/W2026470384","https://openalex.org/W2026548894","https://openalex.org/W2026974265","https://openalex.org/W2027464004","https://openalex.org/W2033609653","https://openalex.org/W2034303133","https://openalex.org/W2034448048","https://openalex.org/W2035221792","https://openalex.org/W2040480499","https://openalex.org/W2045852818","https://openalex.org/W2046066349","https://openalex.org/W2046131812","https://openalex.org/W2046942789","https://openalex.org/W2047811420","https://openalex.org/W2048849454","https://openalex.org/W2049766574","https://openalex.org/W2051294624","https://openalex.org/W2051509295","https://openalex.org/W2052115269","https://openalex.org/W2054991540","https://openalex.org/W2055162178","https://openalex.org/W2055323479","https://openalex.org/W2055442076","https://openalex.org/W2056334354","https://openalex.org/W2057316453","https://openalex.org/W2058138597","https://openalex.org/W2058670254","https://openalex.org/W2060590177","https://openalex.org/W2060852319","https://openalex.org/W2061575436","https://openalex.org/W2062341688","https://openalex.org/W2062778690","https://openalex.org/W2064326162","https://openalex.org/W2067969835","https://openalex.org/W2068558806","https://openalex.org/W2070360074","https://openalex.org/W2070510804","https://openalex.org/W2071756666","https://openalex.org/W2072234220","https://openalex.org/W2072634742","https://openalex.org/W2073141004","https://openalex.org/W2074394766","https://openalex.org/W2076517688","https://openalex.org/W2079871681","https://openalex.org/W2080125108","https://openalex.org/W2080539324","https://openalex.org/W2080856223","https://openalex.org/W2080923082","https://openalex.org/W2081381309","https://openalex.org/W2082676781","https://openalex.org/W2083131814","https://openalex.org/W2085772619","https://openalex.org/W2091895973","https://openalex.org/W2095586509","https://openalex.org/W2095711508","https://openalex.org/W2096004786","https://openalex.org/W2096885696","https://openalex.org/W2097259059","https://openalex.org/W2097534688","https://openalex.org/W2098442460","https://openalex.org/W2098524090","https://openalex.org/W2099528112","https://openalex.org/W2099615386","https://openalex.org/W2100083267","https://openalex.org/W2100956194","https://openalex.org/W2104099738","https://openalex.org/W2105373820","https://openalex.org/W2106380636","https://openalex.org/W2106383383","https://openalex.org/W2107205575","https://openalex.org/W2107445592","https://openalex.org/W2107596579","https://openalex.org/W2111029009","https://openalex.org/W2111335668","https://openalex.org/W2112424409","https://openalex.org/W2112784063","https://openalex.org/W2112933898","https://openalex.org/W2113186942","https://openalex.org/W2113704261","https://openalex.org/W2115399919","https://openalex.org/W2115778425","https://openalex.org/W2116983530","https://openalex.org/W2117827469","https://openalex.org/W2118325498","https://openalex.org/W2118577495","https://openalex.org/W2119083643","https://openalex.org/W2120002039","https://openalex.org/W2120665403","https://openalex.org/W2121101968","https://openalex.org/W2121178427","https://openalex.org/W2121541206","https://openalex.org/W2121877796","https://openalex.org/W2123186171","https://openalex.org/W2123553882","https://openalex.org/W2124669512","https://openalex.org/W2125055203","https://openalex.org/W2125932194","https://openalex.org/W2129992710","https://openalex.org/W2129999750","https://openalex.org/W2130235859","https://openalex.org/W2132228161","https://openalex.org/W2133448536","https://openalex.org/W2133631519","https://openalex.org/W2134074466","https://openalex.org/W2135944841","https://openalex.org/W2136010209","https://openalex.org/W2136238670","https://openalex.org/W2139341044","https://openalex.org/W2139606141","https://openalex.org/W2139716307","https://openalex.org/W2143322314","https://openalex.org/W2144603483","https://openalex.org/W2144846366","https://openalex.org/W2145464878","https://openalex.org/W2145796050","https://openalex.org/W2149521176","https://openalex.org/W2149923233","https://openalex.org/W2150186950","https://openalex.org/W2150213112","https://openalex.org/W2150225301","https://openalex.org/W2150303148","https://openalex.org/W2151218709","https://openalex.org/W2151746416","https://openalex.org/W2152118727","https://openalex.org/W2154682798","https://openalex.org/W2155394483","https://openalex.org/W2155472886","https://openalex.org/W2155618577","https://openalex.org/W2156102187","https://openalex.org/W2156602814","https://openalex.org/W2157121532","https://openalex.org/W2157961197","https://openalex.org/W2158055783","https://openalex.org/W2158149113","https://openalex.org/W2159200641","https://openalex.org/W2159450977","https://openalex.org/W2160252043","https://openalex.org/W2161480748","https://openalex.org/W2163065403","https://openalex.org/W2163933009","https://openalex.org/W2164086087","https://openalex.org/W2166941621","https://openalex.org/W2167107052","https://openalex.org/W2167917981","https://openalex.org/W2168331993","https://openalex.org/W2169757755","https://openalex.org/W2169954448","https://openalex.org/W2170978249","https://openalex.org/W2171357716","https://openalex.org/W2413969717","https://openalex.org/W2890188665","https://openalex.org/W2952904918","https://openalex.org/W3099754316","https://openalex.org/W3121225247","https://openalex.org/W3121386624","https://openalex.org/W3122582497","https://openalex.org/W3122592429","https://openalex.org/W3123629920","https://openalex.org/W3123661715","https://openalex.org/W3123682933","https://openalex.org/W3124028004","https://openalex.org/W3124274640","https://openalex.org/W3125667316"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W6987287285","https://openalex.org/W1976851536","https://openalex.org/W7096060889","https://openalex.org/W3125818616","https://openalex.org/W4220969077","https://openalex.org/W4286214868","https://openalex.org/W2805811862","https://openalex.org/W2186601538","https://openalex.org/W1885374841","https://openalex.org/W3121392029"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,165,189,440,585,631,688,933,990],"development":[1,63,828],"and":[2,14,30,61,84,110,114,123,267,277,426,475,483,563,657,701,827,830,856,868,880,884,924,965,1056,1091,1159,1193,1215,1256,1282],"analysis":[3],"of":[4,12,36,47,55,64,81,129,145,186,245,323,345,442,455,473,476,514,533,542,547,571,587,597,611,743,756,796,824,847,860,935,948,969,992,1045,1063,1082,1115,1127,1144,1152,1163,1233,1238,1253,1258,1286],"climate":[5,51,72,98,105,410,460,501,523,613,841,1026,1038,1064,1190,1212,1254],"policy":[6,65,433,822,905,1259],"proposals":[7],"intertwine":[8],"with":[9,126,420,431,575,897,1071,1263],"the":[10,15,23,31,45,50,53,62,143,158,199,207,243,264,334,343,395,453,459,465,470,477,486,510,539,545,552,567,594,601,604,617,639,662,697,702,728,741,744,750,754,757,769,787,790,794,802,807,812,890,915,946,952,967,977,1023,1030,1043,1061,1069,1079,1110,1142,1150,1161,1177,1205,1231],"structure":[11,155,467],"knowledge":[13,48,1252,1285],"possibility":[16,190,454,478,586],"for":[17,135,210,359,479,593,930,962,1099,1113,1280],"changing":[18,401],"it.":[19],"Key":[20],"questions":[21],"concern":[22],"long-term":[24,71,940],"interaction":[25],"between":[26],"policy,":[27],"technology,":[28,1054],"infrastructure,":[29],"earth":[32,268],"system,":[33,52],"but":[34,176,271,636,706,752,793,926,972,1005],"each":[35,858,912],"these":[37,443,612,707,1083,1157],"components":[38],"is":[39,231,363,496,590,600,690,715,815,956,1078,1245],"deeply":[40],"uncertain.":[41],"This":[42,315,1249],"dissertation":[43,1250],"advances":[44,1251],"description":[46],"about":[49,96,120,152,157,493,500,1037,1042,1053,1189,1211],"assessment":[54,416,449],"economic":[56,407],"responses":[57,408],"to":[58,69,78,85,107,111,132,163,201,218,234,318,341,365,370,384,398,400,409,451,468,489,554,558,670,699,704,733,746,777,785,800,837,862,865,869,906,979,1000,1015,1040,1059,1224,1230,1266],"climatic":[59,222],"possibilities,":[60],"that":[66,180,191,230,362,491,505,627,683,691,761,919,1068,1103,1155],"positions":[67],"society":[68,1229],"achieve":[70,838],"goals.":[73],"It":[74,355,462,503,759,843,872,917,1049,1066],"offers":[75],"new":[76],"paths":[77],"describing":[79,1281],"understanding":[80,1257],"complex":[82,1239,1288],"systems":[83,1240],"modeling":[86],"optimal":[87,618,655,659,681],"management":[88],"under":[89,1198],"structural":[90],"uncertainty.The":[91],"first":[92,441],"chapter":[93,225,316,818,1033],"formalizes":[94],"uncertainty":[95,474,492,499,1036,1041],"equilibrium":[97],"change.":[99,137],"Its":[100],"hierarchical":[101],"Bayes":[102],"framework":[103,1279],"allows":[104,857],"models":[106,139,147,175,192,616],"be":[108,555],"incomplete":[109],"share":[112,141],"biases,":[113,142],"it":[115,484,581,667,676,885],"shows":[116,760,1050],"how":[117,1051],"prior":[118,1187],"beliefs":[119,1052,1188],"models'":[121,127,153,203,305,367,1191,1213],"completeness":[122],"independence":[124,1192,1214],"interact":[125,1058],"estimates":[128,179,204,227,298,306,368],"feedback":[130,211,229,288,325,1171],"strength":[131,326],"determine":[133,945],"distributions":[134],"temperature":[136,246,346,380,494,1182,1225],"When":[138,951],"might":[140,148],"results":[144],"additional":[146],"tell":[149],"us":[150],"more":[151,517,528,591,1277],"common":[154,196],"than":[156,289,369,518,599,1109,1203],"real-world":[159],"processes":[160],"they":[161,252,391,521,537],"aim":[162],"represent.":[164],"most":[166,1080],"valuable":[167,923,998],"information":[168],"would":[169],"then":[170,255,579,739],"come":[171],"not":[172,256,393,723,748,797,882,928],"from":[173,177,1011,1185,1209],"related":[174],"alternate":[178],"should":[181,1274],"carry":[182],"a":[183,228,286,311,357,413,428,446,647,774,852,887,898,997,1180,1246,1276],"different":[184],"set":[185,638,666,675],"unobservable":[187],"biases.":[188],"are":[193,253,377,763,879,881,895,922],"wrong":[194],"in":[195,330,333,338,349,412,418,427,458,607,789,810,835,851,900,911,1029,1241,1261],"ways":[197],"limits":[198,215,806],"degree":[200],"which":[202,213,811,901,1072],"can":[205,508,623],"narrow":[206],"probability":[208],"distribution":[209,1183,1207],"strength,":[212],"also":[214,463,753,1007,1140],"our":[216],"ability":[217,742,1265],"rule":[219],"out":[220],"extreme":[221,1170],"outcomes.The":[223],"second":[224,610],"empirically":[226],"especially":[232],"difficult":[233],"model.":[235],"Climate-carbon":[236],"feedbacks":[237,361,376],"(or":[238],"carbon":[239,248,396,515,572,598],"cycle":[240,293,397],"feedbacks)":[241],"describe":[242],"effect":[244,266,344,535,1175],"on":[247,347,939,1018,1284],"dioxide":[249],"(CO2).":[250],"If":[251],"positive,":[254,379],"only":[257,749,1129],"does":[258,1204],"anthropogenic":[259],"CO2":[260,276,348,543,1047,1094,1122,1196],"cause":[261],"warming":[262,273,1128],"via":[263],"greenhouse":[265,549],"system":[269],"feedbacks,":[270],"this":[272,634,725],"itself":[274],"increases":[275,566,1226],"so":[278],"causes":[279],"further":[280],"warming.":[281,1116],"Previous":[282],"empirical":[283,297,372],"work":[284,1273],"estimated":[285,1112],"stronger":[287],"did":[290],"coupled":[291,304,366],"climate-carbon":[292,324,360,375],"models.":[294],"However,":[295],"those":[296,944],"were":[299,307],"probably":[300,378],"biased":[301],"upwards":[302],"while":[303,1227],"primarily":[308],"driven":[309],"by":[310,327,516,573,582,1107,1132],"few":[312],"ill-constrained":[313],"parameters.":[314],"attempts":[317],"obtain":[319,652,778],"an":[320,386,534,678,692,1242],"unbiased":[321],"estimate":[322],"using":[328],"variations":[329,337],"summer":[331],"radiation":[332],"Arctic":[335],"(i.e.,":[336],"orbital":[339],"forcing)":[340],"identify":[342],"800":[350],"ky":[351],"ice":[352],"core":[353],"records.":[354],"finds":[356,504,918,1067],"range":[358,1151],"closer":[364],"previous":[371,1003],"work.":[373],"Since":[374],"change":[381,411,495,850,1039,1255],"projections":[382],"tend":[383],"underestimate":[385],"emission":[387,619,649,693,832,877,941,954,959,982,985,994,1020],"path's":[388],"consequences":[389],"if":[390,973,1022,1125],"do":[392,722,927],"allow":[394],"respond":[399,863],"temperatures.The":[402],"next":[403,791,803,1178],"three":[404],"chapters":[405,444,615],"assess":[406],"policy-optimizing":[414],"integrated":[415,448],"model,":[417],"games":[419],"long-lived":[421],"investments":[422,784],"into":[423],"abatement":[424,629,870,964,1006,1145,1164],"capital,":[425],"cost-effectiveness":[429,1062],"model":[430,450,738,855],"multiple":[432],"options":[434,921],"stretching":[435],"over":[436,481,561,564,1176],"long":[437],"time":[438,562],"horizons.":[439],"extends":[445],"well-known":[447],"include":[452],"abrupt":[456],"shifts":[457],"system.":[461],"changes":[464,1269],"model's":[466],"make":[469,526],"decision-maker":[471,605],"aware":[472],"learning":[480],"time,":[482],"generalizes":[485],"welfare":[487],"evaluation":[488],"reflect":[490],"qualitatively":[497],"unlike":[498],"thresholds.":[502],"tipping":[506,576,588],"points":[507,589],"increase":[509,538,1074,1149],"near-term":[511,568,931,963],"social":[512,569,595],"cost":[513,570,596,795,1044,1146,1165],"50%":[519],"when":[520,536,621,713,780],"raise":[522],"sensitivity":[524,1223],"or":[525,544,673,1025,1134,1270],"damages":[527,1057,1073,1202],"convex.":[529],"They":[530],"have":[531,1173],"less":[532,988,1108,1200],"atmospheric":[540],"lifetime":[541],"quantity":[546],"non-CO2":[548],"gases.":[550],"Allowing":[551],"policymaker":[553],"differentially":[556],"averse":[557],"consumption":[559],"fluctuations":[560],"risk":[565],"150%,":[574],"point":[577],"possibilities":[578,903],"increasing":[580,1012],"another":[583],"50%.":[584],"important":[592,1081],"ambiguity":[602],"attitude":[603],"uses":[606],"evaluating":[608],"them.The":[609],"economics":[614],"tax":[620,640,650,694,776,788,805,814],"firms":[622,642,781],"adopt":[624],"low-pollution":[625],"technology":[626,833,861,1024,1235],"reduces":[628,1130],"cost.":[630],"regulator":[632,663,745,770],"anticipates":[633],"adoption":[635],"must":[637],"before":[641],"invest.":[643],"In":[644,717,1167],"many":[645],"cases,":[646],"linear":[648],"cannot":[651],"both":[653,696,864,1121],"socially":[654,658,766],"investment":[656,672,714,779],"emissions":[660,894,910],"because":[661,727,943,1169],"either":[664],"will":[665,674,771],"inefficiently":[668,685],"high":[669],"stimulate":[671],"at":[677,1075],"ex":[679],"post":[680],"level":[682,751],"obtains":[684],"low":[686],"investment.":[687,735],"difficulty":[689],"fixes":[695],"incentive":[698,703],"invest":[700],"abate,":[705],"two":[708,845],"goals":[709,942],"rarely":[710],"align":[711],"perfectly":[712],"lumpy.":[716],"contrast,":[718],"tradable":[719],"permits":[720],"policies":[721],"suffer":[724],"tension":[726],"permit":[729],"price":[730],"responds":[731],"automatically":[732],"realized":[734],"A":[736],"numerical":[737,854],"considers":[740],"select":[747],"duration":[755],"tax.":[758],"outcomes":[762,1172],"still":[764],"often":[765],"inefficient.":[767],"Further,":[768],"occasionally":[772],"use":[773],"longer":[775,813],"expect":[782],"their":[783],"lower":[786],"period,":[792],"being":[798],"able":[799],"adjust":[801],"period's":[804],"parameter":[808],"space":[809],"employed.The":[816],"fifth":[817],"constructs":[819],"cost-effective":[820],"dynamic":[821],"portfolios":[823],"abatement,":[825],"research":[826],"(R&D),":[829],"negative":[831,876,958,984,993,1019],"deployment":[834],"order":[836],"21st":[839],"century":[840],"targets.":[842,1048,1065],"includes":[844],"types":[846],"stochastic":[848],"technological":[849],"stylized":[853],"type":[859,934,968],"public":[866],"R&D":[867,920,936,970],"policies.":[871],"compares":[873,886],"worlds":[874],"where":[875,889],"technologies":[878,960,986,995,1021],"available,":[883],"world":[888,899,1244],"century's":[891],"cumulative":[892,908,953],"net":[893,909,1097],"constrained":[896],"threshold":[902,974],"lead":[904],"constrain":[907],"year":[913],"during":[914],"century.":[916],"exercised":[925],"substitute":[929,961],"abatement.":[932,950],"undertaken":[937],"depends":[938],"magnitude":[947],"future":[949,1013,1268],"constraint":[955],"stringent,":[957],"affect":[966,1060],"undertaken,":[971],"considerations":[975],"eliminate":[976],"freedom":[978],"temporarily":[980],"overshoot":[981],"targets,":[983],"become":[987],"valuable.":[989],"availability":[991],"provides":[996],"option":[999,1009],"partially":[1001],"undo":[1002],"emissions,":[1004],"gains":[1008],"value":[1010],"flexibility":[1014],"forgo":[1016],"reliance":[1017],"prove":[1027],"problematic":[1028],"interim.The":[1031],"concluding":[1032],"directly":[1034],"connects":[1035],"achieving":[1046],"temperature,":[1055],"speed":[1070],"higher":[1076],"temperatures":[1077],"factors.":[1084],"Both":[1085],"450":[1086],"parts":[1087],"per":[1088],"million":[1089],"(ppm)":[1090],"550":[1092],"ppm":[1093],"targets":[1095,1123,1158,1197],"provide":[1096],"benefits":[1098],"quadratic":[1100],"damage":[1101,1118,1138,1153],"functions":[1102,1119,1139,1154],"reduce":[1104,1141],"annual":[1105],"output":[1106,1131],"1-2%":[1111],"2.5\u00b0C":[1114,1126],"Cubic":[1117],"support":[1120,1156],"even":[1124],"0.2%":[1133],"less.":[1135],"More":[1136],"convex":[1137],"importance":[1143,1162],"uncertainty.":[1147,1166],"significantly":[1148],"decrease":[1160],"addition,":[1168],"little":[1174],"decades,":[1179],"thinner-tailed":[1181],"(resulting":[1184,1208],"optimistic":[1186],"biases)":[1194],"supports":[1195],"slightly":[1199],"severe":[1201],"thicker-tailed":[1206],"skepticism":[1210],"biases).":[1216],"Emission":[1217],"reductions":[1218],"hedge":[1219],"against":[1220],"greater":[1221],"societal":[1222],"exposing":[1228],"upside":[1232],"positive":[1234],"surprises.The":[1236],"epistemology":[1237],"out-of-sample":[1243],"key":[1247],"motif.":[1248],"design":[1260],"settings":[1262],"limited":[1264],"predict":[1267],"responses.":[1271],"Further":[1272],"seek":[1275],"unified":[1278],"acting":[1283],"evolving":[1287],"systems.":[1289]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}