{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2810073813","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/en11071678","title":"Improving Short-Term Heat Load Forecasts with Calendar and Holiday Data","display_name":"Improving Short-Term Heat Load Forecasts with Calendar and Holiday Data","publication_year":2018,"publication_date":"2018-06-27","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2810073813","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/en11071678","mag":"2810073813"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/en11071678","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/en11071678","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en11071678","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/7/1678/pdf?version=1530098589","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S198098182","display_name":"Energies","issn_l":"1996-1073","issn":["1996-1073"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","norway-1","poland-140","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Energies","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/7/1678/pdf?version=1530098589","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5080975530","display_name":"Magnus Dahl","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6450-4214","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6450-4214"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I204337017","display_name":"Aarhus University","ror":"https://ror.org/01aj84f44","country_code":"DK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I204337017"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2800392737","display_name":"Aarhus Municipality","ror":"https://ror.org/02wwbem66","country_code":"DK","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2800392737"]}],"countries":["DK"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Magnus Dahl","raw_affiliation_strings":["AffaldVarme Aarhus, Municipality of Aarhus, Bautavej 1, 8210 Aarhus, Denmark","Department of Engineering, Aarhus University, Inge Lehmanns Gade 10, 8000 Aarhus, Denmark"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6450-4214","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"AffaldVarme Aarhus, Municipality of Aarhus, Bautavej 1, 8210 Aarhus, Denmark","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2800392737"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Engineering, Aarhus University, Inge Lehmanns Gade 10, 8000 Aarhus, Denmark","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I204337017"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5023750411","display_name":"Adam Brun","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2800392737","display_name":"Aarhus Municipality","ror":"https://ror.org/02wwbem66","country_code":"DK","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2800392737"]}],"countries":["DK"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Adam Brun","raw_affiliation_strings":["AffaldVarme Aarhus, Municipality of Aarhus, Bautavej 1, 8210 Aarhus, Denmark"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"AffaldVarme Aarhus, Municipality of Aarhus, Bautavej 1, 8210 Aarhus, Denmark","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2800392737"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5030091304","display_name":"O. S. Kirsebom","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5843-7465","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5843-7465"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I204337017","display_name":"Aarhus University","ror":"https://ror.org/01aj84f44","country_code":"DK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I204337017"]}],"countries":["DK"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Oliver S. Kirsebom","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Physics and Astronomy, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 120, 8000 Aarhus, Denmark"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5843-7465","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Physics and Astronomy, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 120, 8000 Aarhus, Denmark","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I204337017"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5031257512","display_name":"Gorm Bruun Andresen","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4820-020X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4820-020X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I204337017","display_name":"Aarhus University","ror":"https://ror.org/01aj84f44","country_code":"DK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I204337017"]}],"countries":["DK"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Gorm B. Andresen","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Engineering, Aarhus University, Inge Lehmanns Gade 10, 8000 Aarhus, Denmark"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4820-020X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Engineering, Aarhus University, Inge Lehmanns Gade 10, 8000 Aarhus, Denmark","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I204337017"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5080975530"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I204337017","https://openalex.org/I2800392737"],"apc_list":{"value":2600,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":3137},"apc_paid":{"value":2600,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":3137},"fwci":3.8213,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":82,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.94250481,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":97,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"11","issue":"7","first_page":"1678","last_page":"1678"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11185","display_name":"Integrated Energy Systems Optimization","score":0.614300012588501,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11185","display_name":"Integrated Energy Systems Optimization","score":0.614300012588501,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.323199987411499,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10121","display_name":"Building Energy and Comfort Optimization","score":0.05909999832510948,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2215","display_name":"Building and Construction"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/heat-load-forecasting","display_name":"heat load forecasting","score":0.828000009059906},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/district-heating","display_name":"district heating","score":0.9120000004768372},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/school-holidays","display_name":"school holidays","score":0.7509999871253967},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/calendar-data","display_name":"calendar data","score":0.8289999961853027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/top-down-forecasting","display_name":"top-down forecasting","score":0.6620000004768372},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/support-vector-regression","display_name":"support vector regression","score":0.9229999780654907},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/weather-forecasting","display_name":"weather forecasting","score":0.6759999990463257}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C61797465","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1188986","display_name":"Term (time)","level":2,"score":0.5616598129272461},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.48474857211112976},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.44838830828666687},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21001229","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q182868","display_name":"Weather forecasting","level":2,"score":0.43474486470222473},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.42723965644836426},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777129202","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q190107","display_name":"Weather station","level":2,"score":0.4220830798149109},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.3584820032119751},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.20739448070526123},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.18501830101013184},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.3390/en11071678","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/en11071678","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en11071678","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/7/1678/pdf?version=1530098589","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S198098182","display_name":"Energies","issn_l":"1996-1073","issn":["1996-1073"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","norway-1","poland-140","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Energies","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pure.atira.dk:openaire/553f7621-8edb-4f02-9837-941adf3def6a","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://pure.au.dk/portal/en/publications/553f7621-8edb-4f02-9837-941adf3def6a","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Dahl, M, Brun, A, Kirsebom, O S & Andresen, G B 2018, 'Improving Short-Term Heat Load Forecasts with Calendar and Holiday Data', Energies, vol. 11, no. 7, 1678. https://doi.org/10.3390/en11071678","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:7:p:1678-:d:154830","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/7/1678/","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:9571f5a0e71d4516bbe30872e00a76e9","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/9571f5a0e71d4516bbe30872e00a76e9","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Energies, Vol 11, Iss 7, p 1678 (2018)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/en11071678","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/en11071678","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en11071678","pdf_url":"https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/7/1678/pdf?version=1530098589","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S198098182","display_name":"Energies","issn_l":"1996-1073","issn":["1996-1073"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","norway-1","poland-140","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Energies","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Climate action","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","score":0.4399999976158142}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4933739295","display_name":"READY","funder_award_id":"609127","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320300","funder_display_name":"European Commission"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G7849580720","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"ENER/FP7/609127/READY","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320338372","funder_display_name":"FP7 Energy"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320300","display_name":"European Commission","ror":"https://ror.org/00k4n6c32"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320338372","display_name":"FP7 Energy","ror":null}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2810073813.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2810073813.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":20,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1974038018","https://openalex.org/W1982366717","https://openalex.org/W2000093387","https://openalex.org/W2021465057","https://openalex.org/W2046669664","https://openalex.org/W2064675550","https://openalex.org/W2086384343","https://openalex.org/W2101234009","https://openalex.org/W2123068943","https://openalex.org/W2128120029","https://openalex.org/W2133644196","https://openalex.org/W2137226992","https://openalex.org/W2151593681","https://openalex.org/W2175287745","https://openalex.org/W2487967714","https://openalex.org/W2594787851","https://openalex.org/W2619904606","https://openalex.org/W2735809674","https://openalex.org/W2756612914","https://openalex.org/W2997591727"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7168134285","https://openalex.org/W2998228755","https://openalex.org/W4386464678","https://openalex.org/W4367847672","https://openalex.org/W2369211952","https://openalex.org/W4318153774","https://openalex.org/W2529742705","https://openalex.org/W4210951216","https://openalex.org/W3121101777","https://openalex.org/W4378174417"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,68,152],"heat":[1,31,57,78,120],"load":[2,32,58,79,121],"in":[3],"district":[4,62],"heating":[5,63],"systems":[6],"is":[7,88,156],"affected":[8],"by":[9,13,190],"the":[10,55,60,91,95,99,108,116,119,141,178,184],"weather":[11,105],"and":[12,16,37,81,139,166],"human":[14],"behavior,":[15],"special":[17],"consumption":[18],"patterns":[19],"are":[20,51,70,112],"observed":[21],"around":[22],"holidays.":[23,45],"This":[24],"study":[25],"employs":[26],"a":[27,82,159,170],"top-down":[28],"approach":[29],"to":[30,114,148],"forecasting":[33,54,96,131,150,154],"using":[34],"meteorological":[35],"data":[36,40,80,87,147],"new":[38],"untraditional":[39],"types":[41],"such":[42],"as":[43],"school":[44],"Three":[46],"different":[47],"machine":[48],"learning":[49],"models":[50,69,129],"benchmarked":[52],"for":[53],"aggregated":[56],"of":[59,65,75,85,94,98,118,143,175],"large":[61],"system":[64],"Aarhus,":[66],"Denmark.":[67],"trained":[71],"on":[72,163,177],"six":[73],"years":[74],"measured":[76],"hourly":[77],"blind":[83],"year":[84],"test":[86],"withheld":[89],"until":[90],"final":[92,103],"testing":[93],"capabilities":[97],"models.":[100],"In":[101],"this":[102,197],"test,":[104],"forecasts":[106,122,185],"from":[107],"Danish":[109],"Meteorological":[110],"Institute":[111],"used":[113],"measure":[115],"performance":[117,132,155,198],"under":[123],"realistic":[124],"operational":[125],"conditions.":[126],"We":[127],"demonstrate":[128],"with":[130,158],"that":[133],"can":[134],"match":[135],"state-of-the-art":[136],"commercial":[137],"software":[138],"explore":[140],"benefit":[142],"including":[144,191],"local":[145,192],"holiday":[146,167,193],"improve":[149],"accuracy.":[151],"best":[153],"achieved":[157],"support":[160],"vector":[161],"regression":[162],"weather,":[164],"calendar,":[165],"data,":[168],"yielding":[169],"mean":[171],"absolute":[172],"percentage":[173],"error":[174],"6.4%":[176],"15\u201338":[179],"h":[180],"horizon.":[181],"On":[182,195],"average,":[183],"could":[186],"be":[187],"improved":[188],"slightly":[189],"data.":[194],"holidays,":[196],"improvement":[199],"was":[200],"more":[201],"significant.":[202]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":14},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":14},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":12},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":5}],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2018-07-10T00:00:00"}
