{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2803093190","doi":"https://doi.org/10.26531/vnbu2018.243.004","title":"A Neutral Real Interest Rate in the Case of a Small Open Economy: Application to Ukraine","display_name":"A Neutral Real Interest Rate in the Case of a Small Open Economy: Application to Ukraine","publication_year":2018,"publication_date":"2018-03-29","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2803093190","doi":"https://doi.org/10.26531/vnbu2018.243.004","mag":"2803093190"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.26531/vnbu2018.243.004","doi":"https://doi.org/10.26531/vnbu2018.243.004","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.26531/vnbu2018.243.004","pdf_url":"http://journal.bank.gov.ua/uploads/articles/243_1.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210237494","display_name":"Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine","issn_l":"2414-987X","issn":["2414-987X"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["erih-plus","poland-20"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"diamond","oa_url":"http://journal.bank.gov.ua/uploads/articles/243_1.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5070872560","display_name":"Anton Grui","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4405262162","display_name":"National Bank of Ukraine","ror":"https://ror.org/01r72g809","country_code":"UA","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4405262162"]}],"countries":["UA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Anton Grui","raw_affiliation_strings":["National Bank of Ukraine"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"National Bank of Ukraine","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4405262162"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5008957733","display_name":"Volodymyr Lepushynskyi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7206-4287","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7206-4287"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4405262162","display_name":"National Bank of Ukraine","ror":"https://ror.org/01r72g809","country_code":"UA","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4405262162"]}],"countries":["UA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Volodymyr Lepushynskyi","raw_affiliation_strings":["National Bank of Ukraine"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7206-4287","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"National Bank of Ukraine","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4405262162"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5045231576","display_name":"Sergiy Nikolaychuk","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4405262162","display_name":"National Bank of Ukraine","ror":"https://ror.org/01r72g809","country_code":"UA","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4405262162"]}],"countries":["UA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sergiy Nikolaychuk","raw_affiliation_strings":["National Bank of Ukraine"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"National Bank of Ukraine","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4405262162"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4405262162"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":4.9394,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":10,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.95182855,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":"243","first_page":"4","last_page":"4"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10503","display_name":"Global Financial Crisis and Policies","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13172","display_name":"Economic Issues in Ukraine","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/natural-rate-of-interest","display_name":"natural rate of interest","score":0.8870000243186951},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/real-interest-rates","display_name":"real interest rates","score":0.8799999952316284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/small-open-economy","display_name":"small open economy","score":0.9829999804496765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/potential-output","display_name":"potential output","score":0.6840000152587891},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/inflation-target","display_name":"inflation target","score":0.8650000095367432},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/risk-premium","display_name":"risk premium","score":0.7400000095367432},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/real-exchange-rate","display_name":"real exchange rate","score":0.9919999837875366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cost-of-capital","display_name":"cost of capital","score":0.8730000257492065},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/monetary-policy","display_name":"monetary policy","score":0.7310000061988831},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/disinflation","display_name":"disinflation","score":0.8640000224113464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/national-bank-of-ukraine","display_name":"National Bank of Ukraine","score":0.753000020980835},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ukraine","display_name":"Ukraine","score":0.4869999885559082},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/kalman-filter","display_name":"Kalman filter","score":0.8029999732971191},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/unobserved-components-model","display_name":"unobserved components model","score":0.843999981880188}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780569737","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1228734","display_name":"Disinflation","level":3,"score":0.7630727291107178},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.7548417448997498},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154815372","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1140421","display_name":"Real interest rate","level":3,"score":0.7052686810493469},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175025494","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q179179","display_name":"Interest rate","level":2,"score":0.6861595511436462},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776988154","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q66100","display_name":"Exchange rate","level":2,"score":0.6612040996551514},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C200941418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q273508","display_name":"Inflation (cosmology)","level":2,"score":0.5953255295753479},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126285488","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q178476","display_name":"Monetary policy","level":2,"score":0.5409767031669617},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C113679137","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10495747","display_name":"Fisher hypothesis","level":4,"score":0.5360954403877258},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C556758197","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q580018","display_name":"Monetary economics","level":1,"score":0.5262510180473328},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778135664","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1929451","display_name":"Open economy","level":3,"score":0.49078497290611267},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21931767","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8798","display_name":"Ukrainian","level":2,"score":0.48055747151374817},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777883944","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7543547","display_name":"Small open economy","level":3,"score":0.46003279089927673},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151541453","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q523022","display_name":"Risk premium","level":2,"score":0.4450675845146179},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139719470","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39680","display_name":"Macroeconomics","level":1,"score":0.3696592450141907},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41895202","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8162","display_name":"Linguistics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33332235","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q18362","display_name":"Theoretical physics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.26531/vnbu2018.243.004","doi":"https://doi.org/10.26531/vnbu2018.243.004","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.26531/vnbu2018.243.004","pdf_url":"http://journal.bank.gov.ua/uploads/articles/243_1.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210237494","display_name":"Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine","issn_l":"2414-987X","issn":["2414-987X"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["erih-plus","poland-20"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:ukb:journl:y:2018:i:243:p:4-20","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://journal.bank.gov.ua/en/article/2018/243/01","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:49783d6d130f459fa7f86526bdccc769","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/49783d6d130f459fa7f86526bdccc769","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, Iss 243, Pp 4-20 (2018)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.26531/vnbu2018.243.004","doi":"https://doi.org/10.26531/vnbu2018.243.004","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.26531/vnbu2018.243.004","pdf_url":"http://journal.bank.gov.ua/uploads/articles/243_1.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210237494","display_name":"Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine","issn_l":"2414-987X","issn":["2414-987X"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["erih-plus","poland-20"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2803093190.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2803093190.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":43,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W581048642","https://openalex.org/W628730655","https://openalex.org/W1511287027","https://openalex.org/W1550452056","https://openalex.org/W1600001357","https://openalex.org/W1606893890","https://openalex.org/W1997843546","https://openalex.org/W2018747484","https://openalex.org/W2050209528","https://openalex.org/W2062386826","https://openalex.org/W2070720254","https://openalex.org/W2072494087","https://openalex.org/W2084941947","https://openalex.org/W2096064009","https://openalex.org/W2098683532","https://openalex.org/W2100188156","https://openalex.org/W2132011844","https://openalex.org/W2140898820","https://openalex.org/W2144395073","https://openalex.org/W2189139855","https://openalex.org/W2199870059","https://openalex.org/W2287260750","https://openalex.org/W2323266160","https://openalex.org/W2517821981","https://openalex.org/W2563284437","https://openalex.org/W2591679095","https://openalex.org/W2746498405","https://openalex.org/W2747195791","https://openalex.org/W2913637815","https://openalex.org/W2953552107","https://openalex.org/W2955583486","https://openalex.org/W2955646720","https://openalex.org/W2956025372","https://openalex.org/W3020973853","https://openalex.org/W3021811462","https://openalex.org/W3023077672","https://openalex.org/W3121830457","https://openalex.org/W3122315136","https://openalex.org/W3125098045","https://openalex.org/W4210307857","https://openalex.org/W4255550957","https://openalex.org/W6617071934","https://openalex.org/W6751116865"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3197560840","https://openalex.org/W2039280110","https://openalex.org/W2809770090","https://openalex.org/W2805903409","https://openalex.org/W3197103736","https://openalex.org/W4416193040","https://openalex.org/W4285670946","https://openalex.org/W4303467891","https://openalex.org/W2887429894","https://openalex.org/W1977429181"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0],"paper":[1],"measures":[2],"a":[3,13,17,26,30,39,150],"neutral":[4,31,79,121,171],"interest":[5,32,41,80],"rate":[6,42,81,115,122,168,172],"in":[7,100,140,146,155],"Ukraine":[8],"by":[9,84],"means":[10],"of":[11,29,59,75,89,133,136,165],"applying":[12],"Kalman":[14],"filter":[15],"to":[16,125,138,144,183],"semistructural":[18],"model":[19],"with":[20,44],"unobserved":[21],"components.":[22],"We":[23],"rely":[24],"on":[25,106],"medium-term":[27],"concept":[28],"rate,":[33],"where":[34],"it":[35],"is":[36,82,123],"defined":[37],"as":[38,132],"real":[40,102,113,141],"consistent":[43],"output":[45],"at":[46,52],"its":[47,53,129],"potential":[48],"level":[49,55,131],"and":[50,68,91,98,117,169],"inflation":[51,152],"target":[54],"after":[56],"the":[57,71,78,85,101,120,134,156,159,162,170,178],"effects":[58],"all":[60],"cyclical":[61],"shocks":[62],"have":[63],"disappeared.":[64],"Under":[65],"this":[66],"concept,":[67],"accounting":[69],"for":[70,109],"small":[72],"open":[73],"nature":[74],"Ukrainian":[76],"economy,":[77],"determined":[83],"global":[86],"economy\u2019s":[87],"cost":[88],"capital":[90],"domestic":[92],"long-term":[93,107],"factors":[94],"that":[95],"influence":[96],"risk-premium":[97],"changes":[99],"exchange":[103,114],"rate.":[104],"Conditional":[105],"forecasts":[108],"output,":[110],"demographic":[111],"trends,":[112],"changes,":[116],"risk":[118],"premium,":[119],"projected":[124],"decrease":[126],"gradually":[127],"from":[128],"2.5%":[130],"beginning":[135],"2018":[137],"2%":[139],"terms,":[142],"or":[143],"7%":[145],"nominal":[147],"terms":[148],"under":[149],"5%":[151],"target.":[153],"However,":[154],"following":[157],"years,":[158],"gap":[160],"between":[161],"National":[163],"Bank":[164],"Ukraine\u2019s":[166],"policy":[167],"should":[173],"remain":[174],"positive":[175],"\u2013":[176],"reflecting":[177],"tight":[179],"monetary":[180],"stance":[181],"needed":[182],"ensure":[184],"stable":[185],"disinflation.":[186]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-10-16T09:59:22.235173","created_date":"2018-05-17T00:00:00"}