{"id":"https://openalex.org/W28080132","doi":null,"title":"Long-Range Forecasting For International Markets: The Use of Causal Models","display_name":"Long-Range Forecasting For International Markets: The Use of Causal Models","publication_year":1968,"publication_date":"1968-10-28","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W28080132","mag":"28080132"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:repository.upenn.edu:marketing_papers-1189","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://repository.upenn.edu/marketing_papers/172","pdf_url":"https://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1189&context=marketing_papers","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196331","display_name":"Scholarly Commons (University of Pennsylvania)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I79576946","host_organization_name":"University of Pennsylvania","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I79576946"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Marketing Papers","raw_type":"text"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1189&context=marketing_papers","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5036713900","display_name":"J. Scott Armstrong","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0108-0471","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0108-0471"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I79576946","display_name":"University of Pennsylvania","ror":"https://ror.org/00b30xv10","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I79576946"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"J. Scott Armstrong","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0108-0471","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I79576946"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5036713900"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I79576946"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":1.7218,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":6,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.7883885,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":93},"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12659","display_name":"Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12368","display_name":"Grey System Theory Applications","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/long-term-forecasting","display_name":"long-term forecasting","score":0.9700000286102295},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/causal-modeling","display_name":"causal models","score":0.9200000166893005},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/naive-model","display_name":"naive model","score":0.7979999780654907},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/international-markets","display_name":"international markets","score":0.8059999942779541},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-accuracy","display_name":"forecast accuracy","score":0.7300000190734863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/camera-market","display_name":"camera market","score":0.9150000214576721},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/international-data","display_name":"international data","score":0.38199999928474426}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11671645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5054567","display_name":"Causal model","level":2,"score":0.6035537719726562},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204323151","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q905424","display_name":"Range (aeronautics)","level":2,"score":0.5520820021629333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C774472","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6760393","display_name":"Margin (machine learning)","level":2,"score":0.5508695244789124},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778023277","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q321703","display_name":"Premise","level":2,"score":0.5088903903961182},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4903745651245117},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.46929270029067993},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C26517878","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q228039","display_name":"Key (lock)","level":2,"score":0.45854783058166504},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779530757","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1207505","display_name":"Quality (philosophy)","level":2,"score":0.44108328223228455},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.38762083649635315},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.13462349772453308},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.12381461262702942},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C146978453","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3798668","display_name":"Aerospace engineering","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41895202","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8162","display_name":"Linguistics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C38652104","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3510521","display_name":"Computer security","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111472728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9471","display_name":"Epistemology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142724271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7208","display_name":"Pathology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:repository.upenn.edu:marketing_papers-1189","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://repository.upenn.edu/marketing_papers/172","pdf_url":"https://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1189&context=marketing_papers","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196331","display_name":"Scholarly Commons (University of Pennsylvania)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I79576946","host_organization_name":"University of Pennsylvania","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I79576946"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Marketing Papers","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:repository.upenn.edu:20.500.14332/39331","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://repository.upenn.edu/handle/20.500.14332/39331","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402083","display_name":"ScholarlyCommons (University of Pennsylvania)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I79576946","host_organization_name":"University of Pennsylvania","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I79576946"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"published","raw_type":"Book Chapter"},{"id":"mag:28080132","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID1950441_code116288.pdf?abstractid=1950441&mirid=1&type=2","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210172589","display_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","issn_l":"1556-5068","issn":["1556-5068"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1318003438","host_organization_name":"RELX Group (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1318003438"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:repository.upenn.edu:marketing_papers-1189","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://repository.upenn.edu/marketing_papers/172","pdf_url":"https://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1189&context=marketing_papers","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196331","display_name":"Scholarly Commons (University of Pennsylvania)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I79576946","host_organization_name":"University of Pennsylvania","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I79576946"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Marketing Papers","raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W28080132.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W28080132.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W179290486","https://openalex.org/W2033371956","https://openalex.org/W2157545956","https://openalex.org/W7095726760","https://openalex.org/W1860060699","https://openalex.org/W7045822331","https://openalex.org/W2587120063","https://openalex.org/W4385069425","https://openalex.org/W4391216006","https://openalex.org/W2058913769"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Many":[0],"researchers":[1],"appear":[2],"to":[3,12,35],"operate":[4],"under":[5],"the":[6,29,80,90,109],"impression":[7],"that":[8,31,52,66,108],"causal":[9,32,94,114],"models":[10,21,33,41,95,115,118],"lead":[11,34],"more":[13],"accurate":[14],"forecasts":[15,37],"than":[16,38],"those":[17],"provided":[18],"by":[19],"naive":[20,40,117],"(or":[22],"\u201cprojections\u201d).":[23],"This":[24],"study":[25,100],"was":[26],"based":[27],"on":[28],"premise":[30],"better":[36],"do":[39],"in":[42,70,79,96,104],"certain":[43],"situations.":[44],"The":[45],"key":[46],"element":[47],"of":[48,67,84,92,101,111,113,120],"these":[49],"situations":[50],"is":[51,65,119],"there":[53],"are":[54],"\u201clarge":[55],"changes.\u201d":[56],"One":[57],"situation":[58],"where":[59],"large":[60],"changes":[61],"might":[62],"be":[63],"expected":[64],"long-range":[68,72],"forecasting\u2014and,":[69],"particular,":[71],"forecasting":[73],"for":[74],"international":[75,85],"markets.":[76],"Recent":[77],"improvements":[78],"quality":[81],"and":[82],"availability":[83],"data":[86],"have":[87],"substantially":[88],"reduced":[89],"cost":[91],"developing":[93],"this":[97],"situation.":[98],"A":[99],"camera":[102],"markets":[103],"seventeen":[105],"countries":[106],"indicated":[107],"margin":[110],"superiority":[112],"over":[116],"great":[121],"practical":[122],"importance.":[123]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
