{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2891908114","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.3.3.192","title":"Interest Rate Risk and Other Determinants of Post-WWII US Government Debt/GDP Dynamics","display_name":"Interest Rate Risk and Other Determinants of Post-WWII US Government Debt/GDP Dynamics","publication_year":2011,"publication_date":"2011-07-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2891908114","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.3.3.192","mag":"2891908114"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1257/mac.3.3.192","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.3.3.192","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.3.3.192","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S170166683","display_name":"American Economic Journal Macroeconomics","issn_l":"1945-7707","issn":["1945-7707","1945-7715"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a-star","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","jufo-3","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315912","host_organization_name":"American Economic Association","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315912"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["American Economic Association"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5019144442","display_name":"George Hall","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5079-7714","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5079-7714"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I6902469","display_name":"Brandeis University","ror":"https://ror.org/05abbep66","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I6902469"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"George J Hall","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Economics, Brandeis University, 415 South Street, Waltham, MA 02454-9110"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Economics, Brandeis University, 415 South Street, Waltham, MA 02454-9110","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I6902469"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5002088217","display_name":"Thomas J. Sargent","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5457-0944","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5457-0944"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I57206974","display_name":"New York University","ror":"https://ror.org/0190ak572","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I57206974"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I6902469","display_name":"Brandeis University","ror":"https://ror.org/05abbep66","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I6902469"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Thomas J Sargent","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Economics, New York University, 19 W. Fourth Street, New York, NY 10012-1119","Department of Economics, Brandeis University, 415 South Street, Waltham, MA 02454-9110;","Brandeis University","New York University"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Economics, New York University, 19 W. Fourth Street, New York, NY 10012-1119","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I57206974"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Economics, Brandeis University, 415 South Street, Waltham, MA 02454-9110;","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I6902469"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Brandeis University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I6902469"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"New York University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I57206974"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":17.8658,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":105,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.98936924,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":93,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"3","issue":"3","first_page":"192","last_page":"214"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11621","display_name":"Fiscal Policies and Political Economy","score":0.9595000147819519,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11621","display_name":"Fiscal Policies and Political Economy","score":0.9595000147819519,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.017000000923871994,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13042","display_name":"Economic and Fiscal Studies","score":0.00839999970048666,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/public-debt","display_name":"public debt","score":0.8389999866485596},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/debt-to-gdp-ratio","display_name":"debt-to-GDP ratio","score":0.859000027179718},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/interest-rate-risk","display_name":"interest rate risk","score":0.8450000286102295},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/government-budget-constraint","display_name":"government budget constraint","score":0.8690000176429749},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/inflation","display_name":"inflation","score":0.6259999871253967},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economic-growth","display_name":"economic growth","score":0.9350000023841858},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/nominal-returns","display_name":"nominal returns","score":0.6330000162124634},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/debt-maturity","display_name":"debt maturity","score":0.8149999976158142},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/postwar-america","display_name":"postwar United States","score":0.8159999847412109}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778489760","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12695","display_name":"Government debt","level":3,"score":0.750409722328186},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.7432067394256592},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C120527767","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3196867","display_name":"Debt","level":2,"score":0.690373420715332},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C200941418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q273508","display_name":"Inflation (cosmology)","level":2,"score":0.6611310839653015},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C556758197","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q580018","display_name":"Monetary economics","level":1,"score":0.6316848397254944},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778137410","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2732820","display_name":"Government (linguistics)","level":2,"score":0.6095820665359497},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175025494","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q179179","display_name":"Interest rate","level":2,"score":0.6033408641815186},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C145097563","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1148747","display_name":"Payment","level":2,"score":0.5090658068656921},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154815372","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1140421","display_name":"Real interest rate","level":3,"score":0.466718852519989},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781356325","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1929688","display_name":"Government spending","level":3,"score":0.4586946368217468},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C84888623","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1205832","display_name":"Nominal interest rate","level":4,"score":0.439853310585022},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139719470","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39680","display_name":"Macroeconomics","level":1,"score":0.3890051245689392},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10138342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43015","display_name":"Finance","level":1,"score":0.17399731278419495},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33332235","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q18362","display_name":"Theoretical physics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41895202","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8162","display_name":"Linguistics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C100243477","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12002092","display_name":"Welfare","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C34447519","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q179522","display_name":"Market economy","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1257/mac.3.3.192","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.3.3.192","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.3.3.192","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S170166683","display_name":"American Economic Journal Macroeconomics","issn_l":"1945-7707","issn":["1945-7707","1945-7715"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a-star","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","jufo-3","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315912","host_organization_name":"American Economic Association","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315912"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["American Economic Association"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:3:y:2011:i:3:p:192-214","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/mac.3.3.192","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/8","display_name":"Decent work and economic growth","score":0.7200000286102295}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":32,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1498145954","https://openalex.org/W1513774310","https://openalex.org/W1596632201","https://openalex.org/W1603906603","https://openalex.org/W1604993889","https://openalex.org/W1987525510","https://openalex.org/W1998405613","https://openalex.org/W2006610992","https://openalex.org/W2011732067","https://openalex.org/W2022220601","https://openalex.org/W2035324278","https://openalex.org/W2070711684","https://openalex.org/W2075762815","https://openalex.org/W2077268433","https://openalex.org/W2088133319","https://openalex.org/W2100307741","https://openalex.org/W2105886573","https://openalex.org/W2120426658","https://openalex.org/W2148806103","https://openalex.org/W2150751859","https://openalex.org/W2158862865","https://openalex.org/W2290595658","https://openalex.org/W2325590795","https://openalex.org/W2485025475","https://openalex.org/W2797816625","https://openalex.org/W2889900622","https://openalex.org/W2891908114","https://openalex.org/W2991686893","https://openalex.org/W3122014905","https://openalex.org/W3124999726","https://openalex.org/W3140844493","https://openalex.org/W4298863114"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3121370346","https://openalex.org/W7095615930","https://openalex.org/W7024721615","https://openalex.org/W4412439117","https://openalex.org/W1577476007","https://openalex.org/W3123246000","https://openalex.org/W7096760085","https://openalex.org/W2943085414","https://openalex.org/W1991132098","https://openalex.org/W7124686304"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0],"paper":[1],"uses":[2],"a":[3],"sequence":[4],"of":[5,12,46,60],"government":[6,18],"budget":[7],"constraints":[8],"to":[9,39,43],"motivate":[10],"estimates":[11,21,38],"returns":[13,56],"on":[14,58],"the":[15,27,32,44,47],"US":[16,33],"Federal":[17],"debt.":[19],"Our":[20],"differ":[22],"conceptually":[23],"and":[24,54],"quantitatively":[25],"from":[26],"interest":[28],"payments":[29],"reported":[30],"by":[31,51],"government.":[34],"We":[35],"use":[36],"our":[37],"account":[40],"for":[41],"contributions":[42],"evolution":[45],"debt-GDP":[48],"ratio":[49],"made":[50],"inflation,":[52],"growth,":[53],"nominal":[55],"paid":[57],"debts":[59],"different":[61],"maturities.":[62],"(JEL":[63],"E23,":[64],"E31,":[65],"E43,":[66],"G12,":[67],"H63)":[68]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":10},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":12},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":13},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":7}],"updated_date":"2026-10-16T09:59:22.235173","created_date":"2018-09-27T00:00:00"}