{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2808961969","doi":"https://doi.org/10.4102/jtscm.v12i0.342","title":"A heavy goods vehicle fleet forecast for South Africa","display_name":"A heavy goods vehicle fleet forecast for South Africa","publication_year":2018,"publication_date":"2018-06-20","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2808961969","doi":"https://doi.org/10.4102/jtscm.v12i0.342","mag":"2808961969"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.4102/jtscm.v12i0.342","doi":"https://doi.org/10.4102/jtscm.v12i0.342","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.4102/jtscm.v12i0.342","pdf_url":"https://jtscm.co.za/index.php/jtscm/article/download/342/671","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764671874","display_name":"Journal of Transport and Supply Chain Management","issn_l":"1995-5235","issn":["1995-5235","2310-8789"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["dhet","doaj","norway-1","poland-40","russia-white-list-3","scielo"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315322","host_organization_name":"AOSIS","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315322"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["AOSIS"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Transport and Supply Chain Management","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://jtscm.co.za/index.php/jtscm/article/download/342/671","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5038409127","display_name":"Jan Hendrik Havenga","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2844-719X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2844-719X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I26092322","display_name":"Stellenbosch University","ror":"https://ror.org/05bk57929","country_code":"ZA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I26092322"]}],"countries":["ZA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jan H. Havenga","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Logistics, Stellenbosch University"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Logistics, Stellenbosch University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I26092322"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5023331508","display_name":"Phillippus P.T. Le Roux","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I26092322","display_name":"Stellenbosch University","ror":"https://ror.org/05bk57929","country_code":"ZA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I26092322"]}],"countries":["ZA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Phillippus P.T. Le Roux","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Logistics, Stellenbosch University"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Logistics, Stellenbosch University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I26092322"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5076987096","display_name":"Zane P. Simpson","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1641-6038","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1641-6038"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I26092322","display_name":"Stellenbosch University","ror":"https://ror.org/05bk57929","country_code":"ZA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I26092322"]}],"countries":["ZA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zane P. Simpson","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Industrial Engineering,, Stellenbosch University"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Industrial Engineering,, Stellenbosch University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I26092322"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I26092322"],"apc_list":{"value":11517,"currency":"ZAR","value_usd":625},"apc_paid":{"value":11517,"currency":"ZAR","value_usd":625},"fwci":1.5469,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":7,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.83862543,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":95},"biblio":{"volume":"12","issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12725","display_name":"transportation and logistics systems","score":0.5077999830245972,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3313","display_name":"Transportation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12725","display_name":"transportation and logistics systems","score":0.5077999830245972,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3313","display_name":"Transportation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12306","display_name":"Urban and Freight Transport Logistics","score":0.3490999937057495,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2215","display_name":"Building and Construction"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12984","display_name":"Transport and Logistics Innovations","score":0.10520000010728836,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2209","display_name":"Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/modal-shift","display_name":"modal shift","score":0.5450000166893005},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/gravity-modelling","display_name":"gravity modelling","score":0.8460000157356262},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/input-output-model","display_name":"input-output model","score":0.8299999833106995},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/intermodal-freight-transportation","display_name":"intermodal freight transport","score":0.6899999976158142},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/performance-based-standards","display_name":"performance-based standards","score":0.7120000123977661},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/car-use","display_name":"car use","score":0.7200000286102295},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/logistics-costs","display_name":"logistics costs","score":0.6990000009536743},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/south-africa","display_name":"South Africa","score":0.6690000295639038}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779343474","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3109175","display_name":"Context (archaeology)","level":2,"score":0.705878496170044},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C22212356","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q775325","display_name":"Transport engineering","level":1,"score":0.6252986788749695},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2992902843","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1413618","display_name":"Modal shift","level":3,"score":0.5612958073616028},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.53347247838974},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C532444271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2516403","display_name":"Traffic management","level":2,"score":0.48334619402885437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187452473","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2897903","display_name":"Goods and services","level":2,"score":0.462738573551178},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780378061","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25351891","display_name":"Service (business)","level":2,"score":0.44470396637916565},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134560507","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q753291","display_name":"Environmental economics","level":1,"score":0.37061041593551636},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.306915819644928},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.18945005536079407},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136264566","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q159810","display_name":"Economy","level":1,"score":0.14913594722747803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.14542001485824585},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162853370","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39809","display_name":"Marketing","level":1,"score":0.14457279443740845},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C539828613","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q178512","display_name":"Public transport","level":2,"score":0.143428772687912},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.4102/jtscm.v12i0.342","doi":"https://doi.org/10.4102/jtscm.v12i0.342","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.4102/jtscm.v12i0.342","pdf_url":"https://jtscm.co.za/index.php/jtscm/article/download/342/671","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764671874","display_name":"Journal of Transport and Supply Chain Management","issn_l":"1995-5235","issn":["1995-5235","2310-8789"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["dhet","doaj","norway-1","poland-40","russia-white-list-3","scielo"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315322","host_organization_name":"AOSIS","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315322"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["AOSIS"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Transport and Supply Chain Management","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:c9c6ed80010945509d73530317e1e200","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/c9c6ed80010945509d73530317e1e200","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Transport and Supply Chain Management, Vol 12, Iss 0, Pp e1-e12 (2018)","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/108494","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/108494","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400300","display_name":"SUNScholar (Stellenbosch University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I26092322","host_organization_name":"Stellenbosch University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I26092322"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.4102/jtscm.v12i0.342","doi":"https://doi.org/10.4102/jtscm.v12i0.342","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.4102/jtscm.v12i0.342","pdf_url":"https://jtscm.co.za/index.php/jtscm/article/download/342/671","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764671874","display_name":"Journal of Transport and Supply Chain Management","issn_l":"1995-5235","issn":["1995-5235","2310-8789"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["dhet","doaj","norway-1","poland-40","russia-white-list-3","scielo"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315322","host_organization_name":"AOSIS","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315322"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["AOSIS"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Transport and Supply Chain Management","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":1.0,"display_name":"Industry, innovation and infrastructure","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/9"}],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2808961969.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2808961969.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":22,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W211900760","https://openalex.org/W1494629955","https://openalex.org/W1965144025","https://openalex.org/W1974158885","https://openalex.org/W2037494669","https://openalex.org/W2037562003","https://openalex.org/W2040299124","https://openalex.org/W2040951677","https://openalex.org/W2043702860","https://openalex.org/W2043883244","https://openalex.org/W2081394690","https://openalex.org/W2083800777","https://openalex.org/W2095673793","https://openalex.org/W2096563501","https://openalex.org/W2107827420","https://openalex.org/W2116372527","https://openalex.org/W2119488352","https://openalex.org/W2144451628","https://openalex.org/W2400939869","https://openalex.org/W4200431618","https://openalex.org/W4206100916","https://openalex.org/W4239637195"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2107827420","https://openalex.org/W2511621846","https://openalex.org/W1577283533","https://openalex.org/W2892188547","https://openalex.org/W2893767327","https://openalex.org/W1919948084","https://openalex.org/W2117694411","https://openalex.org/W2585051660","https://openalex.org/W2811069387","https://openalex.org/W1526554579"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Purpose:":[0],"To":[1],"develop":[2],"and":[3,89,118,133,188,225,250,274],"apply":[4],"a":[5,43,54,200,254],"methodology":[6,175,255],"to":[7,15,73,165,179,230,270],"calculate":[8],"the":[9,25,39,64,75,105,124,166,170,182,219,232,258,264],"heavy":[10,65,259],"goods":[11,66,260],"vehicle":[12,67,71,120,261],"fleet":[13,68,146,262],"required":[14],"meet":[16],"South":[17,86],"Africa\u2019s":[18,87],"projected":[19,37],"road":[20,60,78,97,115,226],"freight":[21,30,34,79,116,131,227,236,242,268],"transport":[22,31,80,91,117,204,237,243,269],"demand":[23,92,205],"within":[24,263],"context":[26,265],"of":[27,42,85,108,126,141,169,199,221,234,266],"total":[28,267],"surface":[29],"demand.Methodology:":[32],"Total":[33],"flows":[35],"are":[36,185],"through":[38,104],"gravity":[40],"modelling":[41],"geographically":[44],"disaggregated":[45],"input\u2013output":[46],"model.":[47],"Three":[48],"modal":[49],"shift":[50],"scenarios,":[51],"defined":[52],"over":[53],"15-year":[55],"forecast":[56],"period,":[57],"combined":[58],"with":[59],"efficiency":[61],"improvements,":[62],"inform":[63,271],"for":[69,207,218,256],"different":[70],"types":[72],"serve":[74],"estimated":[76],"future":[77,197],"demand.Findings:":[81],"The":[82,99,139,174,196],"largest":[83],"portion":[84],"high":[88],"growing":[90,235],"will":[93,245],"remain":[94],"on":[95,145],"long-distance":[96],"corridors.":[98],"impact":[100,140,233],"can":[101,176,190],"be":[102,177,193],"moderated":[103],"concurrent":[106],"introduction":[107],"domestic":[109,222],"intermodal":[110,223],"solutions,":[111],"performance-based":[112,228],"standards":[113,229],"in":[114,202],"improved":[119],"utilisation.":[121],"This":[122],"presupposes":[123],"prioritisation":[125],"collaborative":[127],"initiatives":[128],"between":[129],"government,":[130],"owners":[132],"logistics":[134,248],"service":[135],"providers.Research":[136],"limitations:":[137],"(1)":[138],"short-distance":[142],"urban":[143],"movements":[144],"numbers":[147],"is":[148,159],"not":[149,160,192,211],"included":[150],"yet.":[151],"(2)":[152],"Seasonality,":[153],"which":[154],"negatively":[155],"influences":[156],"bi-directional":[157],"flows,":[158],"taken":[161],"into":[162],"account":[163],"owing":[164],"annual":[167],"nature":[168],"macroeconomic":[171],"data.":[172],"(3)":[173],"applied":[178],"other":[180],"countries;":[181],"input":[183],"data":[184],"however":[186],"country-specific":[187],"findings":[189],"therefore":[191],"generalised.":[194],"(4)":[195],"possibility":[198],"reduction":[201],"absolute":[203],"through,":[206],"example,":[208],"reshoring":[209],"have":[210],"been":[212],"modelled":[213],"yet.Practical":[214],"implications:":[215,239],"Provides":[216],"impetus":[217],"implementation":[220],"solutions":[224,244],"mitigate":[231],"demand.Societal":[238],"More":[240],"efficient":[241],"reduce":[246],"national":[247],"costs":[249],"freight-related":[251],"externalities.Originality:":[252],"Develops":[253],"forecasting":[257],"government":[272],"policy":[273],"industry":[275],"actions.":[276]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-10-01T08:54:57.152042","created_date":"2018-06-29T00:00:00"}